Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actress Are Moving Fast

• It’s awards season in Hollywood, and the Oscars are approaching fast, set to be held on March 15
• One of the most competitive categories is for Best Supporting Actress
• Prediction markets are speculating on the winner ahead of the 98th Academy Awards

The 98th Academy Awards are just days away, as the entertainment industry will soon hand out some of its most prestigious trophies. Although the Oscars for Best Supporting awards might be viewed as secondary to Best Actor and Best Actress, they are frequently viewed as steppingstones for rising performers, a comeback for those whose careers might be in a rut, an acknowledgment of acting chops for those who were not seen as “serious,” and a career achievement award.

Recent winners include Zoe Saldaña, who was best known for playing Gamora in the Marvel Universe, and won for Emilia Pérez.

Jamie Lee Curtis has an extensive list of credits, but she is still seen as a “scream queen” from her role as Laurie Strode in the Halloween franchise. She won Best Supporting Actress in 2022 for Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Other prominent names who have won include Laura Dern, Viola Davis, Anne Hathaway, and Penélope Cruz.

For the coming 98th Academy Awards, Amy Madigan has taken the lead in the prediction markets for Best Supporting Actress after her performance in Weapons. As recently as Feb. 22, however, Teyana Taylor from One Battle After Another was well ahead at around 70%. Madigan was at around 20%.

But Madigan won the SAG Actor Award for Best Supporting Actress. This has upended the odds since previous award wins are commonly seen as precursors to what the voters are thinking.

That, however, is not a sure-fire indicator. Last year, Demi Moore won several pre-Oscars Best Actress awards for her performance in The Substance, but ultimately lost at the 97th Academy Awards to Mikey Madison for Anora.

Latest Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actress

For those who want to take part in speculating on who will win, the Kalshi referral code gives new users a $10 Sign Up Bonus once $10 in trades are completed.

Trading volume for this market has surpassed $2 million and is rising, with viable arguments for Amy Madigan and Teyana Taylor, as well as growing interest in Wunmi Mosaku.

The obvious factors are coming to the forefront with the veteran Madigan getting accolades at age 75 after a long run as a working actress, but seen largely in the background. She was previously nominated for Best Supporting Actress in 1985 for Twice in a Lifetime. She lost to Anjelica Houston, who took the statue home for her role in Prizzi’s Honor.

Taylor, 35, is a hybrid performer who has made her mark as a singer, dancer, model, songwriter, and choreographer. For good measure, she’s also pursuing a culinary degree.

The 2026 Oscars odds have Madigan at around 40% to win. Taylor is approximately 10 points behind. Mosaku is in the low-20% range. Lilleaas is in the low single digits, and Fanning is not even registering.

If the selection wins Best Supporting Actress this year, the market will resolve to Yes. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will verify the result.

Top Contenders for Best Supporting Actress

Amy Madigan

In her mid-70s, Madigan should not be viewed as a “comeback” contender since she is constantly working as a character actress.

Her role in Weapons as Aunt Gladys was critical to the horror film’s effectiveness. She is the antagonist in the film about disappearing children. The children are taken so Aunt Gladys’ supernatural needs can be met. In the film, her horrifying makeup and gleeful behavior left a mark.

Still, does the recognition Madigan will receive for her long career supersede the younger Taylor, particularly as Hollywood is paying greater attention to diversity and recognizing Black actors and actresses for their work as a tipping point in close races for awards?

Teyana Taylor

The sheer nature of the narrative in One Battle After Another could draw attention, given the current state of affairs in the U.S. and around the world. Taylor and her partner, played by Leonardo DiCaprio, are revolutionaries breaking immigrants out of detention.

Sound familiar?

Their tactics are extreme, and Taylor’s intense, nuanced performance drew widespread acclaim.

While Taylor was seen as the clear frontrunner, the parallels to the state of politics and the world could lead to voters stepping back from the diversity and “making a statement” with their vote and go with Madigan to prevent drawing ire and criticism for what might be viewed as an award for reasons beyond the performance.

Wunmi Mosaku

Mosaku plays the wife of one of the twins in Sinners, played by Michael B. Jordan. She practices Hoodoo with rituals to protect her family. Her chances to win the award are complicated by Sinners being perceived as a horror film, and those who might want to lean toward diversity in their pick need to choose between Mosaku and Taylor, with the campaign for Taylor being more extensive throughout the industry. Maybe they cancel each other out in favor of Madigan.

Gauging the Candidates and What Voters Might Think

The voters are not monolithic in the SAG Awards, BAFTA, and the Oscars. With that, there will be different criteria used, so it is not guaranteed that the winners from the recent ceremonies will be the same for the Academy Awards. Since Sinners and Weapons are “horror” films and One Battle After Another is a political morality play, that could influence what the voters do.

Still, with Madigan riding a wave after her recent win, there could be great value in picking Taylor or Mosaku, particularly since their odds of winning have reduced so significantly in recent weeks.