Braves vs Dodgers Predictions, Picks & Betting Splits (Game 1)

• The Braves and Dodgers square off in Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday
• I’m betting Under 8.5 runs thanks to two suffocating pitching staffs taking the mound
• Keep reading for my Braves vs Dodgers predictions, picks and betting splits for Game 1, below

The Los Angeles Dodgers will take the field as heavy home favorites in the MLB odds when they host the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of the National League Division Series (NLDS) today. First pitch is scheduled for 4:00 PM ET at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, with the series opener broadcast nationally on FOX.

The Dodgers are expected to hand the ball to star pitcher Tarik Skubal to set the tone, while Atlanta will likely deploy an opener after using each of their top-four arms in a hard-fought three-game Wild Card victory over Philadelphia. Keep reading for my Braves vs Dodgers predictions, picks and betting splits for Game 1, below.

Braves vs Dodgers Picks & Predictions

• Total: Under 8.5 Runs (-108 / 52¢ at Polymarket)
• Runline: Braves +1.5 (+100 / 50¢ at Polymarket)
• Player Prop: Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 Hits (-139 at BetMGM)

When evaluating the best angles for this matchup, the season long stats heavily support a low-scoring affair.

Total Pick: Under 8.5 (-108 / 52¢ at Polymarket)

Under 8.5 is well-positioned given the dominant run prevention on both sides and their previous head-to-head trends. Four of the six regular-season clashes between Atlanta and Los Angeles stayed under 8.5 total runs, highlighted by a tight 4–1 decision and a 1–0 pitching duel.

Skubal brings elite form into Game 1 after posting a 2.61 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 70 strikeouts across 62 innings over 10 starts with Los Angeles. Furthermore, the Dodgers went under 8.5 runs in 90 of their 162 regular-season games (55.6%), underscoring how often their top-tier pitching controls the pace of play. New users can claim the Polymarket bonus code to tail this wager.

Tarik Skubal Stats with Dodgers

*Stats are from after Skubal’s midseason trade from DET to LAD.

Skubal boasts a 4-1 record since joining the Dodgers. His underlying metrics are just as impressive, featuring a 2.36 FIP that sits even lower than his traditional ERA.

Armed with a high-octane arsenal, Skubal has struck out batters at a rate of 10.16 per nine innings while maintaining a sterling 5.39 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Opposing hitters have struggled to string base hits together against him, managing just a .228 batting average over the season.

The left-hander was especially dominant in September, going 4–0 with a 1.69 ERA across five outings, capped by a 7.0-inning, three-hit, 10-strikeout, scoreless gem against San Francisco in his regular-season finale.

Runline Pick: Braves +1.5 (+100 / 50¢ at Polymarket)

Because scoring should be scarce, laying heavy juice on Los Angeles is not a smart move. I love the value on the dangerous road underdog catching a run and a half.

Backing Atlanta on the +1.5 runline is supported by their head-to-head mastery over the World Series odds favorite this season. The Braves won five of the six regular-season meetings between the two clubs, taking two of three at Dodger Stadium and outscoring the Dodgers 26–13 overall. Atlanta covered the +1.5 runline in five of those six contests (83.3%) and demonstrated that same high floor throughout the regular season by covering +1.5 in 115 of their 162 games (71.0%). They also carried that form directly into October, covering +1.5 in all three NL Wild Card games against Philadelphia.

Don’t be shy away from this bet just because the Braves are using an opener. Atlanta’s staff boasted a 3.55 team ERA during the regular season, the fifth lowest mark in all of MLB.

Player Prop Pick: Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 Hits (-139 at BetMGM)

Looking at the MLB player props, specific trends point toward fading Ha-Seong Kim.

Kim’s Under 0.5 hits prop offers strong value given his prolonged struggles at the plate. Kim has gone hitless in 12 of his last 15 games with an at-bat across the regular season and Wild Card round, batting just .105 (4-for-38) over that stretch. He was held without a hit in the Wild Card Series against Philadelphia, going 0-for-3 with two strikeouts across two starts.

Over the entire 2026 regular season, Kim batted just .116 (15-for-129) and was held hitless in 33 of the 45 games where he logged at least one at-bat, making a matchup against Skubal particularly difficult.

ATL vs LAD Odds

Odds as of October 3 from BetMGM. Claim the BetMGM promo code for a bonus to use on this game.

Atlanta vs Los Angeles Betting Splits

When lines first opened, the spread sat at Los Angeles -1.5 (+110) and Atlanta +1.5 (-130). Significant public backing has shifted the price. According to the MLB public betting splits, a massive 73.1% of runline tickets and 87.1% of the runline handle are placed on the Dodgers, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the payout down to -105.

The game total experienced early adjustments, opening at a flat 8 runs before ticking up to 8.5. Bettors have flooded the under, now accounting for 58.6% of tickets. However, the financial weight leans slightly toward the over, which commands 51.1% of the money percentage. My official recommendation to take Atlanta +1.5 is a highly contrarian play, fading the general public and the bulk of the handle.