Win Your March Madness Bets Using Final Four Trends
- The Final Four has seen some pretty strong trends emerge, including the ten detailed below.
- Just how difficult is to win your first championship?
- What’s a bigger impediment to winning a March Madness title, a bad offense or a bad defense?
The Final Four is the crux of any good bracket. Whether you’re setting up your perfect, gonna-win-it-all dream sheet or just betting the March Madness Final Four, there are some trends to look out for. Some are weird, some are wonderful, and we’ve put them all together here for your convenience.
1. Twenty of the last 21 NCAA champs have come from the Eastern time zone.
This is just a weird one. There’s something to be said for the travel schedule favoring teams furthest east, and also for UNC, Duke, Kentucky, Villanova, and Connecticut all being in the same time zone. It’s not a huge diversity of teams that are winning the national title.
2. (Don’t) throw the rankings out.
A big sports media thing is that, “it’s the Final Four, so anything can happen.” Where we’re going you don’t need tournament seeds, bucko. There’s also the idea that those rankings are only within the four regions, so once you reach the Final Four those rankings are meaningless. If they’re not comparing the teams in relation to one another, they don’t matter.
Except they do matter, inasmuch as they correlate with success. Eighteen of the 44 teams to make the Final Four in an 11-year period (2008-2018) were #1 seeds, and 12 of them made the championship game. Eight of those won the title. That’s well above what you’d expect from chance.
Even though seeds and rankings don’t strictly apply to the Final Four, they still correlate with success.
Eleven of the teams were #5 or lower, and just four of them made championship games. Only one (2014 UConn, which was #7 in the East), won the title. Five were #8 or lower, of which just two progressed and none won it all.
It’s not a big enough sample size to draw any iron-clad conclusions, but don’t go thinking that, past a certain point, tournament seeds stop mattering. Higher-ranked teams win at a higher rate than you’d expect from chance, even if those rankings aren’t strictly relevant.
3. The #1 seeds beat the spread, slightly.
From 2005 to 2017, #1 seeds making the Final Four went 20-16 against the spread, a slightly profitable trend that’s picked up a bit in the past few years.
4. The favorites have been on a tear in the semi-final.
In the last three years, just one underdog (2015 Wisconsin) has won a semi-final game.
5. But the underdogs have been punching above their weight in the final.
There’s a reason UNC winning in 2017 had an air of order being restored to the universe. They’d famously suffered heartbreak against Villanova in 2016; Wisconsin had suffered even worse heartbreak as the slight favorite in 2015; and Kentucky lost to UConn in 2014. Louisville obviously won as the slight favorite in 2013, but this trend came back around to take that win away, too.
6. Winners win, champions cover.
This is an old saw that turns out to be surprisingly accurate. We’ve assembled 11 years of Final Four results (from the 2008 tournament to the 2018 tournament) with each team’s ATS record for that season. Before you get mad: you’ll notice that we’ve let Louisville’s championship stand, because our bookie sure did.
(Championship teams are in bold. Runners-up are in italics.)
From this we can see a few things: the vast majority of Final Four teams have a winning record against the spread. Just 10 of the 44 teams listed here finished the year with an ATS record below 50%, three of which came in 2010. Of those, two won championships, for a winning percentage of 25%, or what you’d expect for a playoff of four evenly matched teams.
Eleven teams in this group finished with ATS records over 60%. Of those 11, seven won champions, two more were finalists, and only two missed the championship game. That’s more than you’d expect with chance, a lot more.
7. Winning the first one is tough.
Since 2000, ten teams have made the championship game and had the opportunity to win their first championship. Of those, just three have been successful. Of those, 2003 Syracuse was on its third try, 2006 Florida was on its second, and only 2002 Maryland was able to win on its first try.
8. First-time coaches cover.
From 2005 to 2018, 14 coaches reached their first Final Four. Their teams went 8-6 straight up, which is impressive considering the circumstances, and 8-5-1 against the spread, which is deeply impressive any way you look at it.
9. Good offenses win championships.
In the KenPom era (since 2002), 11 national champions have ranked in the top three in offensive efficiency, nationally. Only three have ranked outside the top ten, and only one has fallen outside the top 20 (UConn, 2014).
[Since 2002] ten national champions have ranked in the top three in offensive efficiency.
Last year, we flagged Virginia and Cincinnati as high seeds that ranked well outside the top 20. The Bearcats lost in the second round, and we think you remember what happened to Virginia.
— SI College Hoops (@si_ncaabb) November 27, 2018
10. Bad defenses lose championships.
As important as a great offense is, a respectable defense may be even more crucial. Since 2002, no team has won the national championship with a defense that ranked lower than 18th in the nation in efficiency (2009 Tar Heels).
Increase Your Winning Percentage Today!
Unfortunately, there’s a lot more to making money betting on March Madness than just final four trends. If you really want to beat the odds and pick a winner on your bracket, we’ve closely examined 7 perennial attributes of March Madness winners.
If you’re feeling competent and up to speed with your March Madness betting knowledge, check out the rest of our strategy guides.