Computer Picks for Super Bowl 60 – Seahawks vs Patriots

• Computer model projects a final score for Seahawks vs Patriots
• What the formula says about the Super Bowl 60 spread and total
• Computer pick vs expert prediction: See where I disagree below

Our computer model has crunched the numbers on Super Bowl 60, and it’s projecting a tight one between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots.

The formula ran thousands of simulations factoring in defensive efficiency, offensive pacing, and quarterback performance splits. Seattle wins 67.3% of those simulations, but the margin stays razor thin.

Here’s what the model sees.

Super Bowl 60 Computer Score Prediction

The computer model projects:

That 0.9-point margin is the mathematical mean derived from thousands of simulations. The Seahawks have the better overall profile, but the gap isn’t big enough to justify laying 4.5 points.

Seahawks vs Patriots Spread: Computer Pick

• The model likes New England +4.5 (-110 at BetMGM).

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Seattle’s defense is historically elite. They allowed just 17.2 points per game this season, the best mark in the NFL. They rank first in total DVOA and first in EPA allowed per play since their Week 8 bye. That’s the foundation for why the model gives them the edge.

But the Patriots have enough offensive firepower to stay in it. Drake Maye finished fourth in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) at 5.2% and gives New England explosive-play access that can erase a drive-quality deficit.

The model sees Seattle slightly more likely to win each possession, but New England is much more likely than a typical underdog to steal one or two possessions via chunk plays or short fields. That clusters outcomes around Seahawks by 1-4 rather than blowouts.

The betting market agrees. While 67% of public tickets are on Seattle, six-figure wagers from professional bettors have landed on New England at +4.5. The line has actually moved toward the Patriots at some books, with the spread sitting at +3.5 in spots.

Super Bowl 60 Over/Under: Computer Prediction

• The model likes Under 45.5.

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A projected final of 21.5-20.6 gives you a combined total of 42.1 points. That’s well under the posted number. The reasoning comes down to pace and red zone efficiency.

Both teams rank in the bottom five in offensive speed, each averaging 30.6 seconds per play. That limits the game to roughly 10-11 possessions per team. Fewer possessions means fewer scoring opportunities.

Red zone defense is another factor. Seattle allows touchdowns on only 50.91% of red zone trips, fifth-best in the NFL. New England’s defense has surrendered just a 25.0% touchdown rate over their last three games. Both units force field goals instead of touchdowns, which keeps the total down.

Simulation models across the industry show the under hitting in roughly 59% of runs at this number. The most likely outcomes cluster in that low-40s band.

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Super Bowl 60 Expert Pick:

• My Expert Pick: Patriots Cover First Half Spread

I’m not confident New England covers the full game spread. I could easily see Seattle winning by a full touchdown. But I love the Patriots in the first half.

Here’s the stat that matters most: including the playoffs, New England has led at halftime in 17 of 20 games this season. That’s tied with the 1984 49ers for the most halftime leads in the Super Bowl era. The Patriots also went 14-5-1 ATS in the first half during the regular season, the best mark in the league.

New England is built to start fast. They led the NFL with 16.5 first-half points per game, more than a field goal above league average and ahead of Seattle’s 14.9. Their scripted drives and early-down passing efficiency show up before defenses have time to adjust.

First Half Defense Stats (Including Playoffs)

Both defenses are elite in the first half. Seattle allows fewer points, but New England generates more pressure. That pass rush could disrupt Seattle’s scripted plays early.

Seattle’s edge is more of a second-half thing. Their defense is built to choke you out over time with depth and disguises. That shows up in second-half scoring suppression more than immediate first-drive dominance.

The model projecting Seahawks 21.5, Patriots 20.6 is basically saying “Patriots hang or lead early, Seahawks win the attrition battle late.” That’s exactly the game script that favors taking New England in the first half.

There’s also a matchup element worth noting. Seattle’s rookie standout safety Nick Emmanwori suffered a late-week ankle injury. If he’s less than 100%, it could throw off Seattle’s game plan early enough to matter for the first-half market.

I actually have the full game spread closer to Seahawks -5, which is why I’m not riding New England for 60 minutes. But the first half is different. Seattle winning the first half by exactly 3 is probably the most likely outcome, which is why +3.5 past that key number is the play.

BetMGM has New England +3.5 (1H) at -120. That’s the number I’m taking.

Super Bowl 60 Best Bet

• Pick: Patriots +3.5 First Half (-120 at BetMGM)

Odds as of Feb.8, 2026. New customers can claim the FanDuel promo code and get a bonus to bet on Super Bowl 60.

Seahawks vs Patriots Odds

The line opened at Seahawks -3 and has climbed to -4.5 through early action on Seattle. Some books have moved back to -3.5 or even -2.5 on the Patriots side after big money came in on New England. The total has drifted down from 46.5 to 45.5.

For more on this matchup, check out our Super Bowl betting trends and prop betting guide.