Turkey vs France Expert Picks & Odds for the UEFA Nations League
By Miguel Alvim in Soccer News
Published:
- France is a heavy favorite against Turkey at -208, with France -1.5 (+127) our top pick
- We’re targeting Under 3.5 goals (-137) in this UEFA Nations League matchup
- France to win the first half (-108) is our third betting pick, with key injuries affecting both teams
The 2026-27 UEFA Nations League is already underway, with Turkey set to host France on Friday, September 25, at 2:45 p.m. ET. The League A matchup will mark the opening game of the campaign for both teams.
France, ranked third in the FIFA world rankings (1948.97 points), enters as the heavy favorite against 27th-ranked Turkey (1582.54 points). Zinedine Zidane’s team has won 10 of its last 14 competitive matches. Vincenzo Montella’s Turkey secured promotion from Nations League B after beating Hungary 3-1 and 3-0 in the playoffs.
From a betting perspective, France’s attacking depth is a major factor, with Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembelé, and Michael Olise among its key threats. Turkey will look to Arda Güler, Kerem Aktürkoglu, and Can Uzun to provide enough attacking quality to challenge the visitors.
Turkey vs France Odds
Odds as of September 24 at theScore Bet.
France is a heavy favorite in the current moneyline market at -208, while Turkey is priced at +500 and the draw is +380.
After removing the sportsbook’s vig, the moneyline implies a 66.5% chance of a France win, a 14.6% chance of a Turkey win, and an 18.9% chance of a draw.
A $10 bet on France at -208 would return $14.81 in total, including $4.81 in profit. A $10 bet on Turkey at +500 would return $60.00, including $50 in profit, if the home side wins.
The moneyline has also moved since opening, with France going from -233 to -208 and Turkey moving from +475 to +500. The total opened at 3.5 goals, with the Over at +125 and Under at -179. The Under has since moved to -159.
Best Bets and Predictions for Turkey vs. France
With this matchup opening the UEFA Nations League campaign, the analysis focuses on tactical matchups, recent form, and historical head-to-head data. Based on these factors, three wagers stand out as the primary betting angles for this matchup.
If you plan to place a bet, be sure to claim your theScore Bet promo code before kickoff.
Pick 1: France -1.5 (+127 / 44% at Polymarket)
My primary pick is France -1.5 at +127, a price that implies roughly a 44% probability of covering the handicap at Polymarket. France have won four of the six previous meetings between the nations, including 4-0 victories in October 1996 and November 2000 and a 3-2 win in June 2003. In those head-to-head encounters, France have also held a substantial possession advantage, averaging 61.0% compared with Turkey’s 39.0%, while generating 12.0 shots per game versus Turkey’s 7.5.
France also hold a clear advantage in individual attacking quality, with Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, Rayan Cherki, and Lucas Da Cunha offering multiple ways to create chances. Turkey could be further weakened by the absences of Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız, removing two important options for midfield creativity and attacking progression.
The combination of France’s greater attacking depth, the possession advantage France has held in recent meetings, and Turkey’s absences gives the visitors a path to creating sustained pressure. If France convert their territorial advantage into an early goal, Turkey may be forced to open up, creating additional opportunities for France to win by two or more goals.
Pick 2: Under 3.5 Goals (-137 / 58% at Polymarket)
My second wager is the Under 3.5 total goals market at -137, a price that implies roughly a 58% probability. The two most recent meetings, both in the Euro 2020 qualifying campaign, produced only three goals combined: Turkey won 2-0 at home before the teams drew 1-1 in the return fixture. The broader head-to-head history has produced more goals, however, including France’s 4-0 victories in 1996 and 2000 and their 3-2 win in 2003. The Under 3.5 has therefore landed in three of the six previous meetings.
Turkey’s defensive organization under Vincenzo Montella provides another reason to consider the Under. The team has demonstrated an ability to protect leads and keep opponents from creating high-scoring games, including clean-sheet victories against Romania and Kosovo. France’s recent competitive record also includes several low-scoring matches: a 0-0 draw with the Netherlands, a 1-1 draw with Poland, and a 1-0 win over Belgium at Euro 2024.
The absence of Hakan Çalhanoğlu could further affect Turkey’s ability to progress the ball through midfield, potentially encouraging a more conservative approach against France’s superior attacking talent. That said, France’s firepower makes this a more vulnerable wager than a typical low-scoring matchup: an early French goal could force Turkey to become more aggressive and push the game toward four goals.
At -137, the price is not especially cheap, but the combination of Turkey’s defensive approach, the recent low-scoring head-to-head meetings, and France’s history of playing several controlled matches in major competitions makes the Under 3.5 a reasonable secondary angle.
Pick 3: France to Win First Half (-108 / 52% at Kalshi)
My third play is France to lead at halftime. Kalshi prices a France first-half win at 52%, equivalent to -108 implied odds. France’s attacking depth gives them multiple ways to create chances early, particularly with Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé capable of stretching Turkey’s defense from wide areas.
That early pressure could be especially important against a Turkey side dealing with key absences in midfield and attack. France should have more of the ball and territory from the opening whistle, while Turkey may prioritize defensive organization and look to absorb pressure. If France can turn that territorial advantage into an early goal, they have a strong opportunity to take a lead into halftime.
At -108, the first-half moneyline offers a more conservative alternative to laying 1.5 goals on the full-game handicap. The wager still carries risk—particularly if Turkey successfully keeps France scoreless through the opening 45 minutes—but France’s attacking quality and expected control of the match make the first-half market an attractive angle.
Turkey vs France Head-to-Head History
The head-to-head record provides useful context for this matchup. The teams have met six times since 1996 across multiple competitions:
All-Time Record: France 4 wins, Turkey 1 win, 1 draw
France has dominated the series, outscoring Turkey 12-5 across six meetings. Turkey’s only win came at home in Konya during the 2019 European Championship qualifiers. Even in that 2-0 defeat, France controlled possession and generated more chances.
Although France did not win either match in 2019, the underlying numbers favored the French. France controlled possession and generated more attacking chances across the two games. The French also averaged more than three times as many corners as Turkey, another indication of the territorial control they could have in this matchup.
Turkey vs France Injury Report Updates
Both teams will be without several notable players heading into this UEFA Nations League match. Here are the confirmed absences:
Turkey Missing Players
France Missing Players
Both teams will be affected by these absences, although Turkey could feel the impact more given its squad depth. Calhanoglu is a central figure in the midfield and one of the team’s primary creative outlets, while Yildiz’s absence removes another important attacking option.
France will also be without several key players, with Saliba and Tchouameni among the most notable absences. Maxence Lacroix and Dayot Upamecano are projected to start at center back, while Manu Kone could take on a larger role in midfield.
Despite these absences, France still has considerable depth and quality throughout its squad. Les Bleus have several high-level options available, giving them plenty of flexibility when replacing missing players.
Turkey vs France Projected Lineups
- Turkey (Montella): Çakır; Çelik, Demiral, Bardakcı, Kadıoğlu; Özcan, Yüksek; Güler, Üçok, Aktürkoğlu; Yılmaz,
- France (Zidane): Maignan; Koundé, Lacroix, Upamecano, Truffert; Koné, Da Cunha; Cherki, Olise, Dembélé; Mbappé,
With more than a decade of experience as a writer, editor, and content manager, Miguel has built a career creating engaging sports content for international audiences. He is multilingual journalist with a strong passion for numerous sports, especially soccer.
