TCU vs Texas Odds and Picks (Mar. 10)
By Chris Amberley in College Basketball
Published:
- The TCU vs Texas odds favor the Longhorns by 5.5-points on Thursday (March 10) at 12:30pm ET
- The winner of this game will advance to the Big 12 Tournament semifinal
- Read below for the TCU vs Texas odds, analysis, and betting prediction
The Big 12 Tournament continues on Thursday (March 10th) with quarterfinal play. First up is 5th seed TCU vs 4th seed Texas, in the third meeting between these two programs this season.
Texas took the opening meeting by 23 points, and earned a 9 point victory in the rematch. Oddsmakers expect the Longhorns to be victorious once again, although by a smaller margin.
TCU vs Texas Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU Horned Frogs | OFF | +5.5 (-110) | O 125.5 (-110) |
| Texas Longhorns | OFF | -5.5 (-110) | U 125.5 (-110) |
Odds as of March 9th at BetMGM.
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Texas is currently a 5.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 125.5. Tip-off is set for just after 12:30pm ET at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO, with ESPN2 providing the broadcast coverage.
The latest March Madness bracket projection lists Texas as a #4 seed while TCU is down on the #10 line. The Horned Frogs would certainly like to boost their resume this week and a win on Thursday would be a huge start.
Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis
Both teams earned a bye into the quarterfinal and have had a full five days to prepare. The Longhorns begin their conference tournament journey as a +550 underdog to cut down the nets, but regardless of what happens this week, they’re a lock to be in the NCAA Tournament next week.
The 2022 @Phillips66Gas #Big12MBB 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 𝐁𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐭 🤩
📰 https://t.co/wJg9CYhEeg pic.twitter.com/loaMeN4dyK
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) March 6, 2022
They grade out 15th per KenPom’s overall efficiency metric, and 16th per the NCAA NET rankings. They posted four wins this season over ranked competition, including victories over Kansas and Tennessee who are both in the running to be a 1-seed at March Madness.
They closed the regular season with a losses to Baylor and at the Jayhawks, but were 8-3 in the prior 11 games before those contests.
🚫🚫🚫 pic.twitter.com/Pg8lVWbHlu
— Texas Men’s Basketball (@TexasMBB) March 5, 2022
Texas ranks fourth in the Big 12 in offensive rating, fifth in field goal percentage, and seventh in three-point efficiency. Defense is their calling card though, but strong statistics at that end of the floor haven’t prevented a good amount of their games from surpassing the total – more on that later.
The Longhorns lead the conference in scoring defense, and allow a league-low 5.3 three-pointers pre outing. They’re holding enemy shooters to 41.2% from the field, while they’re +9.2 average point differential is a top-27 mark in all of college hoops.
Currently, Texas is among the top-20 in the odds to win March Madness. That said, the Longhorns are a +7000 longshot to win it all. Their Final Four odds are a more optimistic +1650.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Analysis
The Horned Frogs meanwhile, split their final four regular season games, posting victories over both Kansas and Texas Tech, two top-14 programs.
𝙁𝙪𝙣𝙠𝙮 𝙁𝙞𝙡𝙢𝙨 vs. Kansas#GoFrogs pic.twitter.com/Z4JkpwvgVQ
— TCU Men's Basketball (@TCUBasketball) March 3, 2022
Throw in two addition wins over ranked teams during the campaign, plus a ranking of 42nd overall per KenPom, and TCU is likely to be dancing next week no matter what happens versus the Longhorns. They enter the tournament with +2000 odds to bring home the trophy.
The Horned Frogs don’t excel specifically on either offense or defense, ranking ninth in points per game and fifth in scoring defense. They shoot the second lowest percentage in the Big 12 from three, while also forcing the conference’s second fewest turnovers.
It’s Championship Week. #GoFrogs | #Big12MBB pic.twitter.com/tdG2tMgKxh
— TCU Men's Basketball (@TCUBasketball) March 9, 2022
They are however, the best rebounding team in the conference, a skill which affords them plenty of second chance opportunities to make up for their underwhelming field goal percentage.
Texas vs TCU Pick
Despite both teams struggling on offense this season, the over has been a key trend for both programs. 11 of the Longhorns’ 18 conference games soared over the total, including both versus the Horned Frogs. Their last meeting exceeded the number by 14.5 points, while seven of Texas’ last eight contests have cleared 125 points.
gettin warm, stayin loose 🤘#HookEm pic.twitter.com/QeZjDtzApo
— Texas Men’s Basketball (@TexasMBB) March 10, 2022
Not to be outdone, TCU has been an over darling for bettors this season. Nine of their final 13 games exceeded the total, while 13 of their past 14 contests have surpassed 125 points.
The Horned Frogs have also been red-hot against the spread and I like that trend to continue versus the Longhorns. TCU has covered is five of its past seven outings, and is 10-4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
Picks: TCU Horned Frogs +5.5 (-110), Over 125.5 (-110)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
