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UCL Betting: The Best Fourth-Fixture Picks

Zack Garrison

by Zack Garrison in News

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

The third set of fixtures in this UCL season featured few surprises – and I called them all correctly! (No big deal.)

The best teams looked the part, with Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Bayern combining to outscore their opponents 13-2. The surprising part? Man City was one of those opponents (4-0 loss to Barcelona).

The Citizens will get a chance to redeem themselves in the fourth set of fixtures, which features rematches from Week 3.

Should we expect different results as the teams meet again in new locations? Let’s take a look at the best matches and how to play them.


UCL 2016 Picks: Fourth Fixture (Nov. 1 and 2)

Barcelona (140) at Manchester City (220), Draw (270)

Barca (3-0-0, 9 points) just crushed City (1-1-1, 4 points) 4-0 in Spain to take control of Group C. City will look for revenge when they host the Catalans in the next fixture (Nov. 1, 2:45 PM Eastern, at Etihad Stadium). But now isn’t the time City wants to be seeing Barca again. The Citizens just lost their perfect EPL record by falling to Tottenham (2-0 away) and drawing Everton (1-1 home). They’re now level with Arsenal at the top of the table.

Barca, on the other hand, are rolling thanks to Lio Messi being in top form. He had a hat-trick against City and also potted in the team’s last La Liga match (4-0 over Deportivo). They’re still fourth in their domestic table, but just two points back of the league leaders (Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid).

City have been very good so far under new manager Pep Guardiola, but Barcelona are a more cohesive unit and have more talent. I see them picking up a point in London, sewing up Group C in the process.

Pick: Draw. 


Leicester City (275) at FC Copenhagen (125), Draw (240)

Leicester (3-0-0, 9 points) are not having the storybook season they did last year in the EPL. They sit 13th in the table with just eight points through eight matches and a brutal -6 goal difference. But the UCL has been their saving grace: the Foxes are perfect through three matches and have yet to concede a goal. Why the disparity? Quality of competition is certainly part of it. They got a great draw with Copenhagen, Porto, and Club Brugge in their quartet.

Copenhagen (1-1-1, 4 points) are locked in a battle for the all-important second spot in Group G. They’re knotted with Porto through three fixtures, but lead on goal-difference (+3 versus 0).

Leicester earned the full three points with a 1-0 win over Copenhagen on Oct. 18. Riyad Mahrez scored the lone goal of the match, his third of the UCL season. With the next match (Nov. 2, 2:45 PM Eastern at Parken Stadium) in Denmark, I don’t see the goal-starved Foxes keeping their perfect record intact. But I also don’t see them losing to a far less talented team, not with all their hopes now pinned on the UCL.

Pick: Draw


Bayer Leverkusen (335) at Tottenham (110), Draw (260)

Tottenham (1-1-1, 4 points) and Bayer (0-3-0, 3 points) reside in the tightest group (Group E) in this year’s competition. They sit second and third, respectively, but first-place Monaco (5 points) and last-place Moscow (2 points) are only separated by a mere three points. Their next match (Nov. 2, 2:45 PM Eastern at White Hart Lane) will go a long way in determining who advances to the knockout stage and who heads to the Europa League (or heads home).

Tottenham and Bayer played to a 0-0 draw last time out in Germany. That followed a 1-1 draw with West Brom in the Totties last EPL match. But the team had won five straight (all competitions) before that, which has helped them draw level with City at the top of the Premier League.

Bayer are not having a good year in the Bundesliga, sitting at 3-1-3 through seven fixtures and sporting just a +2 goal difference. They don’t have the same skill as Tottenham, especially up front. I see Harry Kane and company coming out with a strong effort, knowing how crucial this match will be to their hopes of advancement. It’s not a big payout, but the home side still looks like the best value.

Pick: Tottenham. 


Photo credit: Lluís from Sabadell (Barcelona) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.

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