YellaWood 500 Predictions, Best Bets & NASCAR Odds at Talladega
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- Two Talladega matchups have both models pointing the same way. We’d appreciate the cars following along.
- We’re backing comparable-track performance and favorable prices, with no race winner required.
- How to watch: Sunday, October 25, at 2 p.m. ET on NBC. Below, see our YellaWood 500 predictions, best bets and NASCAR odds at Talladega.
Talladega is a wonderful place to watch a race, provided you haven’t developed an emotional attachment to any of the cars.
Unfortunately, we’ve put money on several of them.
Sunday’s YellaWood 500 gives us another opportunity to study the numbers, compare the prices and discover how much of our afternoon depends on a driver we didn’t bet on making a reasonable decision.
We remain optimistic. About the bets, anyway. We’ve watched enough racing to keep our expectations for that other part fairly modest.
YellaWood 500 Predictions
We’ve found two matchups where my model and Steve’s projection agree, with comparable-track performance giving us more reasons to like the prices.
Neither ticket requires us to pick the race winner. We just need our driver to finish ahead of one specific person. It sounds so manageable when we put it that way.
YellaWood 500 Best Bets
Ryan Preece over Josh Berry (-114, BetRivers)
Preece starts 19th. Berry starts 21st. They should be able to wave to each other before the green flag, although we’d prefer they spend less time together once the race gets going.
Both models favor Preece. My projection has him at 14.05 and Berry at 22.80. Steve’s numbers are closer, with Preece at 18.18 and Berry at 21.26, but we get agreement on the driver we want.
Preece’s spring Talladega race gives us a good starting point. He finished 18th, which sounds fairly ordinary until we look at the rest of the afternoon. He led 21 laps and posted a 10.1 average running position. Berry finished 33rd with a 23.2 average running position.
We’d have preferred Preece to keep a few more of those positions at the finish. Still, he spent enough time near the front to give us something to work with.
Then he went to Daytona this summer and won. That helps, too. Occasionally, the strongest supporting evidence comes with a giant trophy.
Across my weighted comparable tracks, Preece’s average running position is 15.48, versus Berry’s 21.85. That’s a meaningful difference, and it supports the preference we see in both projections.
Berry finished ninth in both Daytona races this season, so he’s capable of spoiling this. We aren’t expecting him to pull over because we’ve written several paragraphs explaining why he should lose.
My matchup tool gives Preece an estimated 66.8% chance, compared with the 53.3% needed to break even at -114. We won’t pretend Talladega respects decimal places, but the model advantage, comparable-track performance and Steve’s agreement give us a case we like.
Preece can finish 16th and cash this ticket. We’re perfectly willing to celebrate something the broadcast barely mentions.
Chase Elliott over Brad Keselowski (-114, BetRivers)
Betting against Keselowski at Talladega feels like disagreeing with your mechanic. You’d like to believe you’ve done enough research, but there’s a reasonable chance he knows something you don’t.
We’re going with Elliott anyway.
My model projects Elliott at 12.59 and Keselowski at 19.55. Steve also prefers Elliott, although his gap is much smaller: 15.73 versus 16.68.
Elliott starts 18th, four positions ahead of Keselowski. That’s a little help, even if the running order will probably look completely different by the time somebody finishes explaining the starting lineup.
The broader performance numbers are more useful. Elliott’s weighted comparable-track average running position is 15.34, compared with Keselowski’s 19.29. Elliott spent a weighted 63.4% of those laps inside the top 15, versus 48.7% for Keselowski.
This season’s results offer support as well. Elliott finished fourth in both the Daytona 500 and the spring Talladega race. Keselowski finished fifth and 31st in those events.
Elliott also finished ahead in both Atlanta races, running 11th and 13th to Keselowski’s 17th and 26th. Keselowski got the better result at summer Daytona, finishing 14th while Elliott came home 23rd.
That gives Elliott the better finish in four of those five races. It’s a small sample, but it fits the direction of the running-position data and both models.
My matchup tool puts Elliott at approximately 63.6%, against a 53.3% break-even rate at -114.
Keselowski remains a very capable opponent. We just have more reasons to back Elliott at this price.
No victory speech required. Finish ahead of the No. 6, collect the ticket and let somebody else explain why the final restart needed a fourth lane.
NASCAR Odds at Talladega
Kalshi percentages reflect the market’s implied chance of each driver winning the YellaWood 500. These outright markets are separate from the BetRivers head-to-head picks above.
New to event contracts? Grab our Kalshi promo code before the green flag drops at Talladega. Both of our YellaWood 500 best bets are priced at BetRivers, but it always pays to shop around at the best online sportsbook in your state.
Follow SpeedwaySteve2 on JuiceReel for the complete betting card. Every wager is synced to the profile as it’s placed: https://www.juicereel.com/users/speedwaysteve2
Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
