Packers vs Lions Predictions, Splits & Betting Trends (Week 7)

• Green Bay offers excellent value at +3.5 in the Packers vs Lions predictons and picks
• Taking the Over (53.5) provides a prime opportunity to fade the public in Packers vs Lions betting splits
• Continue to read my Packers vs Lions best bets ahead of Week 7 in the 2026 NFL season

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The Detroit Lions (3-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 5-0 O/U) host the division rival Green Bay Packers (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U) for a pivotal NFC North showdown on October 25 at 4:25 PM ET at Ford Field on FOX.

Entering as the home favorite, Detroit brings a highly efficient offense spearheaded by quarterback Jared Goff and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions look to build on a recent victory while currently holding a 65.3% probability of making the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Packers roll in as live road underdogs riding a three-game winning streak. Currently third in the division with a 51.2% postseason probability, Green Bay aims to secure an upset behind quarterback Jordan Love and running back Josh Jacobs. This breakdown covers the NFL odds, specific statistical mismatches, and actionable betting angles to help you identify value before kickoff.

Packers vs Lions Prediction & Best Bets

Best Bet: Over 53.5 Points (-104 / 51¢ at Kalshi)

When projecting how this divisional clash unfolds, backing the Over 53.5 Points stands out as a premier play. Detroit (3-2 SU, 5-0 O/U) boasts an elite scoring unit racking up 32.8 points and 393.8 total yards per game. The Lions operate with ruthless precision in scoring territory, converting a stellar 77.3% of their red zone trips into touchdowns, while all five of their contests in 2026 have flown Over the total. Green Bay (4-2 SU, 2-4 O/U) contributes 21.2 points and 329.2 total yards per game behind Jordan Love, who averages 280.7 passing yards per outing.

Together, these offenses combine for 54.0 points per contest, exceeding the game total before factoring in Ford Field’s fast-paced, high-efficiency turf conditions. With Detroit allowing a league-high 297.4 passing yards per game through the air and both units sporting positive turnover differentials that generate short fields, this matchup is primed to become a fast-paced shootout that sails past this number.

ATS Pick: Green Bay Packers +3.5 (+100 at Novig) – Lock in the NOVIG PROMO CODE before trading on GB/DET

For spread bettors, taking Green Bay Packers +3.5 provides critical insurance on the other side of the key number of three. The Packers enter this road spot in strong form, carrying a 4-1 straight-up record over their last five contests and demonstrating dependable execution away from home, where they are 3-1 straight-up following a victory over their last four instances.

Conversely, the Lions have repeatedly stumbled in momentum spots, dropping their last seven games following a win straight-up. Detroit also faces schematic friction against disciplined defenses, posting a 1-5 straight-up mark against top-10 pass defenses over their last six games – a dangerous vulnerability against a Green Bay secondary surrendering only 193.3 passing yards per contest (5th overall). Backing the road underdog to keep this rivalry matchup within a field goal offers mathematically sound value across all major betting markets.

Packers vs Lions Odds

Odds as of October 25 at BetMGM.

The Lions enter this matchup as 3.5-point home favorites, requiring them to win by at least four points to cover the spread. Oddsmakers project a high-scoring affair, setting the total at 53.5 points with slight juice (-111) leaning toward the Over.

When removing the sportsbook’s vig to find the true normalized probabilities, Detroit holds a 61.7% chance of securing the straight-up victory on the moneyline. Green Bay sits at a 38.3% probability of pulling off the road upset.

For bettors looking at the moneyline, a $10 wager on the favored Lions at -182 yields a total payout of $15.49 (a $5.49 profit). Conversely, the same $10 bet on the underdog Packers at +150 offers a potential return of $25.00 ($15.00 in profit).

Looking at how the lines have moved since they first opened, both the spread and the total have seen upward adjustments. The spread opened with Detroit as -3 favorites but pushed to -3.5. Additionally, the opening total of 52.5 points increased by a full point to 53.5.

Green Bay vs Detroit Betting Trends

Always review current NFL ATS records to contextualize these situational betting trends:

• Green Bay is 3-1 (75.0%) on the road following a victory over their last four instances.
• The Packers have secured a win in their last two matchups against Detroit.
• Green Bay has gone 5-2 (71.4%) after a win over their last seven games.
• Detroit is 6-2 (75.0%) at home when facing top 10 scoring defenses over their last eight games.
• The Lions have heavily struggled with momentum, losing their last seven consecutive games following a win.
• Detroit is just 1-5 (16.7%) against top 10 passing defenses over their last six matchups.

