See Oscars Odds for Best Actor with Michael B. Jordan Closing the Gap

• The Oscars will be held on March 15, and the odds for Best Actor are tightening
• Awards presentations like BAFTA and the Actor Awards are held in the run-up to the Oscars, and are often seen as a bellwether
• Timothée Chalamet currently has a lead in the prediction markets, but Michael B. Jordan is closing fast as we approach the Academy Awards

At the Oscars, there are some categories that are granted more weight, attention, and long-term cachet than others. One such award is Best Actor. While it is the pinnacle of an actor’s career, voters are notoriously inscrutable. With that, it is best to expect the unexpected with promotional campaigns and assertions that the winner is “obvious,” often ending up completely wrong.

Before the recent pre-Oscars awards shows, notably BAFTA and the Actor Awards, prediction markets suggested that Timothée Chalamet had the Academy Award for Best Actor in the bag for his performance in Marty Supreme. But Robert Aramayo won at the BAFTA Film Awards for his role in I Swear. He was not nominated for an Oscar. Michael B. Jordan won at the Actor Awards for his role in Sinners.

Now, the Best Actor odds have been roiled less than two weeks before the show.

Factors that often come into play in the Best Actor category are not present here. There is no longtime star who has been nominated over and over but came up short every time. Such was the case (as many argued) with Al Pacino in Scent of a Woman. The argument could be made that the Academy gave it to Pacino, in part, as a lifetime achievement award. The same was true with Paul Newman in The Color of Money, when many believed Bob Hoskins should have won for Mona Lisa.

The desire for greater diversity in handing out awards and the current political climate, with Hollywood at large wading into cultural and global concerns, could favor Jordan.

Prediction markets have options to weigh in on the Best Actor award.

Latest Oscars Odds for Best Actor

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Volume is massive for this market, approaching $7.4 million and rising.

As recently as the last week of February, Chalamet’s odds were near 80% to win the award. At the end of January, Leonardo DiCaprio was slightly ahead of Jordan for his performance in One Battle After Another. With Jordan’s win at the Actor Awards, he is now in the mid-30% range, while DiCaprio has cratered to the single digits.

Wagner Moura is just behind DiCaprio for his performance in The Secret Agent. Ethan Hawke brings up the rear for Blue Moon.

If the selection wins the award, whether it is Chalamet, Jordan, DiCaprio, Moura, or Hawke, the market will resolve to Yes once the outcome has been verified by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Stay in the loop with all the 2026 Oscars odds as the 98th Academy Awards are slated for March 15.

The 3 Main Contenders for Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet

Chalamet played the lead in Marty Supreme, based on a true story about an everyman table tennis player who wants to be a champion.

It has comedic undertones, which don’t always lend themselves to winning awards. However, the heartthrob Chalamet “nerded” himself up, largely concealing his pretty boy looks that set hearts aflutter. This often holds resonance with voters as they look at an actor who holds the perception of being where he is because of his looks and shunned that advantage for a role. It’s not on a level with Robert DeNiro gaining a vast amount of weight to play Jake LaMotta, but it is generally viewed as putting acting skill ahead of appearance.

Chalamet does not have the perception of a male model who decided to be an actor and wants credit for it, but his looks can be a detriment, just as they were for DiCaprio many years after Titanic, despite every big director in Hollywood lining up to work with him.

Still, despite him being nominated twice before, he’s only 30, and there could be a “let him wait” sentiment among Academy Awards voters.

Michael B. Jordan

This is Jordan’s first nomination, but he’s received critical acclaim for past roles in Fruitvale Station, the Creed films, and others. He’s 39, but he’s been around for a long time. His public stances on social activism, pursuing diversity in Hollywood, and Black Lives Matter have raised his profile beyond simply being an actor, producer, and director. His win at the Actor Awards for Sinners boosted his odds for the Oscar.

Sinners is a horror film with social commentary about racism, segregation, and cultural appropriation. Jordan plays a dual role as twin brothers.

The Academy tends to avoid horror films and the actors who perform in them, but that’s the residue of slasher films and plots that seem to offend the high art sensibilities Hollywood strives to portray. Now, these films are treated as making a statement rather than maximizing blood and gore for salaciousness and nothing else.

It’s important to note that Jordan also co-starred in Black Panther, which was a rare superhero film that was nominated for Best Picture.

Since Hollywood is deeply involved in the cultural zeitgeist, Jordan could win based on his performance and what he and the film represent.

Leonardo DiCaprio

DiCaprio has been nominated for Best Actor six times and won in 2015 for The Revenant.

While One Battle After Another is also a film steeped in social commentary, it’s unlikely that he will win in part because the Academy might say, “It’s someone else’s turn,” “He’s won one already,” “The movie isn’t worth another award at the expense of the others.”

The performance was not above and beyond the others, and DiCaprio is almost assuredly not going to win.