Week 4 NFL Picks Against the Spread – Best ATS Picks for All 16 Games
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Updated: September 28, 2026 at 12:00 am EDTPublished:
Did you blink? Week 4 of the NFL season is already here. The NFL playoff bracket picture is taking early shape as the betting board fills with actionable angles. Week 4 kicks off on Thursday, October 2, when the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) visit the – dare I say streaking? – Cleveland Browns (2-1), and concludes on Monday, October 6, with the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints on MNF.
A key Week k matchup features the Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) and Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) vying for early supremacy in the AFC West. Elsewhere, the undefeated Buffalo Bills, Minnesota Vikings, and San Francisco 49ers aim to protect their division leads.
I have run all 16 Week 4 games through SBD’s A.I. prediction model in order to generate its top ATS pick for each game. The table below summarizes the Week 4 ATS picks. Under the table, I have set out the computer’s reasoning for each ATS pick.
NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 4
This year’s ATS picks didn’t come flying out of the gate. But Week 3 was a slight improvement on back-to-back 7-9 weeks, sitting at 7-7-1 heading into MNF.
Steelers vs Browns ATS Pick: Cleveland +2.5 (+100 at Kalshi)
The Steelers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) average 17.7 points per game while the Browns (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) produce 18.0. Aaron Rodgers (700 pass yards, 4 TD) and Deshaun Watson (587 pass yards, 5 TD, 105 rush yards) face stout defensive schemes in a tight divisional grind. Cleveland has built momentum with consecutive straight-up and against-the-spread victories, including a Week 3 road win at Carolina. In a matchup defined by the field position battle where Pittsburgh manages only 303.3 yards per game, the home underdog holds clear structural value catching points. Pick: Browns +2.5
Colts vs Commanders ATS Pick: Washington +3.5 (-117 at Kalshi)
The Commanders (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) hum at 25.0 PPG behind Marcus Mariota’s 109.7 passer rating and a 4-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Colts (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) post 24.0 PPG, leaning heavily on Jonathan Taylor (258 rush yards, 4 TD). However, Indianapolis’ defense has surrendered 417.3 total yards per game (third-highest in the NFL) alongside 30.3 PPG, while Washington has already covered twice as an underdog this season. Backing the home underdog provides a distinct mathematical edge in this high-variance setup. Pick: Commanders +3.5
Cardinals vs Giants ATS Pick: Arizona +2.5 (-127 at Polymarket)
The Cardinals (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) average 21.0 PPG and 303.0 total yards per game, outperforming a Giants (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) offense mustering just 15.3 PPG (bottom-five in the NFL) and 271.3 YPG. Jacoby Brissett’s 91.5 passer rating and 70.1% completion rate provide pocket presence and ball security against a New York defense yielding 18.3 PPG. Arizona has already covered in both of its games as an underdog this season (+9.5 vs. LAC, +7.5 at SF), making the road underdog a high-value play against an inefficient favorite. Pick: Cardinals +2.5
Patriots vs Bills ATS Pick: Buffalo -6.5 (-113 at Polymarket)
The undefeated Bills (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) boast a dominant offense leading the league with 33.7 PPG and 401.7 total yards per game. Josh Allen has been unstoppable, averaging 262.0 passing YPG with 11 total touchdowns (five passing, six rushing), complemented by James Cook’s 346 rushing yards (115.3 YPG). The Patriots (1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) struggle immensely, tied for a league-low 12.0 PPG behind Drake Maye’s NFL-high six interceptions. Lay the heavy number with the superior home favorite against an outmatched offense. Pick: Bills -7.0
Jets vs Bears ATS Pick: Chicago -2.5 (-122 at Kalshi)
The Bears (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) guide an attack generating a league-best 424.5 total yards and 31.0 PPG behind Caleb Williams (514 total yards, 4 total TD) and D’Andre Swift’s 84.5 rushing yards per game (169 yards, 3 TD). The Jets (1-2 SU, 2-0-1 ATS) score 21.3 PPG behind Geno Smith (783 pass yards, 75.5% completion rate). While New York’s defense is stout (258.3 YPG allowed), Chicago’s ground game (158.0 rush YPG) and explosive playmaking justify laying a field goal at Soldier Field. Pick: Bears -3.0
Cowboys vs Texans ATS Pick: Dallas +2.5 (-104 at Polymarket)
The Cowboys (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) deploy an explosive attack scoring 29.3 PPG behind Dak Prescott (730 pass yards, 7 TD) and Javonte Williams (169 rush yards, 2 TD). The Texans (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) remain winless straight up and against the spread, managing only 18.0 PPG despite C.J. Stroud’s 794 passing yards. With Houston failing to cover in three straight outings and Dallas consistently generating chunk plays through the air, the road underdog boasts a significant scoring and situational advantage. Pick: Cowboys +2.5
Rams vs Eagles ATS Pick: Philadelphia +2.5 (-117 at Kalshi)
The Eagles (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) produce 24.0 PPG behind Jalen Hurts (467 pass yards, 5 TD), but have yet to cover a spread this season. The Rams (1-1-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) counter with Matthew Stafford (681 pass yards, 5 TD) and a smothering defense limiting opponents to 16.3 PPG and just 247.3 total yards per game. With both defensive schemes allowing under 22 points weekly and Los Angeles controlling tempo via Kyren Williams and Blake Corum (355 combined rush yards), taking the home underdog is the sharp angle when points are at a premium.
