Expert Picks & How to Watch Rays vs Red Sox (May 7)

• It’s an American League East matchup as the Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Devil Rays
• Are you betting on the Rays to get a victory as a road underdog?
• Keep scrolling to make sure you’re up to date on the latest injuries, odds, and best bets for this game

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The Tampa Bay Rays (24-12) travel to Fenway Park to open a series against the Boston Red Sox (15-21) on May 7, 2026, at 7:10 PM ET. Both teams are looking to bounce back from recent divisional defeats. The Rays dropped their previous game 3-1 to the Cleveland Guardians, despite a solid outing from starter Drew Rasmussen. Meanwhile, the Red Sox enter this series opener following a 3-1 loss to the Houston Astros, a game where Jarren Duran accounted for the only offense with a solo home run. With established stars like Trevor Story trying to stabilize the home lineup, I am closely examining the underlying metrics to identify the most valuable betting angles for this American League matchup.

Rays vs Red Sox Picks & Predictions

When evaluating the statistical profiles and run-prevention metrics for both clubs, a clear advantage emerges for the road underdog. You’ll have to see the latest stats on MLB batters vs pitchers before you build your parlays.

Moneyline Pick: Rays (-105 at BetMGM)
I am backing the Rays on the moneyline in this series opener. Their success is built on a superior pitching staff that holds a collective 3.55 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, holding opposing batters to a .221 average. The Red Sox pitching staff carries a 3.99 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent average of .244. At the plate, the Rays are hitting .254 as a team with a .702 OPS, while the Red Sox are batting just .237 with a .673 OPS. The statistical edge across both hitting and run prevention provides plenty of value on the road underdog.

Over/Under Pick: Under 8.5 (+100 at Caesars Sportbook)
My recommendation is to play the Under. The Rays excel at limiting opponent production, while the Red Sox lineup has struggled to sequence hits, generating just 142 RBIs compared to 149 for the Rays. I anticipate a tightly contested game that stays below the total.

Best Player Prop: Willson Contreras Over 1.5 Total Bases (+129 at DraftKings)
Catcher Willson Contreras is currently the most reliable bat in the Red Sox lineup. He paces the team’s everyday players with eight home runs, 19 runs scored, and a .481 slugging percentage. Hitting .264 overall with an .856 OPS, Contreras is consistently making hard contact with a 91.6 mph average exit velocity. Taking the Over on his total bases provides excellent value based on his current form.

Odds as of May 7, 2026, at 4:01 PM ET from BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings

Griffin Jax vs Jake Bennett

The Rays hand the ball to Griffin Jax, who operates primarily in short stints, averaging 2.50 innings over his last 10 appearances. Jax struggles with control, evidenced by a 6.00 BB/9 rate and a 4.50 ERA over that span. However, he offers significant swing-and-miss ability with 9.75 K/9 and a .227 opponent batting average.

Jake Bennett counters for the Red Sox. Bennett holds a 1.80 ERA over his last 10 games, averaging 5.00 innings per start. Despite the low ERA, his 1.40 WHIP, .278 opponent batting average, and 5.74 season FIP suggest regression is likely. Bennett relies on pitching to contact (5.40 K/9) and will need to execute precisely against a lineup adept at manufacturing runs.

Team Stats Comparison

Comparing situational splits highlights a significant offensive disparity between these two rosters.

The Rays average 4.61 runs per game on the road, driven by a .249 batting average and a .692 OPS. The Red Sox struggle at Fenway Park, scoring only 3.06 runs per game with a .223 batting average and a .630 OPS. This 1.55-run differential per game supports my moneyline position on the road team.

Base running creates another mismatch. The Rays steal 1.11 bases per game on the road, while the Red Sox steal just 0.62 at home. Players like Yandy Díaz set the table for the Rays, allowing them to dictate the pace and apply pressure on opposing catchers. Although the Red Sox generate a slightly higher average exit velocity at home (87.3 mph vs 86.1 mph), their inability to sequence hits with runners in scoring position limits their run production. It’s smart to stay up to date on the latest news about MLB starting pitchers and lineups.

Rays vs Red Sox Odds and Betting Splits

Odds as of May 7, 2026, at 4:01 PM ET from BetMGM, bet365, and DraftKings

The Red Sox opened as -120 moneyline favorites before moving to -115, while the Rays shifted from +100 to -105 according to MLB odds. A clear, sharp vs public divide exists in the moneyline market. The MLB public betting percentages show the Red Sox with 53% of the tickets, but 57% of the total handle is on the Rays. There’s a significant percentage of money on the road, and Underdog aligns directly with my prediction.

The runline experienced a complete flip overnight. The Rays opened as 1.5-run favorites (+153), but the line adjusted to make them 1.5-run underdogs (-187) due to the heavy volume of individual tickets on the home side. The total has remained at 8.5 runs. Bettors are heavily attacking the Over, accounting for 69% of the tickets and67% of the money, yet the slight juice on the Under (+100) indicates bookmakers are holding firm on their initial projections.

Relevant Betting Trends:
* The Rays have won 90.0% of their last 10 games overall (9-1).
* The Rays have won 75.0% of their games as an underdog over their last 10 matchups (3-1).
* The Under has cashed in 90.0% of the Rays’ last 10 games.
* The Red Sox have won just 33.3% of their games when listed as an underdog this season (4-8), though they enter this contest as the favorite.

Injury Report

Injuries to key pitchers and positional players heavily influence this matchup.

The Red Sox rotation is missing multiple arms, including Tanner Houck, Garrett Crochet, and Kutter Crawford, which puts immediate pressure on Jake Bennett to eat innings. The absence of Triston Casas further limits their slugging potential. The Rays are also missing key rotation pieces like Ryan Pepiot and Steven Matz, which forces them to rely on short starts from pitchers like Griffin Jax. However, their lineup remains mostly intact, giving them a distinct situational advantage.