France vs Paraguay Goalscorer Picks & Props to Bet

• France’s ruthless attack should overwhelm a deep-sitting Paraguay block
• Paraguay lean on Julio Enciso to punish France on the counter
• See my three France vs Paraguay goalscorer picks for Saturday, July 4

France and Paraguay meet in the Round of 16 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia at 5:00 pm ET on Saturday, July 4. Les Bleus arrive as heavy favorites, riding a 13-goal run through four World Cup games and a 3-0 win over Sweden. Kylian Mbappe leads the tournament scoring race with six goals.

Paraguay reached this stage the hard way, upsetting Germany on penalties after Julio Enciso’s header forced the shootout. They will sit deep, protect keeper Orlando Gill, and try to spring a counter. That contrast makes the goalscorer market fun to shop.

Below are my two France picks and one Paraguay longshot, with the rationale and best prices for each.

France vs Paraguay Anytime Goalscorer Picks & Props to Bet

Two of my three picks sit in plus-money, and even Mbappe at 69¢ is close to a coin flip given how France have scored. The three-way moneyline lists France as a massive favorite, and Kalshi has the total leaning over 2.5 goals, so the whole board points toward the French attack getting on the sheet.

Kylian Mbappe Anytime Goalscorer (69¢ / -223 at Kalshi)

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FRA vs PAR Goal Pick #1

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Kylian Mbappe: 1+

69%

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You pay a premium at 69¢, but Mbappe is the anchor of this card for a reason. He already has six goals at this World Cup, level at the top of the tournament scoring race, and France have piled up 13 goals in four matches.

Paraguay will pack the box and lean on Gill, which is exactly the kind of low block Mbappe has torn through all tournament. His movement should stretch the Paraguay back line, and if France earn a penalty or a rebound, he is first in line to finish it.

The 69-cent price implies roughly -223, the shortest number on the card but a fair ask for the safest scorer in the matchup.

Ousmane Dembele Anytime Goalscorer (42¢ / +138 at Kalshi)

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FRA vs PAR Goal Pick #2

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Ousmane Dembele: 1+

42%

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Dembele is my favorite value on the card at 42 cents. He gives France a direct threat from wide, and his pace is a problem for any defense forced to defend deep for long stretches.

Paraguay held firm against Germany, but they did it by absorbing wave after wave of pressure and riding their luck. France finish the chances Germany squandered, and Dembele is one of the players Deschamps trusts to unlock a compact block alongside Mbappe and Michael Olise.

That +138 tag is plus-money on a starter in the tournament’s most productive attack, and I will take it every time.

Julio Enciso Anytime Goalscorer (9¢ / +1011 at Kalshi)

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Enciso is my high-variance dart at 9 cents. Paraguay found the net just twice in four matches at this World Cup, so nobody expects a shootout. But Enciso is the one Paraguayan who can turn a single moment into a goal.

He scored the header that sent the Germany match to penalties, and he is a set-piece and penalty option for La Albirroja. If Paraguay break the French press and catch Deschamps’ back line pushed high, Enciso has the finishing to punish it.

A half-unit on the underdog’s most likely scorer is worth a look when the payout stretches all the way to +1011.

France vs Paraguay Tournament Form

France won all three group games, beating Senegal 3-1, Iraq 3-0, and Norway 4-1, then followed with a 3-0 win over Sweden in the Round of 32. That is a team scoring at will, with Mbappe and Olise driving the attack.

Paraguay’s road looked shakier on paper, including a 4-1 loss to the United States and a scoreless draw with Australia, but they saved their best for the knockout round. Grinding out the Germany upset showed the blueprint works. The question is whether they can pull it off twice against a sharper opponent.

These two also share World Cup history. Les Bleus needed a 114th-minute golden goal from Laurent Blanc to edge Paraguay in the 1998 Round of 16 on their way to the title, proof that the South Americans can make France sweat even when the gap looks wide.