Early NFL Props to Target for Week 10: McCaffrey, Smith-Njigba & More

• Christian McCaffrey carried 18 times in Week 9 and now draws a Dallas defense allowing five yards per rush
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba is up to 1,036 receiving yards through nine games, with one caveat worth watching in Seattle
• Read below for all three of my early NFL props for Week 10, plus the usage behind each one

Two of last week’s three projected lines would have hit. Puka Nacua caught 14 passes and Ashton Jeanty finished with 25 rushing yards, while Chase Brown stopped at three catches.

This week I’m looking at carries in Dallas, receiving yards in Las Vegas and catches in Cincinnati. The matchup I like best for a reception prop is one we’ve already seen: Ja’Marr Chase caught nine passes the first time the Bengals played Pittsburgh.

All three games are on Sunday, November 15. Here are the NFL props I’m targeting for Week 10.

NFL Week 10 Props to Target

These are my own estimated targets rather than posted sportsbook lines. Check the actual number and the price attached to it before betting any of them.

Have a few NFL betting apps open once these markets go live, since early numbers on the same player can sit a few yards apart from one book to the next.

NFL Week 10 Prop Pick: Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards

McCaffrey has 457 rushing yards on 102 carries through eight games, a 4.5-yard average. His workload has moved around all season, which is why a number in the mid-60s is where this market belongs.

He has topped 64.5 in four of those eight games. He finished with exactly 64 against Washington. One more yard would have put him over.

Week 9 gave him a season-high 18 carries, and he turned those into 68 yards. Kaelon Black actually led the 49ers with 70 rushing yards that day.

That split is why I’m not chasing a bigger number here. McCaffrey is getting a full workload again, but he is not the only back San Francisco is feeding, and he hasn’t posted a monster rushing total this year.

Dallas is what makes the mid-60s attractive. The Cowboys have allowed 1,327 rushing yards on 266 carries, an even 5.0 per attempt, and at that rate McCaffrey clears this with 13 or 14 runs.

San Francisco is in Dallas at 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday.

• Early Bet: Christian McCaffrey over 64.5 rushing yards (estimated target)

Early NFL Props: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards

Smith-Njigba has 71 catches for 1,036 yards through nine games. He has gone over 100 receiving yards in seven of those nine, including 150 against Kansas City and 118 against Chicago.

An 89.5 target sits well below that production. The Raiders have also allowed 183 catches for 2,238 receiving yards this season, with 27 of those gains going for 20 or more.

At 90 yards, Smith-Njigba could finish 28 yards shy of his Chicago total and still get there.

Seattle’s quarterback picture is the condition on this one. Drew Lock played in place of Sam Darnold in Week 9, and Smith-Njigba still saw 10 targets, turning them into seven catches for 51 yards.

I’m not predicting who starts in Las Vegas at 4:05 p.m. ET. Check the quarterback and Smith-Njigba’s own status before betting this target, because a change at either spot would move the number I’d want.

• Early Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 89.5 receiving yards (estimated target)

Week 10 NFL Prop Picks: Ja’Marr Chase Receptions

Chase is at 53 catches for 647 yards and seven touchdowns in eight games, roughly 6.6 receptions per game. This target asks him to land right at his season pace.

The last two weeks push me to the over. He caught 11 passes for 141 yards against Tennessee, then 10 for 155 against Atlanta.

He has reached seven catches in four of eight games, so the quiet weeks are real. The five-catch day at Baltimore is what this looks like when it goes wrong.

The first meeting with Pittsburgh is the better comparison. Chase caught nine passes for 98 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting there, and the Steelers have given up 183 catches for 1,936 yards this season.

Cincinnati hosts Pittsburgh at 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday night.

• Early Bet: Ja’Marr Chase over 6.5 receptions (estimated target)