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2025-26 CFP Odds: Ohio State, Penn State Lead Playoff Race
Updated:
- Odds to make the College Football Playoff in 2025-2026 are available for all contenders
- Ohio State (-325), Penn State (-300), and Georgia (-285) lead the way as heavy favorites
- See the projected 12-team bracket and College Football Playoff odds for all teams
The 2025-26 college football season continues the expanded 12-team playoff format, giving more programs than ever a shot at the national championship. From the Week 0 kickoff in late August, it’s just over three months until the final CFP field is set.
We’ll be tracking the odds for college football teams to make and miss the playoffs throughout the year. Our regularly updated graphs provide a clear visual representation of how each team’s chances fluctuate throughout the season.
The final playoff field will be revealed on Sunday, December 7th at 12:00 PM ET. With the new format taking the five highest-ranked conference champions plus seven at-large bids, the race for those final spots should be intense right through Selection Sunday.
Odds to Make College Football Playoff
The preseason CFP odds show clear tiers forming among contenders. The heavy favorites include Ohio State (-325), Penn State (-300), and Georgia (-285). That translates to about a 76% chance for the Buckeyes, 75% for the Nittany Lions, and 74% for the Bulldogs to make the playoff.
The next tier features Oregon (-275), Notre Dame (-200), and Clemson (-200). After that, things get interesting with teams like LSU (+110) essentially a coin flip to make the field. Here’s how the top contenders stack up:
Projected 12-Team College Football Playoff Field
Based on early projections from ESPN and other analysts, here’s how the 12-team playoff field could shape up for the 2025-26 season:
Remember, the format now gives the four highest-ranked teams the top seeds and first-round byes. This change came after all four top seeds lost in the quarterfinals last year.
Dark Horse Contenders
Several teams sit just outside the favorites but have legitimate paths to the playoff:
See the full odds to make the CFP from BetMGM Sportsbook in the table below.
- Aug. 17: Preseason odds show Ohio State, Penn State, and Georgia as the heaviest favorites to make the playoff field
- July 22: Texas opens as co-favorite with Ohio State to win the national championship at +550, but their odds to make the playoff (-185) suggest some vulnerability
- June 3: ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson just 47% odds to make the playoff despite top-5 preseason ranking
College Football Playoff Odds – All Teams
With 32 teams having at least a 10% chance to make the playoff according to ESPN Analytics, the expanded format has created more drama than ever. The battle for those seven at-large spots will be fierce, especially among SEC and Big Ten teams.
Texas missing the playoff at +220 odds has drawn betting interest. Despite being co-favorites to win it all, their brutal road schedule (at Ohio State, at Georgia) makes them vulnerable to missing the field entirely.
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Odds as of August 17th, 2025, at BetMGM Sportsbook.
CFP Qualification History
*Ohio State won the 2024-25 National Championship
The expanded playoff format immediately changed the landscape. Seven teams made their CFP debuts in the first year of the 12-team format: Arizona State, Boise State, Indiana, Penn State, SMU, Tennessee, and Oregon (second appearance). With 32 teams having realistic playoff hopes in 2025, expect more first-time participants this season.
Ohio State’s championship victory gave them their second title in the CFP era. The Buckeyes will try to become the first repeat champions since Alabama (2017-18) in the four-team playoff era.
Archived CFP Odds:
Brady Trettenero
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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