AGA Bullish on Sports Betting, iGaming Industry Despite Prediction Market Threat

• The American Gaming Association is reporting a positive outlook on future gaming industry conditions
• The association today released its Gaming Industry Outlook, reporting positivity for the industry among AGA member executives
• However, nearly 81% of executives view prediction markets as a “very significant threat” to the regulated gaming industry

The American Gaming Association is predicting a strong 2026 for the sports betting and iGaming industry, despite the threat of prediction markets.

The American Gaming Association today released its Gaming Industry Outlook. In the report, the AGA noted that more than 60% of its member executives expected increased capital investment, boosted revenues, and improved balance sheet health for the sports betting and iGaming markets over the next six to 12 months.

“The legal state- and tribal-regulated gaming industry continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability in a dynamic economic environment,” AGA President Bill Miller said. “Operators are focusing on investing in innovation and delivering world-class entertainment, while also navigating an evolving competitive and regulatory landscape.”

Executive Positivity Highest Since Q3 2022

According to the AGA, gaming executive sentiment is largely positive, recording the highest positive response rate since Q3 2022. More respondents gave positive responses, such as “expecting increases” in positive market trends, compared with negative responses.

Gaming executive sentiment grew to 21.4% net positive this year.

The positive outlook is due in part, the AGA report states, to expectations that the U.S. economy is expected to remain resilient, benefiting from investment in AI and other industries.

Gaming Conditions Index Increases

The AGA reported that its Gaming Conditions Index (GCI) has shown growth of economic activity in the industry in Q1 2026 compared with the prior year. The AGA’s GCI tracks real economic activity in the gaming markets, measured by gaming revenue, employment, employee wager and salaries, gaming executive sentiment, and future event activity at casino hotels.

The GCI increased 1.5% in Q1 2026 compared with the prior year, the AGA noted. It continues the expansion seen in the previous two quarters.

Prediction Market Worries

Despite the positivity in the outlook, AGA member executive did report concerns over the growing popularity of prediction markets. The report notes 81% of executives identified them as a “very significant” risk to the regulated gaming industry.

Additionally, 46% of executives indicated that federal regulatory concerns are limiting operations, up from 29% in Q3 2025.

Finally, 42% of executives cite competition from new forms of gaming as a major factor limiting operations, up from 25% in the fall.

“Illegal sports betting through sports event contracts is increasingly encroaching on legal, state-and-tribal regulated operators,” Miller said. “It’s clear the legal, regulated industry views this as a threat, and will continue to fight back and protect the integrity of our industry.”