Picks, Best Bets & How to Watch Indiana vs Purdue (Feb 20)

• #7 Purdue is an 11.5-point favorite over Indiana in Big Ten hoops action tonight
• The Boilermakers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games
• See my picks, best bets and how to watch Indiana vs Purdue on Feb. 20, below

It’s a light night of college hoops on Friday, as just three games featuring ranked programs are on the sked. The biggest matchup in Big Ten country features Indiana visiting #7 Purdue, with the Boilermakers looking to avenge an earlier loss this season to the Hoosiers.

Online sportsbooks like their chances, pegging Purdue as massive 11.5-point favorites in Friday’s college basketball odds. That number is a little too rich for me, and I’m showing value on Indiana to cover the spread.

Here are my Indiana vs Purdue picks and best bets, plus how to watch the Big Ten showdown.

Indiana vs Purdue Picks and Best Bets

ATS Pick: Indiana +11.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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The Boilermakers currently project as a 2 or 3 March Madness seed, and boast the 10th shortest NCAA Tournament champion odds. They haven’t looked like a dominant program for the entire season, in large part to their defense which we’ll discuss, but they do have plenty of things working in their favor.

Let’s start with their guard play. Senior Braden Smith is one of the best point guards in the nation, and enters play averaging 9 assists per game. Purdue’s offense is efficient and potent, and they rarely turn the ball over. The Boilermakers are averaging just 9 giveaways per contest, and lead the nation in assist to turnover margin.

As for their bigs, they’re not the most aggressive bunch, but Trey Kaufman-Renn averages 13 points and 9 boards per outing, and owns some of the best footwork of any forward in the country.

The issue is at the other end of the floor. Purdue is 146th in opponent effective field goal percentage, and 127th in defending the three-point line. They especially struggle with athletic wings, and Indiana has no shortage of those.

Key Statistical Metrics: Indiana vs Purdue

All three of Tucker DeVries, Lamar Wilkerson and Nick Dorn can take advantage of this Boilermakers defense, just like they did back in January when they upset Purdue 72-67. The Hoosiers shoot the ball exceptionally well, ranking 29th in effective field goal percentage, and 24th in shooting efficiency.

They’re one of the best free throw shooting teams in the nation, ranking 7th from the charity stripe, and do an excellent job of limiting turnovers. Defensively, Indiana’s biggest weakness is protecting the basket, but that shouldn’t be an issue tonight as the Boilermakers rank 300th in attacking the rim percentage.

The Hoosiers upset of Purdue earlier this season was no fluke, as they’ve routinely given the Boilermakers all they can handle over the last few years despite typically being ranked lower. They’re 4-3 against Purdue in their last seven meetings, and 5-2 against the spread.

Speaking of ATS records, the Boilermakers are 0-6 versus the number in their last six home games, and are being overvalued in this spot. This line opened at Purdue -10, which is right around where projection models have this game pegged. The spread moved all the way to -12.5 before coming back down a point, but even at 11.5, the value lies with the underdog.

Player Prop Pick: Braden Smith Under 8.5 Assists (+102 at bet365)

Switching over to the college basketball player props market, where I’m actually looking to bet under 8.5 assists for Smith. Sure, he averages slightly more than that per outing, but Indiana’s guards do an excellent job of limiting enemy point guard production, and forcing the ball out of their hands.

The Hoosiers rank 35th in opponent assists per game, and limited Smith to only 5 dimes in their first meeting this season.

Indiana vs Purdue How to Watch

Indiana vs Purdue tips off tonight at 8 pm ET from Mackey Arena, in West Lafayette, IN, and can be watched live on FOX.