Kansas vs Arizona Picks, Best Bets & How to Watch

• No. 2 Arizona is a strong 9.5 point favorite over Kansas Saturday afternoon
• The Jayhawks upset the then #1 ranked Wildcats just two weeks ago
• See my Kansas vs Arizona picks and predictions on Saturday

A pivotal Big 12 Conference duel tips off Saturday afternoon as the Kansas Jayhawks (21-7, 11-4 Big 12, 5-4 road, 18-10-0 ATS) visit the #2 Arizona Wildcats (26-2, 13-2 Big, 14-1 home, 15-12-1 ATS) at 2:00 pm MT / 4:00 pm ET. ESPN will carry the national broadcast.

Kansas handed Arizona its first loss of the season 82-78 February 9th, and the Wildcats subsequently dropped their next battle. To win the Big 12, the Jayhawks need another victory over their rivals, then take the final two affairs, and have Arizona stumble down the stretch. This betting preview dissects the key angles, market movements, and value picks for this high-intensity conference clash.

Kansas vs Arizona Picks & Predictions

In this Kansas vs Arizona tilt, I’m bullish on the underdog Jayhawks to cover the spread, particularly since they just beat Arizona less than three weeks ago without their best player Darryn Peterson. After starting the campaign 1-3 versus top-25 units, the Jayhawks have really improved in that area, sniping five of six victories against top teams in the country. In the last eleven months, KU and ARIZ have battled three times, with Kansas coming out on top twice.

KU vs ARIZ Spread Pick: Kansas Jayhawks +9.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

What also gives me pause about the prospect of the Wildcats covering the -9.5 point spread is that in their last three wins, Arizona has won by exactly seven points each time, which wouldn’t be enough to cover against Kansas. The public is also backing my prediction, with 59% of bets and 75% of the money on the Jayhawks to cover.

Jayhawks vs Wildcats H2H Statistics

In the ten major statistical categories, unsurprisingly Arizona has the edge in seven of them, including record vs top-25 teams, point differential and RPI ranking.

The visitors leading scorer is freshman guard Darryn Peterson, who actually missed the latest meeting due to flu-like symptoms, yet Kansas still won. He’s averaging 19.5 PPG, and is the top prospect for the 2026 NBA Draft. The team boasts three more players who average double digits points per skirmish, with sophomore forward Flory Bidunga a monster on the glass, bringing down 9.2 boards per game, fifth best in the Big 12.

As for the Wildcats, they have a strong contingent, with five players holding down double digits in points, paced by freshmen guard Brayden Burries, who has 15.5 PPG. He’s the 17th ranked prospect for the upcoming draft, according to ESPN. His teammate Koa Peat is ranked one slot ahead of him, as he plays with toughness and physicality.

Kansas vs Arizona Public-Betting Splits

The data from Saturday’s college basketball public betting percentages reveal a divide between wagering the favorites, but then believing the underdogs can cover the spread.

Moneyline Splits

Bettors are showing little hesitation regarding the outright winner with a strong proclivity for Arizona.

• Kansas Jayhawks: 7% of Bets / 25% of Money
• Arizona Wildcats: 93% of Bets / 75% of Money

The overwhelming support for the Wildcats on the moneyline indicates the market views Arizona as a safe leverage piece for parlays, showing little confidence in a Jayhawks upset yet again.

ATS Splits

The spread market highlights a potential value opportunity on the favorite.

• Kansas Jayhawks: 59% of Bets / 75% of Money
• Arizona Wildcats: 41% of Bets / 25% of Money

59% of spread tickets are backing the KU to cover +9.5, and the money percentage for them (75%) shows bettors are thinking they’ll be able to cover. Despite the public believing in Arizona to win the game, they aren’t getting much love to cover the -9.5 point spread, something they haven’t accomplished in their last three victories.

Total Market

• Over 148.5: 85% of Bets / 89% of Money
• Under 148.5: 15% of Bets / 11% of Money

A gargantuan majority of both tickets and handle are on the over 148.5 points at 85% of bets and 89% of money. On the season, Arizona has averaged 87.2 PPG, while their counterparts have 76.6, which totals 163.8, well over the listed total.

Kansas vs Arizona Odds

Saturday’s college basketball odds price the home squad as a considerable favorite, even though they lost by four points to KU less than three weeks ago.

• Moneyline: Arizona -520 | Kansas +385
• Point Spread: Wildcats -9.5 (-106) | Jayhawks +9.5 (-114)
• Total: Over/Under 148.5 (O -112, U -108)

Odds as of 8:45 pm ET, February 27, at FanDuel.

Implied Probabilities and Win Projection

Removing the vig provides the market’s true expectations for the matchup:

• Kansas Win Probability: 18.3%
• Arizona Win Probability: 81.7%

The market assigns Arizona above a 80% chance of victory, consistent with the -520 moneyline price.

Moneyline Payout Calculation

For bettors assessing the risk-reward ratio on a standard $100 wager:

• Betting Kansas (+385): Returns a profit of $385 (Total Payout: $485.00).
• Betting Arizona (-520): Returns a profit of $19.00 (Total Payout: $119.00).

In the March Madness championship odds, the Wildcats can be found at +450 at BetMGM, which is the second shortest odds, while the Jayhawks are +3500, the tenth shortest odds.