Who Will be the Next James Bond? Latest From Prediction Markets

• James Bond is one of cinema’s most iconic characters, and the search for an actor to play the legendary 007 becomes a pop culture phenomenon in and of itself
• Bond has not appeared on the big screen for five years since Daniel Craig put in his final performance in the role in No Time to Die; the current intimation from producer Amy Pascal is that the new Bond will be revealed by the end of 2026
• Prediction markets are monitoring the rumors as to who will secure the coveted role and are offering options for users to weigh in on who they think it will be

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Few fictional characters create a reflexive response like James Bond. Immediately, the mere mentioning of his name creates an image of a suave, debonair, handsome, and cultured Brit who combines sex appeal with ingenuity and ruthlessness in serving MI6, the British Intelligence Service, and protecting the Crown. No challenge is too great for Bond to overcome; no villain too invincible; no woman too unattainable; no situation too dire.

These traits brought Bond to life in the 1960s, and make it imperative for the franchise to pick the right actor to fill the tuxedo.

Amazon MGM Studios is currently developing the 26th Bond film. Director Denis Villeneuve is set to helm the project. There are few hotter directors in the world than Villeneuve, who recently completed filming the third installment of the Dune trilogy.

The apparent target for an actor to be named as the next Bond is within the next few months. The film is expected to be released in 2028.

Prediction markets have options for which actor will get the nod, and users can weigh in for a potential profit when it is revealed.

Prediction Markets for Next James Bond

Volume for this market is already past $1.8 million. With decision time looming and media coverage increasing, it will rise significantly in the coming months.

Three names are generally viewed as the frontrunners.

Relative unknown Jack Barton leads the way with one-third of users picking him to be the next Bond. Callum Turner, fresh off a star turn in the romantic comedy One Night Only, is also at around 33%. And Jack Lowden, who started as a renowned stage actor and is already playing a spy in Slow Horses, is at about 25%.

For those who want to make a pick, the Kalshi referral code offers new users a $25 bonus once they have completed $25 in trades.

According to the rules, the market will resolve to Yes if the selection is cast as the next James Bond before Jan. 1, 2030. The outcome will be verified by Variety.

This is for the authorized James Bond series of films. Any spinoff or unauthorized production is not included.

Jack Barton

Barton, 31 and a graduate of the Oxford School of Drama, is a relative unknown whose rise to the top of the list to play 007 has been stunning, with most observers saying, “Who?“

He has the acting chops which, increasingly, are more important than the prototypical James Bond “look” of tall, lean, and handsome, but with an apparent edge necessary to be a killer when necessary. Barton is not a prototype as Bond. His face is far from chiseled and does not look like he would be particularly comfortable ordering a martini (shaken, not stirred). Still, Daniel Craig was the first actor who did not fit Bond’s classic description. He, however, was a known entity, whereas Barton is not.

This hinges on whether Villeneuve wants an actor’s actor to perform in a serious action film or the studio will push for someone who neatly fits the character and asks for more “who could survive that?” explosions and villainous contraptions.

Pascal is willing to take risks, but this one could be too big a risk.

Callum Turner

Turner carried himself well as a romantic lead in One Night Only and did work as a model despite slightly unconventional looks with protruding ears. He had a prominent role in the Fantastic Beasts films. He is married to pop superstar Dua Lipa, so he will automatically have name recognition to the younger demographic, which is a lucrative target for film studios.

Like Barton, Turner has the acting ability to play the role if they’re looking solely for an actor. But if they want someone who has the Bond look, then they might need to change the character’s backstory to a former MMA fighter whose face has taken some punishment before joining Her Majesty’s Secret Service.

Jack Lowden

Like Sean Connery, Lowden is Scottish. The original lineage of Fleming’s fictional character is Scottish. With that, he fills the bill.

The 36-year-old has a look similar to that of Ewan McGregor with lighter hair, once diametrically opposed to the jet-black ‘do sported by every actor from Connery to George Lazenby, Roger Moore, Timothy Dalton, and Pierce Brosnan. But Craig broke that mold, so it’s not as much of an issue anymore.

Lowden plays an MI5 agent in Apple TV’s Slow Horses. He is a well-regarded actor who would be effective as Bond if they maintain the tilt toward “serious” action and not the over-the-top Bond that took hold with Moore and maintained the wink-and-nod lean toward camp until Brosnan made it a bit more realistic.

Predictions for the Next James Bond

As with any casting decision for a character fans hold dear, there will be criticism regardless of what the studio decides. It does not appear that there will be the slide into ridiculousness as there was when Moore’s Bond was constantly fighting Richard Kiel’s Jaws and threw him off trains, electrocuted him, and shot him into space only to see Jaws get up, straighten his tie, and walk off to continue his day.

Obviously, there will be more judicious portrayals of Bond’s womanizing since watching Connery’s Bond and how he, shall we say, exerted his will with women is not going to fly today. They do not want to go down the road of Dalton with his forgettable films. Lazenby was underrated in his sole performance as 007, presumably because he was Australian. In the 1970s, Burt Reynolds famously turned down the role.

For this go-round, the actor who best typifies the character among the three top candidates is probably Lowden. But there’s always room for a surprise, particularly if the studio does some market research and one, two, or all three are found not to be desirable to the fans who will ultimately make the determination as to whether it was the right pick.