See All the March Madness Odds Already Posted at Prediction Markets – Will a #16 Beat a #1?
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Published:
- A litany of March Madness props have been posted at prediction site Kalshi
- Trade on a #16 seed beating a #1 seed, and total number of first-round upsets
- See all the 2026 March Madness odds available at predictions markets
Selection Sunday is just days away and prediction site Kalshi has posted a bundle of March Madness markets. Below, I have set out all of the prediction markets currently on offer, along with the current prices/percentages. (If you’re new to Prediction Markets, read SBD’s guide.)
If you see a market that you want to put money one, click “PREDICT” in one of the graphics below to automatically claim SBD’s Kalshi referral code.
Will a #16 Seed Beat a #1 Seed?
The “Yes” on a #16 beating a #1 is trading at just 5¢, equal to +1900 odds in traditional sports-betting terms, with the “No” at 97¢ (-3233 odds). This has only happened twice in history: UMBC over Virginia in 2018 and Fairleigh Dickinson over Purdue in 2023, good for a 1.25% win rate in 160 chances.
This year’s #1 seeds are going to be beasts: Duke, Michigan, and Arizona have all but locked up the first three. The reigning national champs from Florida have the inside track on the fourth.
Will a #15 or #16 Seed in in Round of 64?
Adding the #15 seeds to the mix, the “Yes” price becomes a steeper 22¢ (equal to +355 odds, with the “no at “No” at 80¢ (-400 odds). Eleven #15 seeds have beaten #2 seeds in the 40-year history of the 64-team NCAA Tournament. It happened three straight years from 2021 to 2023 (Oral Roberts over Ohio State in 2021, Saint Peter’s over Kentucky in 2022, and Princeton over Arizona in 2023) but hasn’t happened either of the last two season.
Two-seeds have a 6.88 win percentage, all-time.
Will a #14 or Worse Seed Win in Round of 64?
Grouping the #14, 15 and 16 seeds together generates nearly 50/50 prices. The “Yes” on a 14-or-worse seed winning in the Round of 64 is 48¢ (equal to +108 odds) while the “No” is 56¢ (equal to -127 odds).
When Oakland beat Kentucky in 2024, the Golden Grizzlies became the 23rd #14 seed to beat a #3 seed (23-137 all-time record, 14.4% win rate).
Will a #13 Seed Win in Round of 64?
Kalshi has a standalone market on whether a #13 seed will beat a #4 seed, and the odds are surprisingly even, with the “Yes” trading at 50¢. This didn’t happen last season or in 2022, but it did happen in 2024, 2023, 2021 (twice), 2019, and 2018 (twice). Based on recent history, the “Yes” is much better value here.
How Many #12 Seeds Win in Round of 64?
Once we get to the #12 seeds, the question becomes, not if, but how many. The “Yes” on at least one win is trading at 76¢ (-317 odds)with the no at 33¢ (+203 odds). The “Yes” on two or more is trading at 35¢ (+186 odds) with the “No” at 69¢ (-223 odds). Three is a true longshot at 9¢ (+1011 odds) and four is trading at just 2¢ (+4900 odds).
Overall, #12s have a 35.63% win rate. Exactly two #12s have won in three of the last four tournaments. They were shutout in 2023, the only time in the last six editions no #12 seeds moved onto the round of 32.
How Many Upsets in Round of 64?
This prop is based on seeds not betting odds. So even if a favored 9-seed beats an 8-seed, that counts as an upset for the purposes of this market.
The baseline for this prop, at least according to the Kalshi prices, is 8.5. The “Yes” on nine or more is trading at 45¢ (+122 odds) with the “No” at 58¢ (-138 odds).
Which Seed # Will Win NCAA Tournament?
The “Yes” on a #1 seed winning the tournament is trading at 74¢. On an average year, I would say that’s way too high. A top-seed has only won ___ of 40 tournaments since expansion in 1985. But as mentioned above, the top four teams in the country are a cut above this season.
Duke, Michigan, and Arizona all have KenPom ratings over +37.00. Florida is next at +35.34. Then there’s a fairly precipitous drop to #5 Illinois (+32.73) and #6 Houston (+32.44) before another cliff to #7 Iowa State (+29.93). Last year, only one team was over +37.00. Prior to 2025, there hadn’t been a single team over +37.00 at the end of the season since Duke in 2001.
How Many #1 Seeds in Final Four?
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
