Late-Night College Football ATS Picks: Week 5 Saturday Best Bets

• Three late Saturday games with kickoffs from 9:30 p.m. ET on, two of them in Arizona
• An undefeated Cincinnati team on the road and a Baylor defense that has held four straight opponents under 20
• Read below for my three late-night college football ATS picks and the Week 5 odds

The late window on Saturday, October 3 gives us three games and all three sit inside a touchdown. Fresno State at Washington State starts at 9:30 p.m. ET on USA, Baylor at Arizona State follows at 10:30 on ESPN, and Cincinnati at Arizona closes it out at 11 on FOX.

Cincinnati is the only unbeaten team in the group at 4-0. Arizona is 3-1, Baylor is 3-1, and Arizona State is 2-1 after a bye that followed its 24-17 win over Kansas in London.

I am looking at how these offenses finish drives and which defenses can keep the score close. Below are my three late-night college football ATS picks and the numbers I am playing.

Late-Night College Football ATS Picks for Week 5

BetMGM spreads and prices as of October 2 for the October 3 games.

Pick #1: Cincinnati +6.5 vs Arizona

Cincinnati is 4-0 after a 31-26 win over Kansas State, and Arizona is 3-1 off a 34-24 win over Washington State. The Bearcats are scoring 40.5 points a game on 477.8 total yards, which is the best offensive profile in this window by a wide margin.

JC French IV is completing 74.5% of his throws with zero interceptions, and Cincinnati has turned 16 of 18 red zone trips into touchdowns. Finishing drives at that rate is how a road underdog stays inside a touchdown even on a bad night.

Arizona’s run defense looks the part at 80.3 rushing yards allowed per game, and it has been especially stingy on first down, holding opponents to 1.90 yards per carry in those situations. Cincinnati runs for 270.0 yards a game with two backs over 300 rushing yards each, so something gives here.

Noah Fifita has thrown four touchdown passes in each of Arizona’s last two games, so the Wildcats can absolutely win this outright. I just want the 6.5 with a team that moves the ball like Cincinnati does. Worth tracking the college football odds for late movement.

• Cincinnati +6.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

Pick #2: Baylor +4 vs Arizona State

Baylor is 3-1 after a 23-13 win over Colorado, with the only blemish a last-second loss to Auburn. The Bears have held four straight opponents under 20 points and allow 13.0 points a game on the season.

Arizona State’s 38.0 points per game needs context. That average includes a 70-7 win over Morgan State, and the Sun Devils also lost 48-20 to Texas A&M. Take the Morgan State game out and the offense looks a lot more ordinary.

Baylor outgains Arizona State 435.8 total yards to 426.0 per game, though the Sun Devils have real strengths on defense. They allow only 161.3 passing yards a game and have held opponents to 12 of 40 on third down, a 30% clip.

The number is the draw. At +4, a three-point loss still cashes and a four-point loss pushes rather than losing, which matters in a game between two teams likely to trade field goals. New accounts can check the BetMGM promo code before placing it.

• Baylor +4 (-108 at BetMGM)

Pick #3: Washington State -2 vs Fresno State

This is the hardest of the three. Washington State is 1-3 and coming off that 34-24 loss at Arizona, while Fresno State is 3-1 after beating Rice 38-24. I am still laying the short number in Pullman.

Neither defense stops the run. Fresno State allows 171.8 rushing yards a game and Washington State allows 171.0, so that matchup is a wash. The separation is everywhere else, with Fresno State giving up 403.0 total yards a game to Washington State’s 379.0.

Washington State is not an offense to lean on, at 22.3 points and 315.0 total yards a game. Fresno State is only scoring 28.3 itself, though, and the Cougars have the better of two leaky defenses in a game that profiles low-scoring.

Laying 2 means a three-point win covers and a two-point win pushes, which leaves room for a close home win. Worth comparing across College Football betting apps in case anyone still has the 1.5.

• Washington State -2 (-108 at BetMGM)