Alvin Kamara Suffers MCL Sprain: Latest Kalshi Markets for Saints Win Total

• The New Orleans Saints are a trendy NFL pick to make a rapid improvement this season after a late hot streak in 2026
• However, the positive vibes in The Big Easy took a hit when running back Alvin Kamara suffered a sprained MCL; he is expected to miss at least a month
• The Saints’ 2026 season will likely be impacted by the loss of Kamara, and prediction markets have options for the Saints’ win total this season

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For years, Alvin Kamara was a focal point of the Saints’ offense with Drew Brees at quarterback and Sean Payton running the show as head coach. As the team’s fortunes declined with Brees’s retirement and Payton’s departure, Kamara’s numbers declined as well. The 5X Pro Bowler is suffering the inevitable wear-and-tear that afflicts every running back. However, he can still be effective as a runner and pass catcher out of the backfield as long as his usage is reduced commensurately with the physical realities and his age (31).

Kamara’s outlook for the 2026/27 season took a major hit on Tuesday with the running back suffering what is now confirmed to be an MCL sprain. Initial reports suggest the veteran is expected to miss at least a month, which will include the first few games of the season.

Saints head coach Kellen Moore is a former pro quarterback and a proven play caller with a Super Bowl ring as the offensive coordinator of the 2024-25 Super Bowl champion Eagles. Now that he has his long-term solution at quarterback in Tyler Shough, the Saints’ trajectory is heading upward. Even with Kamara being used more judiciously and sharing the backfield with the younger Travis Etienne Jr., his loss will be noticeable. The question is: How will it affect their 2026 win total?

Prediction markets offer users the opportunity to weigh in on the Saints’ 2026 win total amid the concerns surrounding Kamara and how long he will be sidelined.

Kalshi Markets for Saints Total Wins After Kamara Injury

Trading volume for this market on Kalshi is light at the moment, sitting just a shade under $63,000.

Users en masse believe the Saints will win at least 5 games. The numbers range from just under 90% for them to get to 5+ and rise from the low to high-90s to win up to 5. It is at about 80% for them to win 6+, the same number they achieved in 2025.

Just shy of 70% say they will win 7+. It is in the mid-50s for them to win 8+. About 40% say they will get to 9+, which will assuredly put them in playoff contention. Slightly below 30% say they will win 10+.

It is under 20% for them to win 11+. Twelve percent say they will take a massive leap, doubling their 2025 win total and getting to 12+ wins. It is in the mid-single digits for them to win 13+ and 15+. Strangely, 10% say they replicate the Patriots’ turnaround from 2024 to 2025 and vault to the area cordoned off for league powerhouses, winning 14+.

For those who want to take part, the Kalshi referral code offers a $25 bonus after $25 in trades are completed.

How Will Kamara’s Absence Impact the Saints’ 2026-27 Win Total?

The Saints started the 2025 season by losing eight of their first nine games, with one win coming against the equally terrible New York Giants. But once they switched quarterbacks from Spencer Rattler to Shough, they won five of their final eight to finish the season with a 6-11 record. League observers gave a “Hmmm…” nod of acknowledgment and a “we’ll see” side-to-side head bob.

Before that run, the Saints were trade deadline sellers, sending wide receiver Rashid Shaheed to the Seattle Seahawks, where he was a key part of their Super Bowl LX victory; and their former 1st-round pick in the NFL Draft, offensive lineman Trevor Penning, to the Los Angeles Chargers. It made sense for the team to also move Kamara, with speculation centered on a deal with Denver to rejoin Payton to boost the Broncos’ Super Bowl aspirations.

But the veteran expressed his desire to stay in New Orleans and the team complied. Weeks after the deadline, he suffered an MCL sprain and missed the remainder of the season. Perhaps keeping him out was a safety precaution given the team’s status as an also-ran in the middle of a rebuild.

Now he’s suffered another MCL injury. It has not been specified whether it’s the same knee.

There are multiple factors that come into play when making a prediction about the Saints’ win total.

Yes, they did improve greatly late last season after Shough got his feet under him and Moore had a quarterback who could run his offense. But their wins came against the reeling Buccaneers, the flawed but improving Panthers (twice), the horrendous Jets, and the equally horrendous Titans.

It’s not as if they upset the Rams or Seahawks here.

In 2026, their schedule is middling. They have some tough assignments with the Lions, Ravens, Vikings, Steelers, Bears, and Packers. But they are also playing teams that are largely in the same boat as they are: the Raiders, Falcons (twice), Giants, Browns, Panthers (twice), Bengals, Bucs (twice), and Cardinals.

A 6-5 record against similarly mediocre and rebuilding/retooling teams, plus an upset or two against expected contenders, gets them to seven or eight wins.

Kamara’s contribution, useful though it would be, is mitigated by his age and rising frequency of dings and dents that are slowing him or outright shutting him down. His statistics in 2025 can be put into the context of a new offense, a shaky QB in Rattler, and a porous offensive line.

Etienne is only 27, has not taken the beating Kamara has, has rushed for 1,000-plus yards three times, and has breakaway ability on rushing plays. He can catch the ball out of the backfield, though not as effectively as Kamara, for whom pass-catching is his strength.

The Saints will find a useful piece for the backfield via trade or on the waiver wire as teams make their cuts in the coming weeks, and Moore will tailor the offense to function without Kamara. It will not have a noticeable impact on their win total while he’s out and, when he returns, he’ll provide a much-needed jolt.

The Saints should get to at least 8 wins. And 9 is an even more profitable, and likely, outcome. A sanguine projection could even get them to 10.