GB vs DET Public-Betting Splits

When diving into the NFL public betting splits for this divisional clash, the handle provides valuable insight into where heavy action flows. In the spread market, bettors are heavily backing the road underdog. Green Bay pulls in a massive 73.78% of the total money on 66.92% of the betting tickets. This heavy influx of cash aligns perfectly with the prediction of Green Bay +3.5 to cover.

Moneyline bettors are largely banking on Detroit to win the game outright. Detroit commands 68.18% of the moneyline handle across 69.24% of the submitted tickets.

For the total, betting action is heavily tilted toward a lower-scoring affair. The Under captured 63.25% of the total money and an overwhelming 75.73% of the tickets. This widespread action directly opposes the statistical projection of Over 53.5 points, presenting a clear opportunity to fade the public’s strong expectation for an Under.

GB vs DET Team Stats

The most glaring mismatch is Green Bay’s passing attack taking aim at Detroit’s vulnerable secondary. Green Bay brings a potent aerial assault engineered by Jordan Love, with the Packers offense generating 269.3 passing yards per game at an impressive 7.45 yards per attempt. Love’s passing yards prop sits at 282.5, and he could eclipse that against a Detroit defense yielding 297.4 passing yards per game. Green Bay’s top receiving threat, Christian Watson (over/under 76.5 receiving yards), will likely see heavy volume to exploit this coverage weakness.

The Packers will need to lean on the pass, as their ground game musters just 59.8 rushing yards per contest at a dismal 2.87 yards per carry. Consequently, sportsbooks set running back Josh Jacobs’ rushing yards total at a modest 51.5.

On the flip side, Detroit boasts an explosive and highly efficient offense that puts up a league-leading 32.8 points and 393.8 total yards per game. Quarterback Jared Goff directs the Lions’ passing game, which averages 297.0 passing yards per game and 7.77 yards per attempt. Goff (over/under 281.5 passing yards) relies heavily on Amon-Ra St. Brown, whose receiving prop sits at 78.5 yards.

Where Detroit finds their biggest edge is on the ground. Detroit racks up 114.2 rushing yards per game with a solid 4.39 yards per carry. Dynamic running back Jahmyr Gibbs, carrying an aggressive rushing line of 94.5 yards, will test a Green Bay run defense allowing 114.3 yards per game and 3.99 yards per carry.

Recent Head-to-Head History

While Detroit enters this matchup as the betting favorite, recent history in this divisional rivalry tells a different story. Green Bay has had Detroit’s number as of late, winning their last two consecutive matchups against the Lions.

Looking at current form, both squads arrive carrying momentum from strong victories in their previous outings. Detroit brings a roaring offense back to Michigan after a decisive 45-21 road blowout over the Arizona Cardinals. In that dominant performance, Detroit operated with flawless execution, racking up 412 total yards of offense while committing zero turnovers.

On the other sideline, Green Bay is fresh off a sturdy 23-13 victory over the Dallas Cowboys. The Packers played a balanced, competitive game, controlling the tempo while putting up 318 total yards. If Green Bay hopes to extend its two-game winning streak over Detroit, they will need to replicate that composed performance to keep Detroit’s high-flying offense off the field.

Injury Report Impact

The most glaring injury belongs to Green Bay, who officially ruled out starting middle linebacker Zaire Franklin. Franklin serves as the primary run-stopping anchor in the middle of the field. This creates a highly problematic mismatch for Green Bay, as they now have to contain the explosive rushing attack of Detroit without their defensive play-caller. Bettors eyeing Jahmyr Gibbs’ rushing props should feel confident with Franklin removed from the equation.

In the trenches, both sides monitor questionable starters. Green Bay could be without starting left guard Aaron Banks. Considering their rushing attack struggles to find consistency, losing a starting interior run-blocker further diminishes Josh Jacobs’ outlook. On the other side, Detroit center Cade Mays is questionable. Backup Juice Scruggs taking over shouldn’t derail the game plan, but it could lead to slightly less efficiency on interior rushing attempts.