USA vs Belgium Odds for Round of 16 – Who’s Favored in Seattle?

The host United States booked their ticket to the round of 16 on Wednesday night with a gritty 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina, surviving the last 25-plus minutes a man down – and even extending the lead.

The win set up a round of 16 clash with Belgium, a team that has to feel like it’s playing with house money after coming back from a 2-0 deficit in the final 10 minutes against Senegal earlier in the day.

USA vs Belgium will take place on Monday, July 6, in Seattle. The opening odds favor the hosts, but the margins are razor-thin.

USA vs Belgium Odds

At prediction site Kalshi, the market on quarterfinal qualification currently has the USA trading at 54¢ (equal to -118 odds) and Belgium at 49¢ (equal to +104 odds).

Editor’s note: Kalshi traders can buy the “No” on Belgium to reach the quarterfinals at 52¢ (equal to -108 odds), which is de facto the same as buying the USA to advance. Kalshi traders can also buy “No” on USA to advance at 46¢ (equal to +118 odds), which is the same as buying Belgium to advance. Both of those options currently offer a better payout than the “Yes” options for either team.

FanDuel was first to open the three-way moneyline and goal total. Team USA is priced at +155 to win in 90 minutes with Belgium at +165 and a full-time draw at +250. The total has opened at 2.5 goals with over favored at -132 and the under in plus-money at +108.

USMNT Handles Business in Round of 32

Team USA was a heavy favorite to advance past Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday night and, though it took a minute for the goal to come, the Americans were decisively the better side throughout.

Folarin Balogun gave the US a 1-0 in the first minute of first-half stoppage time. The US dominated possession in the first 45 minutes (62% to 38%) and deserved the lead at the break, generating 0.73 xGF to just 0.04 for the Bosnians.

The second half got dicier when Balogun was sent off for a serious foul in the 64th minute, but the American defense held firm and Malik Tillman even managed to extend the lead in the 82nd minute while a man down.

Team USA allowed just three shots on target and 0.21 xGF over the full 90 minutes in one of their best defensive performances in recent memory.

The win on Wednesday improved Team USA’s odds to win the World Cup to 4.6¢ at Kalshi (+2074). Only seven teams have shorter odds: France, Argentina, Spain, England, Brazil, Portugal, and Mexico.

Prediction Markets

Updated Odds to Win World Cup

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Kalshi

France

35%

Argentina

18%

Spain

9%

England

7%

Brazil

7%

Portugal

7%

Mexico

6%

USA

5%

Colombia

3%

Morocco

3%

Predict

Belgium Survives Massive Scare

The Belgians were modest favorites to advance past Senegal earlier in the day on Wednesday, but they were decidedly second-best for the first 80 minutes, falling behind 1-0 by halftime and conceding a second just five minutes after the break.

But a Romelu Lukaku goal in the 86th minute breathed life into their survival chances. Youri Tielemans would knot the game at 2-2 just three minutes later before eventually winning the game in extra time on a late penalty.

Statistically, Belgium was extremely lucky to advance. Senegal generated 3.58 xGF compared to just 1.75 for Belgium, which includes the extra-time penalty.

Belgium is trading at just 1.3¢ in the World Cup outrights, which makes it somewhat surprising that their odds to reach the quarterfinals are so similar to the USA’s.