Siena vs Merrimack – Best Bet for MAAC Championship (March 10)

Published: March 10, 2026 at 6:00 pm EDT

Merrimack tries to beat Siena for the third time tonight. — Nov 21, 2025; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Merrimack Warriors guard Tye Dorset (4) shoots over Florida Gators guard Urban Klavzar (7) during the first half at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Why backing Siena +3.5 offers premium betting value against top-seeded Merrimack
How both defenses make Under 124.5 an analytical lock
Our A.I. tools break down Siena vs. Merrimack and offer the best bets for MAAC championship

Top-seeded Merrimack takes on No. 3 seed Siena in a winner-take-all Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament final tonight. Tip-off is set for 9 pm, ET (ESPN2).

Neither team has a strong enough RPI to seriously qualify for an at-large bid, which means the only guaranteed way to reach the NCAA Tournament is to win tonight’s championship game.

Merrimack (23-10) beat Siena twice during the regular season, but both games were tight and one went into overtime. That partially explains why Merrimack is just a 3.5-point favorite.

Highlighted by a clash between MAAC Player of the Year Kevair Kennedy and unanimous First-Team All-MAAC guard Gavin Doty, the backcourt battle will dictate the pace. Read on as we dive into the most valuable picks, game props, and betting predictions to help you successfully handicap tonight’s MAAC finale.

Merrimack vs Siena Picks & Best Bets

Pick 1: Siena +3.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

When evaluating the betting value in this championship clash, turning to the regular-season head-to-head results paints the clearest picture. While Merrimack swept the two-game regular-season series, Siena proved it can match up against the top-seeded Warriors. In their first meeting on Jan. 9, Merrimack barely escaped Siena with a 63-59 road victory. Their second encounter on Feb. 20 was even tighter, requiring overtime before Merrimack secured a 79-72 home win. These incredibly close margins demonstrate why taking the underdog with the points offers massive value.

A critical situational trend supports the betting favorite’s outright success but highlights the underdog’s value against the spread. Merrimack boasts a dominant 77.7% win rate (21-6) against teams ranked 151 or lower in the RPI this season, confidently backing their status as moneyline favorites against a Siena squad sitting at 158th. Furthermore, Siena has struggled to close out elite competition, posting an 0-4 record (0% win rate) straight up against opponents inside the top 150 of the RPI. However, covering a 3.5-point spread against a defensive-minded opponent requires familiarity, and Siena’s ability to push the Warriors to the brink twice this season proves they can handle Merrimack’s zone defense.

Instead of relying on short-term tournament flashes, we can trust the regular-season body of work from Siena’s backcourt duo of Gavin Doty and Justice Shoats. Their consistent scoring ability will be critical in a matchup that has historically played out within a single possession. With two regular-season battles decided by just four points in regulation, laying 3.5 points with Merrimack is simply too steep of a price. Siena possesses the offensive firepower and firsthand experience to keep this within the number.

Pick 2: Under 125.5 Points ($0.49 per contract at Kalshi)

At prediction site Kalshi, Under 125.5 points is trading at 49¢ (equivalent to a +104 moneyline). If you don’t already have an account at Kalshi, click “PREDICT” in the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code. (If you already use Kalshi, try out SBD’s Novig promo code or check out our full list of prediction markets.)

The justification for this Under lies in the extreme workload both coaching staffs have placed on their starting units throughout the year. A glaring regular-season trend for both squads is the staggering minutes their core players log, combined with the slow pace seen in their prior head-to-head matchups. Their first game finished with just 122 combined points, cashing the Under. With key starters playing massive minutes all season long, heavy legs will inevitably dictate a slower, grind-it-out pace in the half-court. Combined with Merrimack’s elite scoring defense, the Under 125.5 at Kalshi is highly appealing.

Prediction Markets

Merrimack vs Siena MAAC Final

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Merrimack

61%

Siena

40%

Predict

Public Betting Trends and Splits

A look at the college basketball public betting splits reveals exactly how the public is attacking the board. When analyzing market movement, leaning on the stake percentage (the actual money wagered) offers a more valuable gauge of respected action than the sheer volume of betting tickets.

The Total (Over/Under): The public is overwhelmingly anticipating a shootout in Atlantic City. A massive 84.38% of the betting tickets and an even larger 86.5% of the total stake are backing the Over. This reveals a stark contrast to our official prediction. While the masses are heavily invested in an offensive showcase, fading the public and sticking with our Under recommendation provides strong contrarian value, especially given the grueling minutes these starters have logged.

The Spread: The point spread paints a much more divided picture. Merrimack commands a slim majority of the popularity, taking in 54.17% of the spread tickets. However, when looking at the more valuable metric—the money—the script flips. Siena has drawn the slight majority of the capital, accounting for 50.39% of the total spread stake. While this doesn’t meet the strict 60% inverse threshold required on both sides to signal a definitive sharp versus public trap, it is highly encouraging to see the money leaning toward the underdog despite the public ticket count favoring the favorite. This perfectly aligns with our selection of Siena to cover the points.

The Moneyline: For bettors looking strictly at outright winners, confidence sits squarely with the betting favorites. Merrimack has accumulated a lopsided 83.27% of the moneyline bets. The stake percentage remains firmly in their corner as well, drawing 64.84% of the money wagered.

Merrimack vs Siena Statistical Breakdown

Statistical Metric	Merrimack	Siena
PPG	64.0	69.5
PPG Allowed	52.5	59.5
RPI	66	131
Strength of Schedule (SOS)	0.4771	0.4484
Adjusted Winning % (AWP)	0.7655	0.6918
Opponents’ Winning % (OWP)	0.4729	0.4365
Opponents’ Opponents’ Win % (OOWP)	0.4854	0.4722
Record vs. Top 100 RPI Opponents	0-4	0-3
Record vs. 101-150 RPI Opponents	2-0	0-1
Record vs. 151+ RPI Opponents	21-6	22-7

Siena vs Merrimack Odds

Moneyline: Merrimack -168 | Siena +140
Point Spread: Merrimack -3.5 (-111) | Siena +3.5 (-109)
Total (Over/Under): 124.5 (Over -110 | Under -110)

Odds as of March 10, 2026, at 3:52 PM UTC from consensus odds available at sportsbooks like ESPN Bet.

The betting market has experienced significant movement since these numbers first hit the board. Most notably, the game total plummeted a massive six points, dropping from an opening line of 130.5 down to 124.5 as respected money heavily backed a slower, defensive battle. On the side, Merrimack saw their moneyline price shorten from an opening -155 to -168, pushing their point spread through the key number of 3, moving from an opening -2.5 to the current -3.5.

When stripping away the bookmaker’s juice (the “vig”) to find the true implied probability of this matchup, the math points to a highly competitive contest. The vig-free normalized probabilities give Merrimack a 60.07% chance of securing the outright victory, while Siena holds a 39.93% chance of pulling off the neutral-court upset.

For bettors looking to get involved on the moneyline, the potential returns vary significantly. If you were to place a $20 wager on Merrimack at -168, a victory would yield a total payout of $31.90 (an $11.90 profit). Conversely, placing that same $20 bet on the underdog Siena at +140 would return a total payout of $48.00 (a $28.00 profit) if they can successfully cut down the nets.

Kalshi also has ML markets. A Merrimack to win contract is trading for $0.61, which equates to -164 odds, which is a slightly better value than consensus books. A Siena to win contract is $0.40 per, which equates to +150 odds, also a slightly better value.