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Canelo Withdraws from GGG Rematch – Odds on What’s Next

Don Aguero

by Don Aguero in Boxing

Updated Apr 4, 2018 · 8:52 AM PDT

Gennady Golovkin, 35, doesn't have time to wait around for Canelo
Gennady Golovkin, 35, doesn't have time to wait around for Canelo. Photo by Post of Kazakhstan (Wikimedia) [CC License].
  • Golovkin vs Alvarez 2 is OFF — Canelo withdraws
  • Canelo’s fate lies in the hands of the Nevada State Athletic Commission (NSAC), how will they rule?
  • Golovkin is still committed to fighting on May 5th; who will replace Canelo?

Our worst fears have been confirmed.

Canelo Alvarez has withdrawn from his Cinco de Mayo rematch against Gennady Golovkin following a positive drug test (well, technically two positive tests). The Nevada State Athletic Commission (NSAC) has temporarily suspended the Mexican boxer and will determine his fate on April 10th, just over two weeks before the scheduled bout. Staring down a nine to 24-month ban, Golden Boy Promotions had no choice but to cancel the fight.

This isn’t a particularly surprising development. Tickets were already being refunded and promotion for the fight had ground to a halt. Golden Boy are aiming to reschedule for August or September, but they’ll have to wait until the hearing before making their next move.

Some believe Canelo, many don’t, and most just want to see a rematch whatever the verdict.

The two-division champion maintains his innocence, claiming that the positive results for Clenbuterol came from eating contaminated Mexican beef. While it’s true that Clenbuterol is sometimes (illegally) mixed into livestock feed, the “contaminated meat” excuse has already been done to death. Seriously guys, come up with some fresh material. Some believe Canelo, many don’t, and most just want to see a rematch whatever the verdict.

Is Canelo’s reputation tarnished forever? How will NSAC rule? Will Golovkin find a new opponent for May 5th? And will the rematch ever actually happen? Let’s study the numbers.

 Golovkin vs Alvarez 2 Odds

Prop Odds
Odds the rematch occurs in 2018 3/1

There are a few factors to consider here. How long will Canelo be suspended (if at all)? Will Team Canelo and Golden Boy be ready to reschedule for another date, or are they committed to a Cinco de Mayo fight? And will the aging Golovkin stand by and allow Canelo to waste even more of his time?

As far as money goes, this is the best fight available to Golovkin. And in terms of legacy, this is the fight that could immortalize him. As for Canelo, he’s in need of redemption now more than ever. If he doesn’t take a fight against Golovkin as soon as possible, fan fights will leave him in droves.

Who Will Golovkin Fight on May 5th?

Fighter Odds
Billy Joe Saunders 4/1
Gary “Spike” O’Sullivan 6/1
Danny Jacobs 10/1
Gilberto Ramirez 20/1
Jermall Charlo 20/1
Canelo Alvarez 50/1
Connor McGregor 100/1

 

Forget Canelo and unify the middleweight division!

That’s what many have suggested in the wake of Alvarez’ failed drug tests. It’s been over ten years since middleweight has had an undisputed king, and Billy Joe Saunders holds the last remaining strap in the division. Saunders caught our attention with a technical masterclass against David Lemieux last year, so this could actually be a PPV hit. The English traveler has an upcoming fight against fellow countryman Martin Murray, but he’ll be happy to place that bout on the back-burner for a shot at Golovkin.

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Danny Jacobs troubled Golovkin when the two faced in March of last year. The fight went to decision, making Jacobs the first boxer in nine years to do the distance against Golovkin. The Kazakhstani won by a comfortable margin (115-112, 115-112, and 114-113), but Jacobs put up a valiant fight. This a match-up fight fans wouldn’t mind seeing a second time.

Super middleweight champ Gilberto Ramirez and the undefeated up-and-coming Jermall Charlo are two interesting options for Golovkin. Just a few days shy of 36, the middleweight champ is in the sunset years of his boxing career. It would be interesting to see him go toe-to-toe with the best of the new generation.

Ransacked By Nevada State Athletic Commission

Props Odds
Odds NSAC does not penalize Alvarez at all  3/1
Over/Under on length of suspension issued by NSAC  11.5 months

Here’s a black box many have tried and failed to understand. Sports regulators are a lot like boxing judges: their decisions don’t always make sense. Perhaps they’ll find the “contaminated meat” defense plausible and let Canelo off scot-free. Perhaps they’ll issue the full 24-month suspension. Who the hell knows?!

From the way Golden Boy brought the event to a screeching halt and withdrew their fighter, it seems Oscar de la Hoya is expecting — or at least prepared for — the worst.

Is This The End For Alvarez?

PROP ODDS
Odds Canelo Alvarez announces his retirement in 2018 25/1

Alvarez was already skating on thin ice. First, he ducked Golovkin for several years, even vacating a title in order to avoid the dangerous fight. Then, when the two fighters finally met, the result was a controversial split draw decision, with one scorecard awarding Canelo a ridiculously lopsided victory. On top of all that, he doesn’t embody “Mexican style” boxing, which has already made it tough for some home-grown fans to throw their full support behind him.

With his reputation already tarnished, the failed drug tests could be the final straw for fight fans. Regardless of how NSAC decides, the positive results will forever be a blemish on his legacy.

I don’t expect him to hang up the gloves, though. It’s easy to forget that Canelo is only 27 years old. He’s still got so many years ahead of him, and he remains one of the biggest pay-per-view stars in the game. Even if he receives the maximum ban, he’ll still return to the sport as a young man in his physical prime.

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