How to Bet NFL Over/Under: Strategy for Betting Totals On Football

The over/under wager is one of the most polarizing types of bets in the world of NFL football betting. While most sports betting enthusiasts prefer to take the over (who doesn’t love high-scoring games?), there are times where a defensive battle between two stalwart teams calls for an under wager.

Handicapping NFL over/under bets is a reliable way to become a successful sports bettor. Whether you’re a rookie or a seasoned sharp, finding opportunities to hit NFL total bets is a profitable and exciting method to wager throughout the regular season, playoffs, and Super Bowl.

Get closer to all the action on the gridiron with this comprehensive guide on NFL over/under bets.

NFL Over/Under Betting Sections:

• What Are NFL Over/Under Bets?
• How to Bet NFL Over/Under Lines
• NFL Over/Under Betting Strategy
• NFL Over/Under Wagers & Prop Betting
• NFL Over/Under Betting FAQs

What Are NFL Over/Under Bets?

First things first, let’s sort out exactly what NFL over/under bets are. Also referred to as “totals,” this wagering type sets a value on how many combined points will be scored between two NFL teams in a single game. Then, it’s up to you to decide if the final score of the game combines to be higher (over) or lower (under) than that total value.

For example, a game between the Buffalo Bills (AFC) and Arizona Cardinals (NFC) could have an over/under line set at 56.5 total points. In this case, the “over” line might have -106 odds, and the “under” line would be slightly favorited at -114 odds.

If the final score is 33-27 in favor of either team, and you took the over, then you’d win your bet as the combined total score of 60 is obviously higher than 56.5. A $25 wager on -106 odds in the example above would win you $23.50 for a final payout of $48.50.

For a more detailed breakdown on over/under bets, check out our totals betting guide.

How to Bet NFL Over/Under Lines

Betting on NFL over/under action is not only simple and exciting, but it also happens to be one of the most reliable ways to pad your bankroll on the American betting market.

As described in the previous example, sportsbooks will set a line on the total number of combined points in a game, and then you simply decide whether the final score of both teams will be over or under that overall figure. The odds and potential payouts will vary greatly, but otherwise this wager works the same way every time.

Most sports bettors prefer to wager on the over in hopes they’ll see a high scoring game, but that doesn’t mean you need to go this way every time. There’s nothing wrong with diving into team statistics and other variables to handicap this wagering type, but if you’re looking for pure excitement, then stick with betting the over.

NFL Over/Under Betting Strategy

Wagering on the over might be far more popular in NFL totals betting, but there are a couple of ways to get more strategic if you’re not a fan of taking a shot in the dark. Here’s a couple tips on strategizing your NFL over/under bets.

Line Shopping

One of the most important aspects of over/under betting is line shopping for the best NFL odds.

Sports bettors love to take the over, and as such, the public typically causes a lot of line movement. As more fans start betting the over, bookmakers adjust the line to increase the total number of points on an over/under wager.

NFL Week 18 over/under line movement:

KC-DEN 43.5 to 44.5
DAL-PHI 41.5 to 42.5
CIN-CLE 44 to 38
GB-DET 43.5 to 44.5
WAS-NYG 38.5 to 37.5
NYJ-BUF 45.5 to 41.5
TB-CAR 42.5 to 41.5
LAC-LV 48.5 to 49.5

— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 6, 2022

If you’re looking to bet the over, it’s better to get your wagers set earlier in the week before the public starts forcing significant line movement. On the other hand, if you’re favoring the under in a game, you might want to wait closer to kickoff to fill out your bet slip. Choose an NFL betting app in your region for the best football promos.

NFL Betting Trends

Looking at NFL betting trends is another effective method when deciding whether to wager on the over or the under.

While the public has a habit of blindly wagering on the over, there are other variables that can cause a noticeable change in the betting trends. Factors like indoor/outdoor & home/away splits, weather conditions, and power rankings/standings can influence many sports bettors into wagering one way or the other.

Follow Injury and Weather Reports

Let’s say you’re betting on football game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, but both Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are injured. That fact will very likely have a significant impact on the offensive nature of the game as Mahomes and Kelce are such important point-producers for the Chiefs. In that case, you might want to err on the side of caution and look for opportunities to take the under depending on what the total points line is set at.

Additionally, keeping an eye on weather reports or watching active weather in cities that have unstable fall and winter seasons is also another good thing to note. If an unexpected snowstorm or windstorm hits an outdoor stadium at a game between, say the Detroit Lions and New York Jets, both those teams are also going to have a harder time getting any meaningful offense off.

NFL Over/Under Wagers & Prop Betting

The final score isn’t the only time you’ll see over/under betting lines involved in NFL betting. NFL player prop bets also have over/under lines involved on a few different statistics.

There are three main types of NFL player prop bets that will set a total value for you to wager on:

• Passing props – total passing yards, total passing touchdowns, and total completions
• Receiving props – total receiving yards, total number of receptions, longest reception
• Rushing props – total rush attempts, total rushing yards, combination of rushing + receiving yards

In any of the examples above, the player prop bet will be attached with an over/under value, and it’s up to you to decide if an individual goes above or below that value in a game or over the duration of the entire NFL season.

For instance, a player like Joe Burrow might have three passing props assigned with three different over/under values – total completions (24.5 (Over -115 | Under -115), total passing yards (279.5 (Over -110 | Under -125), and total passing TDs (1.5 (Over -180 | Under +135). Consider correlating some of these props with a moneyline wager as part of an NFL same-game parlay.

You can also make over/under wagers on the total number of wins an NFL team has throughout the season. Head on over to our NFL win total odds page for a preview on how this could all play out.

There are number of great promo codes you can claim from top betting sites to start wagering on the NFL over/under. The DraftKings promo code gets you an excellent welcome offer for new users. The bet365 bonus code is also a fantastic option with their welcome offer and, if you’re looking to wager a little more, don’t sleep on the BetMGM promo code that lands you their first bet offer.

NFL Over/Under Betting FAQ

Still don’t totally understand NFL over/under bets? Maybe these quick answers to FAQs will make things clear: