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10 Wild Super Bowl ATS & Over/Under Trends You Need to Know

Updated March 5th, 2021
Published February 10, 2020

NFL betting trends can be tricky. Let’s say you wanted to bet on the Chiefs to win Super Bowl 55 but the Buccaneers to cover the spread …

STOP!

Do not make any Super Bowl bets until you have seen these 10 against-the-spread and game-total Super Bowl trends.

1) Just Pick the Winner

Only six teams have won the Super Bowl but failed to cover the spread:

  • Steelers in Super Bowls 43 & 10 (-7 in both)
  • Patriots in Super Bowls 38 & 39 (-7 in both)
  • Cowboys in Super Bowl 30 (- 13.5)
  • 49ers in Super Bowl 23 (-7).

The two pushes came in Super Bowl 34 (Rams over Titans) and Super Bowl 31 (Packers over Patriots).

The Chiefs added to this trend in 2020, winning Super Bowl 54 and covering the 1.5-point spread.

So the general sentiment here is that if you like the favorite to win, bet them against the spread. If you like the underdog, don’t worry about taking the points; bet them on the moneyline.

2) Underdogs Are Barking

Underdogs have been live in the last 19 Super Bowls, pulling off upsets in a whopping 13 of them. The six favorites to cover the spread in the last 19 Super Bowls include:

  • Chiefs in Super Bowl 54
  • Patriots in Super Bowl 53
  • Patriots in Super Bowl 51
  • Packers in Super Bowl 45
  • Colts in Super Bowl 41
  • Steelers in Super Bowl 40

The Chiefs managed to cover as the favorite last year against the 49ers and will look to do so again this year against the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay actually added to this trend back in Super Bowl 37, when they beat the then-Oakland Raiders as 4-point underdogs. The Bucs face a similar spread in Super Bowl 55, getting 3-3.5 points, depending where you look.

3) AFC West Goes Over

The last two Super Bowls featuring an AFC West team went UNDER. The Chiefs and 49ers only fell a couple points shy of their 53.5 total in Super Bowl 54 (52 points scored), while the Broncos and Panthers only combined for 34 points – the total was 43.5 – in Super Bowl 50.

You have to go all the way back to 1984, though, to find the next one, as Super Bowls featuring the AFC West reeled off eight straight OVERS. None of those teams were the Chiefs, however. They’ll get another chance at an over this year against the Bucs, but the line is higher than last year, sitting between 56 and 57, depending on your sportsbook.

4) The AFC Shines on CBS

The last seven Super Bowls broadcast by CBS include:

Super Bowls Broadcast by CBS

Super Bowl Matchup Spread Final Score ATS Winner
Super Bowl 53 New England vs Los Angeles Rams NE -2.5 NE 13-3 NE (AFC)
Super Bowl 50 Carolina vs Denver CAR -4.5 DEN 24-10 DEN (AFC)
Super Bowl 47 Baltimore vs San Francisco SF -4.5 BAL 34-31 BAL (AFC)
Super Bowl 44 New Orleans vs Indianapolis IND -5 NO 31-17 NO (NFC)
Super Bowl 41 Indianapolis vs Chicago IND -7 IND 29-17 IND (AFC)
Super Bowl 38 Carolina vs New England NE -7 NE 32-29 CAR (NFC)
Super Bowl 35 Baltimore vs New York Giants BAL -3 BAL 34-7 BAL (AFC)

The AFC has covered the spread in each of the last three, as well as five of the last seven. Super Bowl 55 will also be broadcast by CBS.

5) Small Spread = Lots of Points

With two teams that are believed to be so evenly matched, it makes sense that lots of points would be scored. Both coaches are throwing the kitchen sink at each other on offense, knowing they’ll need all the points they can get.

