Best Bets, Props & Splits for Pirates vs Yankees

• The Pirates and Yankees open up an Interleague Series tonight in New York
• I’m expecting runs to be at a premium, putting Under 7.5 runs squarely in play
• Keep reading for the best bets, props and splits for Pirates vs Yankees

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The New York Yankees (54-43) welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (51-48) to Yankee Stadium for the opening game of their interleague series tonight. Both clubs enter this matchup riding solid momentum. The hometown favorites are fresh off a tight 2-1 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers, fueled by a clutch home run from Jazz Chisholm Jr and error-free defense.

Meanwhile, the Pirates hit the road after a decisive 7-1 thrashing of the Cleveland Guardians. First pitch from the Bronx is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET, with live coverage broadcast on the YES Network and SportsNet PT.

With heavy hitters anchoring the lineup, New York opens as the definitive home favorite in the MLB odds against the scrappy road underdogs. Keep reading for the best bets, props and splits for Pirates vs Yankees, below.

Best Bets and Props for Pirates vs Yankees

While specific situational betting trends are limited for this interleague clash, a deep dive into season-long metrics in the MLB starting lineups reveal clear betting angles. Despite Pittsburgh boasting a productive offense overall, New York holds the structural advantages necessary to defend its home turf.

Moneyline Pick: Yankees ML (54¢ on Kalshi)

The Pirates have outscored the Yankees 533 to 467 on the season. However, New York features an elite pitching staff that acts as the great equalizer. The staff collectively owns a 3.40 team ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, significantly outperforming Pittsburgh’s 4.26 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, while keeping their hopes in the World Series odds alive.

Crucially, the late innings heavily favor the Bronx Bombers. New York boasts a dominant bullpen with a 3.12 ERA, while Pittsburgh has struggled to a 4.44 mark. I am backing the Yankees to pull away late. Taking the “Yes” contract on Kalshi for 54¢ provides better implied value than traditional sportsbooks. Don’t forget to claim the Kalshi referral code to score a bonus to bet on MLB.

Over/Under Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (+100, Caesars)

I expect a pitchers’ duel that keeps scoring at a premium. Pittsburgh starter Braxton Ashcraft has been stellar over 113.1 innings, posting a 3.49 ERA and a sparkling 1.11 WHIP. On the other side, Yankees starter Ryan Weathers has supreme swing-and-miss stuff, fanning 10.14 batters per nine innings. Both arms have the arsenal to bypass contact and string together zeroes.

Ryan Weathers vs Braxton Ashcraft Stats

The tale of the tape paints Ashcraft as the significantly more consistent pitcher. Boasting a sparkling 9-3 record alongside a 3.49 season ERA, Ashcraft has been the epitome of efficiency. His underlying metrics, including a 3.32 FIP, indicate that his success is no fluke.

During his last 10 outings, Ashcraft has seen his strikeout rate balloon to 11.17 K/9 while issuing just 2.02 walks per nine innings. On the opposing bump, Weathers aligns closely with Ashcraft by generating 10.14 K/9 on the season. However, hard contact and a lack of late-inning stamina have hampered his effectiveness.

Best Player Prop: Ben Rice Over 1.5 Total Bases (+114, BetMGM)

If you are looking for an edge in MLB player props, slugger Ben Rice offers exceptional value. Rice has been a revelation, slashing .281/.372/.600 with an enormous .972 OPS and 29 home runs. Given his massive .600 slugging percentage per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats, getting plus money on him to record at least two total bases is my premier value play.

Odds for Pirates vs Yankees

Odds as of July 20 from Caesars. Claim the Caesars promo code now.

Splits for Pirates vs Yankees

A dive into the MLB public betting splits reveals a heavily one-sided market. The betting public and sharp money are fully aligned on the home team. New York commands 76.2% of the tickets and 79.4% of the overall money on the moneyline.

Bettors are also aggressively fading my projection for a low-scoring pitchers’ duel. The Over is currently dominating the total market, pulling in 64.8% of the tickets. The financial backing is even more staggering, with a massive 87.3% of the handle tied to the Over. Backing the Under means sweating it out as a true contrarian tonight.