Packers vs Buccaneers ATS Pick: Tampa Bay +3.5 (-108 at Kalshi)
The Buccaneers (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) outscore the Packers (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) 20.7 to 18.7 PPG, backed by a defense yielding 282.7 total yards per game compared to Green Bay’s 340.7. Jordan Love’s 83.5 passer rating and 52.4% completion rate have stalled the Packers’ offense, contributing to an 0-3 ATS start while allowing 30.3 PPG defensively. With Bucky Irving (180 rush yards) facing Green Bay’s porous run defense, take the points with the shorthanded home squad, despite the absence of QB1 Baker Mayfield.
Titans vs Ravens ATS Pick: Baltimore -11.5 (+100 at Kalshi)
The Ravens (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) average 30.7 PPG (third in the NFL) and 398.7 total yards per game, fueled by Lamar Jackson (869 total yards, 5 total TD) and Derrick Henry (301 rush yards, 6 TD). The Titans (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) languish at 12.3 PPG and 249.3 YPG while Cam Ward navigates growing pains under center. Tennessee’s offense lacks the firepower to keep pace with Baltimore’s top-tier ground attack, making the heavy favorite the clear play to dominate possession and pull away. Pick: Ravens -11.5
Jaguars vs Bengals ATS Pick: Jacksonville +2.5 (-104 at Kalshi)
The Jaguars (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) score 27.3 PPG behind Trevor Lawrence (7 TD, 2 INT) and Bhayshul Tuten (204 rush yards, 2 TD), while pairing it with an NFL-best scoring defense allowing just 12.0 PPG. The Bengals (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) produce 26.7 PPG behind Joe Burrow (743 pass yards, 6 TD, 70.9% completion rate) and Chase Brown (197 rush yards). With Jacksonville generating elite turnover differential and defensive pressure while covering in two of three contests, backing the road underdog provides premier ATS value in a coin-flip matchup. Pick: Jaguars +2.5
Dolphins vs Vikings ATS Pick: Minnesota -9.5 (-113 at Kalshi)
The undefeated Vikings (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) score 23.7 PPG while anchoring one of the league’s stingiest defenses, yielding just 13.7 PPG (second-best in the NFL). Minnesota has been a model of consistency at the window, covering all three games to start the season behind a balanced ground attack led by Aaron Jones Sr. (203 rush yards). The Dolphins (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) average a league-worst 12.0 PPG while surrendering 28.7 PPG, struggling to find rhythm with Malik Willis under center (one passing touchdown, two interceptions). Lay the double-digit points with a dominant home favorite against a winless squad that has failed to cover in three straight. Pick: Vikings -10.5
Chiefs vs Raiders ATS Pick: Kansas City -4.5 (+104 at Polymarket)
Both AFC West rivals enter this matchup at 3-0 SU, but Kansas City (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) brings superior balance, generating 29.3 PPG and 416.3 total yards per game behind Patrick Mahomes (812 pass yards, 7 TD) and league-leading rusher Kenneth Walker III (360 rush yards, 2 TD). The Raiders (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) have been explosive behind Kirk Cousins’ nine touchdown passes (29.3 PPG), but face their stiffest test yet against a Chiefs defense limiting opponents to 16.7 PPG and 278.0 YPG. Kansas City’s sustained offensive efficiency and top-five total defense justify laying the points on the road. Pick: Chiefs -5.5
Chargers vs Seahawks ATS Pick: Seattle -6.5 (-108 at Kalshi)
The Seahawks (2-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) generate 25.0 PPG and 367.7 total yards per game, supported by an elite defensive unit that leads the NFL by allowing a minuscule 228.7 total yards and only 16.7 points per game. The Chargers (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) remain winless straight up and against the spread, plagued by an offense averaging just 14.7 PPG and a minus-four turnover differential despite Justin Herbert’s 627 passing yards. Back Seattle’s smothering defense and dynamic multi-quarterback attack (814 combined pass yards, 8 TD) to pull away for a comfortable home cover. Pick: Seahawks -6.5
Broncos vs 49ers ATS Pick: San Francisco -3.0 (-110 at BetMGM)
The undefeated 49ers (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) boast one of the NFL’s most complete rosters, generating 32.7 PPG (second in the league) and 399.3 total yards per game behind Brock Purdy’s nine passing touchdowns and Christian McCaffrey (166 rush yards, 3 TD). The Broncos (1-1-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) have labored offensively, producing just 15.3 PPG and ranking 31st in total offense at 249.7 YPG under Bo Nix (543 pass yards). San Francisco’s top-tier red zone execution and disruptive defense (16.7 PPG allowed) create an overwhelming mismatch against an inefficient Denver attack. Pick: 49ers -3.0
Lions vs Panthers ATS Pick: Detroit -2.5 (-122 at Kalshi)
The Lions (2-1 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) field an explosive attack averaging 31.0 PPG and 368.3 total yards per game behind Jared Goff’s 70.6% completion rate, eight passing touchdowns, and zero interceptions, alongside Jahmyr Gibbs’ 307 rushing yards (4 TD). The Panthers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) feature a high-flying offense of their own at 29.7 PPG and 392.7 YPG led by Bryce Young’s league-high 939 passing yards and seven scores. However, Carolina’s defense has surrendered 27.7 PPG, and Detroit’s turnover-free aerial execution gives the road favorite the decisive edge to cover the field goal. Pick: Lions -3.0
Falcons vs Saints ATS Pick: New Orleans -2.5 (-117 at Polymarket)
The Saints (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) produce 27.0 PPG and 382.7 total yards per game behind rookie sensation Tyler Shough, who ranks second in the NFL with 917 passing yards and eight touchdowns. The Falcons (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) score only 17.0 PPG despite Bijan Robinson’s 349 rushing yards, severely hampered by quarterback turnover issues that have resulted in six interceptions across three games. With New Orleans holding an 8-to-3 advantage in passing touchdowns and already boasting two ATS covers as a favorite, lay the short spread with the superior home passing attack.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
