Expert Picks, Predictions & How to Watch Saint Joseph’s vs New Mexico

• New Mexico looks to exploit its massive home-court advantage as heavy -10.5 favorites in this NIT quarterfinal clash against Saint Joseph’s
• Bettors are pounding the Over 154.5, anticipating a high-flying, transition-heavy affair at elevation
• Discover why I am laying the lumber with the home squad in Albuquerque

How to Watch Saint Joseph’s vs New Mexico

The postseason stage is set for a thrilling NIT quarterfinal skirmish as the Saint Joseph’s Hawks (24-11, 13-5 A-10) travel to Albuquerque to take on the New Mexico Lobos (25-10, 14-8 MWC). Tip-off is slated for 9:00 PM ET on March 24, broadcasting live on ESPN2 from the iconic floor at The Pit.

Saint Joseph’s is riding the high of an epic 19-point second-half comeback over California, capped by a brilliant game-winning bucket from Derek Simpson. However, this marks their third consecutive road game, and the altitude at The Pit is a diabolical track for weary legs on a quick turnaround.

Meanwhile, New Mexico has been an absolute buzzsaw on its home floor. Coming off a 25-point demolition of George Washington where Uriah Tenette dictated the pace from the opening tip, the home squad enters with huge momentum. Both unranked programs secured third-place finishes in their respective conferences, but the environmental factors in this one create a distinct advantage.

Saint Joseph’s vs New Mexico Picks, Predictions, and Stats Breakdown

Before I lay out my official picks, I need to look under the hood at how these two programs stack up statistically. For March Madness championship odds for the main men’s tournament, we’ve got you covered.

The most glaring mismatch is the offensive firepower the Lobos bring to the hardwood, ranking 24th nationally in points per game (81.5). Pair that explosive scoring with an elite assist-to-turnover ratio (1.45), and you have a unit that rarely beats itself in transition.

On the other side, the Hawks have been resilient—boasting a flawless 6-0 record in games decided by three points or fewer this season—but their season-long point differential of +3.4 pales in comparison to the dominating +10.6 margin posted by the home side.

Given the brutal travel schedule and the quick turnaround to play at elevation, I fully expect the visitors to run out of gas. The Lobos relentless pace (73.2 possessions per game) will eventually overwhelm a weary defense. I am comfortably laying the points here. With the home team running the floor and filling it up, I am backing the Over.

The Pick: New Mexico -10.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

The Pick: Over 154.5 Total Points (-112 at DraftKings)

SGP Angle: New Mexico 1st Half -6.5 & Full Game Over 154.5 (+260 at Caesars). I expect the home crowd to propel an early double-digit lead, setting a blistering pace right out of the gate.

Saint Joseph’s vs New Mexico Betting Splits

Moneyline: The market is completely one-sided, with 97.31% of the tickets and 90.08% of the handle backing New Mexico to win outright. Bettors are showing zero appetite for a road upset in this spot.

Spread: The ticket count slightly favors Saint Joseph’s at 51.69%, but a hefty 66.42% of the actual handle is backing New Mexico.

Total: The market is completely united on the total. A massive 94.89% of the tickets and 95.15% of the money are pounding the Over 154.5. Everyone from the casual bettor to the sharp syndicates expects to see the scoreboard light up in Albuquerque.

Saint Joseph’s vs New Mexico Odds

Odds as of March 24, 2026, at 2:15 PM ET from DraftKings

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When I strip out the sportsbook’s built-in vig to calculate the true mathematical probabilities, the reality of this mismatch becomes crystal clear. The normalized, vig-free probabilities give New Mexico an 85.3% chance of securing the outright victory, leaving Saint Joseph’s with just a 14.7% probability of surviving this road test.

To put the pricing into perspective, a $10 wager on the heavily favored home side at -600 would yield a marginal profit of just $1.70 (for an $11.70 total payout). Conversely, throwing that same $10 money on the underdog at +440 presents a $44.00 profit for a total payout of $54.00. While the payout is tempting, the numbers simply do not support the upset.

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