North Carolina vs Pittsburgh Odds, Player Props & Predictions (Jan 28)

• The Pitt Panthers host the UNC Tar Heels on Tuesday night
• Pitt has lost back-to-back home games after starting the year 9-0 at Petersen Events Center
• See the North Carolina vs Pittsburgh odds, predictions, and player props for Jan 28

ACC rivals North Carolina (13-8, 3-3 away, 7-13-1 ATS) and Pittsburgh (13-6, 9-2 home, 9-10 ATS) meet on Tuesday night at Petersen Events Center at 9:00 pm ET. Despite losing their last two home games, the Panthers are a 4.5-point home favorite over the Tar Heels in today’s college basketball odds.

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh Odds

On the moneyline, the Panthers are a -195 favorite with the Tar Heels coming back at +162 in the UNC vs Pitt odds. The game total is sitting at 154.0 with -110 odds both ways.

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North Carolina is just 9-12 O/U this season, but the Panthers have been one of the better over bets in the country, going 10-7-2 so far.

UNC Not Meeting Expectations

The Tar Heels, who started the season #9 in the AP Poll and 15th at KenPom, have dropped out of the rankings and all the way to 38th at KenPom.

After a pedestrian 4-4 start, it looked like Hubert Davis’ group had turned a corner by going 8-2 in their next ten, including a 5-1 start in conference play. But last week, a four-game win streak was brought to a crashing halt with back-to-back losses to 72nd-rated Stanford (72-71 home) and 73rd-rated Wake Forest (67-66 away).

Last time out, they barely squeaked past 211th-rated Boston College, 102-96 OT, in Chapel Hill as massive 19.5-point home favorites. The narrow win was their third straight ATS loss and fourth in the past five games.

RJ Davis, who started the season among the favorites in the Wooden Award odds, isn’t dominating the way he was supposed to in his senior season. After averaging 21.2 PPG on 42.8% shooting (including 39.8% from three), Davis is scoring just 17.7 PPG on 39.3% from the field this year.

His three-point percentage has dropped precipitously to 29.5%. He’s averaging exactly two makes on seven attempts per game, despite being a career 37.2% shooter from deep over his first four seasons in Chapel Hill.

Panthers Competitive in Stacked ACC

Pitt finished a solid fourth in the ACC last season, going 22-11 overall and 12-8 in conference play. The loss of leading scorers Blake Hinson (18.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Bub Carrington (13.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG) was a big blow, but returnees Ishmael Leggett (16.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.8 APG) and Jaland Lowe (17.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) have them contending on a nightly basis.

Pitt started the season on a solid 12-2 run, including wins over 48th-rated West Virginia (88-62 home), #28 Ohio State (91-90 away), and #67 LSU (74-63 neutral). Their only losses in that span came against #15 Wisconsin (81-75 neutral) and #23 Mississippi State (90-57 away).

But they hit a snag early in ACC play, dropping four in a row from Jan. 7 to Jan. 18. After getting obliterated 76-47 at #3 Duke, Pitt lost its first home game this season to #25 Louisville (82-78). Further setbacks to #69 Florida State (82-70) and #27 Clemson (78-75) put the Panthers into a near-tailspin.

But Jeff Capel’s team stopped the bleeding last time out with a 77-73 win at Syracuse.

UNC vs PITT Player Props

UNC vs PITT player props from FanDuel on Jan. 28. See SBD’s list of the top US betting sites.

Three players from each team are listed in Tuesday’s UNC/Pitt player props. Pitt’s Lowe has the highest point total at 19.5, three more than anyone else on the board. Davis leads the Tar Heels at just 16.5, roughly a point lower than his season average.

UNC vs Pitt Predictions

The Tar Heels are better than what they’ve showed so far this season. The talent is there, it’s just a matter of players like Davis playing to their potential. Chances are, at some point this season, the fifth-year senior is going to remember how to shoot the three and progress towards his mean.

While it’s always easier to get hot at home, the Panthers don’t have a strong defense. They sit just 72nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at KenPom and have allowed 73 or more points in five straight games, averaging 78.2 PPG against in that span.

Coupled with the cracks Pittsburgh showed at home in their last two games at Petersen Events Center, I like the value on the more-talented Tar Heels pulling off a road upset tonight.

Picks:

• UNC moneyline (+162)
• Davis over 16.5 points (-120)