Latest Super Bowl Odds on NFL Trade Deadline Day: NFL Futures Markets

• It’s NFL Trade Deadline Day as Super Bowl hopefuls jockey for position to make the biggest improvements and fill their holes for the second half of the season
• Some of the league’s top teams have been active in the trade market, with the Bears, Vikings, and Jaguars all making big moves to supplement their rosters
• Prediction markets are tracking all the moves, with the latest Super Bowl odds moving in accordance with all the Deadline Day action

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Super Bowl odds are always impacted by the NFL Trade Deadline, and this year is certainly no different. In the past, few teams dove in headfirst during the trade deadline. Now, however, the trade deadline is a point of deviation, with teams in the middle of a rebuild or acknowledging their situation, and contenders making big moves to vault over their rivals.

After the Minnesota Vikings’ disappointing Week 9 Monday Night Football showing against the Bills—which saw QB Carson Wentz record an unfathomable 8.9 passer rating (that’s not a typo)—the front office decided an upgrade was needed. Minnesota traded a third round pick to bring back QB Kirk Cousins from the Las Vegas Raiders, hoping to recapture the high-powered offense Cousins once led in Minnesota. The Vikings have one of the league’s top defensive units, and their latest trade suggests they don’t intend to waste it.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Indianapolis Colts traded away several stars, including Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner to NFC West rivals the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers, respectively. The Titans sent superstar Defensive Tackle Jeffery Simmons to the Chicago Bears, where he’s already had an enormous impact. The Jacksonville Jaguars made three big moves to boost their defense, most notably acquiring former Eagles DT Jordan Davis. In Baltimore, the Ravens acquired veteran QB Jacoby Brissett, making clear they’re not ready to let injuries to starter Lamar Jackson and backup Tyler Huntley torpedo their season.

These are just some of the stories that will come to the forefront at the deadline. Prediction markets will move with every announced deal, giving users the chance to trade on futures like Super Bowl odds.

Prediction Market Super Bowl Odds at Trade Deadline

Trading volume for this NFL futures market is beyond $238 million and rising in real time.

Currently, the Kalshi Super Bowl odds show the 49ers and Buffalo Bills as co-favorites (14)%. The Bears trail just behind at 13%, and the Jaguars at 11%.

The Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, and Denver Broncos are hovering just below 10%.

For those interested in trading on this market, the Kalshi promo code offers a great bonus for new users at sign up.

San Francisco 49ers

The 7-1 49ers, despite rampant injuries to key offensive components Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, and Deebo Samuel, are facing down every challenge and coming out on top with wins over the Los Angeles Rams, Denver Broncos, and Seattle Seahawks. They lead the pack in Super Bowl odds and have just boosted their receiving corps by acquiring veteran 6X Pro Bowler Keenan Allen from the Colts for a sixth-round pick.

Their remaining schedule is moderately tough with the final two being against teams that are unlikely to be playing all out as the season winds down with a home meeting against the Eagles, and visiting Arizona to play the Cardinals. As mentioned earlier, they already bolstered their defense with Buckner. They are in the driver’s seat to win the NFC West.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan has been to two Super Bowls and knows how to prepare his team for the playoffs and overcome injuries. QB Brock Purdy is playing lights out. They are a good bet to emerge and are showing aggression in going for it. Their market probability is in the mid-teens.

Buffalo Bills

Eventually, Josh Allen needs to break through and make it to the Super Bowl. He has everything a star QB “should” have with the beautiful Hollywood actress wife Hailee Steinfeld and a new baby; the endorsements where he’s seemingly on every other commercial during games; the MVP; and acknowledgment as one of the top 3 players at the position in the NFL.

Every year, they’re favored to make it across the finish line and end Buffalo’s suffering and desperation to finally raise the Lombardi Trophy. Every year they fall short. With the AFC wide open and a clear path to get a top seed in the AFC in front of them, they have no more excuses. Buffalo (7-1) should probably not be judged solely on their MNF performance when they embarrassed Wentz and the Vikings, but with the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins on the slate in the next two weeks, they will almost certainly welcome the Chiefs to Buffalo in Week 12 with a 9-1 record.

The Bills boosted their defense at the deadline, acquiring safety Amani Hooker from the Tennessee Titans for a second-round pick. Hooker is tied for the NFL lead in Interceptions (5) and will bring a veteran presence to Buffalo’s secondary.

The Bills’ market probability trails only the ‘Niners, as they look like a true contender this season.

Chicago Bears

In just two games as a Bear, Jeffery Simmons is reminiscent of the Bears’ purest identity as a ravaging, ravenous defense, hearkening back to the Monsters of the Midway with Dick Butkus, Buddy Ryan’s “46” scheme, Mike Singletary, Brian Urlacher, and Richard Dent. He’s been everywhere and done everything, taking an already-good defense to the next level, bordering on elite.

On offense, QB Caleb Williams is coming off a rough outing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, throwing 4 interceptions. On the bright side, however, he overcame that and brought the team into field goal range to win on a last-second kick.

Chicago is 7-2 in perhaps the toughest division in the league, the rough NFL North. The Detroit Lions and Vikings are 6-2; the Green Bay Packers are 6-3. The Bears have lost to both the Vikings and Packers. To win the division, they need to win the rematches and split with the Lions. Their schedule is tough apart from games against the New Orleans Saints and Dolphins. In addition to their divisional matchups, they face the Bills and Jaguars.

If they don’t win the division, they’ll need to go on the road and through the gauntlet with the Los Angeles Rams, Seahawks, 49ers, and their own divisional foes possibly on the horizon.

This is tough, and unless they somehow get home field throughout the NFC bracket, they’re probably going to get popped before reaching the NFC Championship Game. They sit in the low teens in prediction markets for Super Bowl odds, presumably due to these factors.