Picks, Predictions & How to Watch Baylor vs Arizona State (Big 12 Tournament)
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Published:
- Arizona State and Baylor clash in a neutral-court Big 12 Tournament showdown with their postseason hopes squarely on the line
- Discover why sharp line movement has driven the point total down to 154.5 and how to exploit this expected half-court grind
- Find out why fading the overwhelming public consensus and backing Arizona State against the spread offers the strongest quantitative edge
The #12-seed Arizona State Sun Devils (16-15, 7-11 Big 12, 19-11-1 ATS) and #13-seed Baylor Bears (15-15, 6-12 Big 12, 14-16 ATS) are set to clash in the first round of the 2026 Big 12 Tournament on Tuesday afternoon, with their postseason lives hanging in the balance. Neither are projected to be among the 2026 NCAA Tournament teams if they don’t win the Big 12’s autobid – or at least make a deep run in the Big 12 tourney.
Jump to: PICKS || ODDS || BETTING SPLITS
How to Watch Arizona State vs Baylor
Tip-off for Arizona State/Baylor scheduled for 12:30 pm ET on Tuesday, March 10, at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO, with live coverage streaming on ESPN+.
The Bears won the only regular-season meeting between the teams in Waco, coming back from eight-point halftime deficit to take a 73-68 victory. Freshman Tounde Yessoufou’s had 16 points to lead Baylor while ASU’s Anthony Johnson dropped a game-high 20 points in the loss.
The Sun Devils are now navigating significant off-court distractions following widespread reports that the university plans to part ways with head coach Bobby Hurley. Below, I will dissect the the statistical mismatches and highlight my top quantitative bets for this Big 12 Tournament opener.
Arizona State vs Baylor Picks, Predictions & Best Bets
Both teams were good on neutral courts this season; ASU went 3-1 with wins over two top-40 KenPom teams – #33 Texas (87-86) and #37 Santa Clara (82-79) – while Baylor was 2-1, beating #74 Creighton (81-74) and #47 San Diego State (91-81), and losing to #21 St John’s (96-81).
ASU vs BAY Moneyline Pick: Arizona State (38¢ at Kalshi)
Despite the external noise surrounding Hurley’s job security, the on-court data suggests Arizona State holds the structural advantage and can dictate pace against middle-tier competition. Baylor has failed to execute against the nation’s elite, posting a 0-9 straight-up record against AP Top 25 opponents, indicating a definitive ceiling on their offensive efficiency.
ASU had no trouble trading blows with the Bears in the hostile environment of Foster Pavillion just three weeks ago. Baylor was 11-6 at home this season and just 5-9 everywhere else.
There is minimal difference between these squads; KenPom and BartTorvik both project a two-point Baylor win (81-79). Arizona State to win is trading at just 38¢ at Kalshi, which is equal to a +163 moneyline in traditional sports-betting terms. The Sun Devils’ real win probability is much closer to 50% and I love the value on the ASU moneyline at that price.
ASU vs Baylor H2H Team Stats
ASU also sits 30 spots higher in the RPI, played a tougher SOS, has more top-25 wins, and a better record against lower-tier competition. The latter doesn’t exactly describe Baylor, but the Bears are far from elite this season.
Game-Total Pick: Under 155.5 (55¢ at Kalshi)
Turning to the total, Caesars originally opened the Over/Under at a lofty 158 points before professional money immediately attacked that number, driving the line down 3.5 points to 154.5 at most sportsbooks. You can still get it a full point higher with not-unreasonable juice at Kalshi.
Defensive intensity naturally ramps up in elimination games, and the first meeting between the teams didn’t come close to this number (finishing with just 141 total points).
Baylor vs Arizona State Odds
If you don’t have access to Kalshi, the graphic above lists the best-available moneyline, spread, and total at online sportsbooks. Baylor is a market-best -176 at FanDuel, while Arizona State is +158 at Caesars.
The spread ranges from Baylor -3.5 to -4.0, with DraftKings offering the best ATS price on the Bears and bet365 on the Sun Devils.
The game total is now as low as 153.5 at FanDuel. Most sites, including bet365, have the O/U at 154.5 with -110 odds both ways.
Odds and commentary as of 9:30 am ET, March 10. See the full list of Texas sports betting apps.
Baylor vs ASU Public-Betting Trends & Splits
When analyzing the college basketball public betting data, evaluating the divergence between ticket percentages (public sentiment) and stake percentages (actual financial liability) is essential to finding an edge.
Spread-Betting Splits
Retail bettors are currently leaning toward the underdog. Looking at the spread splits, 57.34% of the betting tickets are on Baylor. More importantly, 68.37% of the total handle is backing the underdog to keep the game within a single possession. Because the money percentage carries more weight, it is clear that larger wagers are siding with Baylor. By contrast, only 42.66% of the tickets and 31.63% of the money are laying the points with Arizona State.
Moneyline-Betting Splits
The outright winner market shows an even stronger preference for the upset. A significant 79.30% of the betting tickets and 78.25% of the overall stake are backing Baylor on the moneyline. There is no notable sharp versus public discrepancy in this market, as both the volume of tickets and the financial backing are heavily aligned on the underdog advancing.
Total-Betting Splits
The most heavily skewed market on the board is the total. A staggering 84.38% of the tickets are banking on the Over, supported by 72.07% of the stake. Conversely, the Under has attracted only 15.62% of the tickets and 27.93% of the money. Despite massive public and financial backing for a shootout, the actual betting line has dropped 3.5 points since the opener. By taking the Under, I am aligning with the sharp, early-week line movement rather than the lopsided, late public volume.
Sign Up for SBD’s Newsletter Now
Did you want the latest sports betting news, analysis, picks, betting trends, and relevant data straight to your inbox? If so, you’ll want to subscribe to SBD’s newsletter now!
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
