BYU vs Arizona Predictions & Expert Picks on ESPN (Feb 18)

Published: February 18, 2026 at 6:15 pm EST

Arizona faces BYU again tonight. — Jan 26, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Brayden Burries (5) drives while being defended by BYU Cougars forward Kennard Davis Jr. (30) during the second half at Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

No. 4 Arizona will try to end a two-game losing streak and sweep the season series vs No. 23 BYU
Sharp bettors are fading the public consensus on the moneyline, identifying significant value on the road underdog
Our analysis forecasts a fast-paced shootout, highlighting value on the Over for BYU at Arizona

Unbeaten no more, No. 4 Arizona suddenly finds itself trying to stop the bleeding.

The Wildcats started the season 23-0 but have lost two in a row. Tonight, they’ll host No. 23 BYU. Tip-off is set for 9 pm, ET (ESPN).

Arizona (23-2, 10-2 Big 12) is now a half-game behind Houston in the conference standings. BYU (19-6, 7-5 Big 12) has won two in a row.

Arizona beat BYU 86-83 on Jan. 31 and now is going for the season series sweep, at home.

Read on for our breakdown of the odds, betting trends, and key mismatches to identify the best value on the board for BYU at Arizona.

BYU vs Arizona Best Bets & Predictions

With Arizona struggling to regain its rhythm and BYU arriving with the Big 12’s second-leading scorer, the betting markets have produced actionable lines for this Wednesday clash. The 11.5-point consensus spread appears inflated relative to the current form of both rosters, creating an opportunity to back the road underdog.

Here are the top plays for this Top 25 matchup.

Spread Pick: BYU +12.5 (-110 at Bet365 and DraftKings)

Historically, the McKale Center is a fortress, but asking Arizona to cover a double-digit spread against a ranked conference opponent while navigating roster depletion is a significant ask. The Wildcats are dealing with the absence of key rotation pieces, including freshman forward Koa Peat, which exposes depth issues that BYU is equipped to exploit.

The Cougars possess the offensive firepower to keep pace, led by AJ Dybantsa, who is averaging a stellar 24.4 points per game (2nd in the Big 12). Dybantsa is scoring with elite efficiency, shooting 53.6% from the field, presenting a mismatch for an Arizona defense that has looked vulnerable in recent outings.

Crucially, BYU has demonstrated resilience despite the season-ending injury to Richie Saunders. In his absence, Robert Wright III has elevated his production, recently exploding for 39 points against Colorado. Wright III is averaging 18.7 points and 4.9 assists per game, providing the perimeter creation needed to break Arizona’s pressure. While Arizona may secure the straight-up win, an 11.5-point margin is too generous for a team currently trying to stabilize its rotation.

Total Prediction: Over 164.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Oddsmakers have set a substantial total at 165.5 (consensus), yet the advanced metrics suggest these offenses will clear the bar. They combined for 169 points in the first meeting. Both programs rank in the top tier of adjusted tempo and possess the personnel to convert transition opportunities into points.

Arizona’s Interior Force: The Wildcats generate offense through relentless rim pressure. Tobe Awaka averages 9.7 rebounds per game and shoots 60.5% from the field. His prowess on the offensive glass (nearly 4 offensive boards per game) extends possessions and generates high-percentage second-chance points.
BYU’s Shot Making: The Cougars maintain elite spacing. Dybantsa and Wright III are shooting roughly 49% or better from the floor. Even without Saunders, the system generates open looks.
Defensive Context: In marquee Big 12 matchups, overs have been profitable when star power aligns. With Brayden Burries (15.7 PPG) looking to ignite Arizona’s offense in a bounce-back spot, expect a track meet played in the 80s for both sides.

Public Betting Splits & Trends

The college basketball public betting data for this game highlights a significant divergence between ticket volume and money handle, particularly on the moneyline. This creates a classic “Pros vs. Joes” scenario where public sentiment conflicts with larger wagers.

Here is the breakdown of the action at ESPN Bet and other major sportsbooks for Wednesday night.

Spread Trends

The betting public is heavily favoring the road underdog. Approximately 74.69% of spread bets are on BYU, indicating that the average bettor views the 11.5-point line as excessive for a Top 25 matchup.

However, the handle reveals a sharper opinion. Despite holding only 25.31% of the tickets, Arizona has attracted 53.59% of the total money wagered on the spread. This suggests that while casual bettors are grabbing the points, larger wagers are backing the Wildcats to cover at home. Our prediction aligns with the ticket count in this instance, prioritizing the situational value on BYU.

Moneyline: Sharp vs. Public Alert

The moneyline market presents the most actionable data signal.

Public Sentiment: Casual bettors view an Arizona victory as a lock, likely using the Wildcats as a parlay anchor. Consequently, 95.23% of all moneyline tickets are on Arizona.
Sharp Action: In stark contrast, BYU accounts for 60.34% of the moneyline stake, despite receiving less than 5% of the bets.

This massive discrepancy—over 90% of bets on Arizona versus over 60% of money on BYU—indicates respected bettors are taking significant positions on the Cougars to win outright or hedging large exposures. This heavy sharp interest reinforces the value of the points.

Total Trends

Action on the total shows a slight public preference for a defensive game, with 54.13% of bets and 51.36% of the money on the Under.

Our prediction of Over 165.5 is a contrarian play, fading the modest consensus to back the high-efficiency metrics of two top-tier offenses.

BYU vs Arizona Head-to-Head Stats Comparison

Who has the edge tonight?

Statistic	BYU (Away)	Arizona (Home)
Overall Record	19-6 (7-5 Big 12)	23-2 (10-2 Big 12)
AP Ranking	No. 23	No. 4
RPI Rating	No. 20	No. 3
Strength of Schedule (SOS)	0.5940	0.5882
Points Per Game (Offense)	86.5 PPG	88.2 PPG
Points Allowed (Defense)	74.5 PPG	68.6 PPG
Scoring Margin	+12.0	+19.6
Adjusted Win %	0.7431	0.9099
Opponent Win %	0.6169	0.6021

BYU vs Arizona Odds

The current betting lines for Wednesday’s Big 12 matchup at the McKale Center are listed below.

Moneyline: BYU +542 | Arizona -794
Spread: BYU +11.5 (-110) | Arizona -11.5 (-110)
Total: Over 165.5 (-109) | Under 165.5 (-111)

Odds as of February 18, 2026, from consensus sportsbooks.

Significant movement has occurred since opening. The total has climbed from an opener of 161.5 to 165.5, indicating sharp money anticipates a shootout. Meanwhile, the spread has tightened from Arizona -12.5 to -11.5, showing respect for BYU’s competitiveness despite their injury setbacks.

Implied Probabilities

Removing the vigorish (vig) from the current moneyline odds reveals the following implied win probabilities:

Arizona: 85.1%
BYU: 14.9%

Betting Payouts

The heavy price on Arizona forces bettors to seek alternative markets or accept minimal returns on the moneyline. Here is the potential payout structure for a standard $20 wager:

Betting on Arizona (-794): A $20 bet returns just $2.52 in profit.
Betting on BYU (+542): A $20 upset bet on the Cougars returns a substantial $108.40 in profit.

Chris Wright

A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Chris Wright is an Evergreen and AI editor for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.

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