The nine Super Bowls that had spreads equal to or less than three points were:

Recent Super Bowls with Spreads of 3 or Less

Super Bowl Matchup Spread Total Points Scored O/U Result
Super Bowl 54 Kansas City vs San Francisco KC -1.5 53.5 52 UNDER
Super Bowl 53 New England vs Los Angeles NE -2.5 55.5 16 UNDER
Super Bowl 51 New England vs Atlanta NE -3 57.5 62 OVER
Super Bowl 49 New England vs Seattle SEA -1 47.5 52 OVER
Super Bowl 48 Seattle vs Denver DEN -2 47.5 51 OVER
Super Bowl 46 New York Giants vs New England NE -2.5 53 38 UNDER
Super Bowl 45 Pittsburgh vs Green Bay GB -3 45 56 OVER
Super Bowl 35 Baltimore vs New York Giants BAL -3 33 41 OVER
Super Bowl 22 Washington vs Denver DEN -3 47 52 OVER

As you can see, the over has hit in six of them. Last year’s Super Bowl went against this trend, though, as did Super Bowl 53.

The spread in Super Bowl 55 can currently be found at three, with some books listing it at 3.5.

6) Points Aren’t Scored on CBS

Looking to the last five Super Bowls broadcast on CBS, Super Bowl 47 between Baltimore and San Francisco is the only one to go over its total.

Super Bowl 55’s total is hovering between 56 and 57 points, which would be the highest since Super Bowl 51’s total of 57.5.

7) AFC Favorite = Low-Scoring

Super Bowls 54, 53, 52, 51, 48, 46, 44, 43, 42, 41, 40, and 39 account for the last 12 times the AFC has served as the favorite. The game total only went OVER in 52, 51, 48, and 43.

The AFC (Kansas City Chiefs) is again favored in Super Bowl 55. It’s the franchise’s second time serving as the favorite in a Super Bowl, as they were also favored last year.

8) Underdogs Cover When Men Take the Stage

The last seven Super Bowls to feature a male-led halftime show were: 53 (Maroon 5), 52 (Justin Timberlake), 50 (Coldplay), 48 (Bruno Mars), 44 (The Who), 43 (Bruce Springsteen), and 42 (Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers).

The only one of those Super Bowls that saw the favorite cover was the most recent, Super Bowl 53, when the Patriots beat the Rams 13-3, covering as 2.5-point favorites.

Super Bowl 55 will have another male-led halftime show, as The Weeknd is set to headline.

9) Male Halftime Shows = Low Scoring Games

We touched on the last seven Super Bowls with a male-led halftime show above, but here are the four prior to those: 41 (Prince), 40 (The Rolling Stones), 39 (Paul McCartney), and 36 (U2).

The only three Super Bowls in that list to go over their respective totals were 52 (Eagles vs Patriots), 48 (Seahawks vs Broncos), and 43 (Steelers vs Cardinals). All the rest went under.

10) Underdogs Show Up in Repeat Attempts

The Kansas City Chiefs are looking to repeat as Super Bowl champions when they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, February 7. If successful, they’d be the first repeat champions since the 2003-2004 Tom brady-led New England Patriots.

But when reigning champions make it back to the big game, the underdog tends to cover the spread. Here’s a look at the last five Super Bowls where a team had a chance to repeat as champions:

  • Super Bowl 52 (Eagles vs Patriots) – The Eagles upset the Patriots as 4.5-point underdogs
  • Super Bowl 49 (Patriots vs Seahawks) – the Patriots upset the Seahawks as 1-point underdogs
  • Super Bowl 39 (Patriots vs Eagles) – New England did repeat as Super Bowl champions, but the Eagles covered as 7-point underdogs
  • Super Bowl 33 (Broncos vs Falcons) – Denver is the only favorite to cover in the last five Super Bowls where a team is trying to repeat, as they easily covered as 7.5-point favorites
  • Super Bowl 32 (Packers vs Broncos) – Green Bay was upset by the Broncos as 11-point favorites

With the spread hovering around 3-3.5, there is opportunity for KC to win the game and not cover the spread. But that would go against our first trend on this page.

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