Man City vs Arsenal Picks, Predictions, Odds & Injury News (April 19)

• Second-placed Manchester City hosts Arsenal, who leads the Premier League by six points.
• Manchester City has a chance to cut the gap to Arsenal to three points, and it still has a game in hand against Crystal Palace.
• See our Premier League picks for this weekend’s Manchester City vs Arsenal.

There is no such thing as a Premier League final like we have in the FA Cup or the Champions League. But this is as close as it gets to a final. Arsenal leads the Premier League with 70 points after 32 rounds, while Manchester City has 64 points in 31 matches.

Despite leading the Premier League table and having qualified for the Champions League’s semifinals, Arsenal hasn’t been successful against Manchester City this season. On September 21, they drew 1–1 at the Emirates Stadium. On March 22, the Citizens won the League Cup final by 2–0.

If the Gunners win away in Manchester, they will most likely confirm their Premier League title in the coming weeks, which would be their first since the 2003/04 season. Any other result will leave the race open, but a draw would leave Arsenal with a comfortable three-point lead, even if City wins their postponed match against Crystal Palace.

Prior to the match, Arsenal is the favorite to win the 2025/26 Premier League title. The latest EPL title odds list Arsenal at -160, ahead of Manchester City at +125. Manchester United and Aston Villa remain long shots with only mathematically slim chances of winning the title.

Man City vs Arsenal Odds

Prediction Markets

3-Way ML

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Manchester City

54%

Tie

25%

Arsenal

23%

Predict

At the prediction site Kalshi, Manchester City is trading at 55¢ to win (equal to -122 odds) with Arsenal at just 22¢ (+355) and a draw at 25¢ (+300). The total-goals market projects a lower-scoring game. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 49¢ (+104) with under 2.5 goals at 52¢ (-109).

Click “Predict” above to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code.

Man City vs Arsenal Picks & Best Bets Today

Manchester City is slightly favored to win the match, with odds at -122. Bettors should expect a low-scoring game, with under 2.5 goals priced at -109.

Given the expectation of a tight match, City’s handicap line is set at no more than 1 goal, at -245. A draw at half-time is also priced as semi-likely, at +144.

Man City vs Arsenal Picks & Predictions

• Manchester City (-122)

There are four main reasons to back Manchester City in this game. The first one is the home advantage the Citizens enjoy. Arsenal haven’t beaten the Citizens on the road since 2015. Then, if we consider head-to-head clashes, the Gunners haven’t beaten them since 2023. This includes the two matches they played this season.

Another important point to take into consideration is the motivation. This is a crucial fixture for Manchester City. Any other result will feel like Arsenal has accomplished their mission in this game, and it would come extremely close to clinching the title.

Manchester City had a quiet week of training sessions, rest, and recovery for their injured players. On the other hand, Arsenal played an intense match against Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League. Although the Gunners didn’t play very well, it was enough for them to earn a place in the semifinals. It is normal for the players to feel tired, and they have only a few days to recover.

A fourth reason to consider is the City’s pursuit of a domestic treble. Manchester City has won the League Cup, is battling Arsenal for first place in the Premier League, and has qualified to face Southampton in the FA Cup semifinal.

• Under 2.5 goals (-109)
• Spread under 1.5 goals (-245)

Despite both Manchester City (63) and Arsenal (62) having the most powerful attacks in the Premier League, they also boast very solid defenses, with Arsenal conceding just 24 goals and City 28. They are the only teams allowing fewer than one goal per game. Sunderland ranks third with 36 goals conceded in 32 matches, a significant gap. The difficulty of breaking down City’s and Arsenal’s defenses makes an under 2.5 total goals bet very likely, with City unlikely to cover a spread larger than 1.5 goals.

• First Half draw (+144)

I have already gone through the reasons why I think Manchester City will win this game, and I expect the winning margin to be minimal. The question is: when will the team score? This is a tough question to answer. I believe Arsenal will play defensively without taking many risks, while Manchester City will keep pushing forward in search of a goal. Given Arsenal’s strong defense, I expect City to take time to find an opening and score the winning goal.

Man City vs Arsenal Injury Report

The home team has Josko Gvardiol and Ruben Dias being treated for injuries. They will probably be fully recovered in May, but won’t play on Sunday.

Nico O’Reilly left the pitch against Chelsea last weekend with a hamstring injury. He was replaced in the 64th minute by Rayan Aït-Nouri, who should start the game against Arsenal if O’Reilly is not fit. John Stones could also be available for the Arsenal game.

Arsenal cannot count on Mikel Merino or Martin Odegaard next Sunday. The good news is that Bukayo Saka, Riccardo Calafiori, and Jurrien Timber should be available for Mikel Arteta. Noni Madueke is still being assessed. If he is not fit to play, Arteta has several options for the starting XI. Gabriel Jesus, a former City striker, is most likely to start the game.

Despite the injury reports, Manchester City is still the favorite to win the match, with odds at -122.