Early Player Props to Target for Week 5 College Football
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- I’m diving deep into the Week 5 college football slate looking for early player prop value
- Three QB’s jump off the page in the Passing TD market
- Keep reading for my early player props to target in Week 5 college football, below
Week 5 brings another test for some of college football’s most intriguing quarterbacks. Alabama heads to Mississippi State, Virginia Tech hosts Pittsburgh, and Michigan travels to Minnesota looking to bounce back from a one-point loss.
I am looking at passing touchdowns this week, where a productive afternoon does not always translate into a winning ticket. A quarterback can pile up yards and still watch his running backs finish the drives.
Below are my three early college football player props targets for Week 5. Before making any bet this weekend, compare prices across College Football betting apps to find the best lines.
Early Week 5 CFB Player Props to Target
Early targets as of September 28. Use the bet365 bonus code to lock in these lines today.
Week 5 CFB Player Prop: Keelon Russell Passing Touchdowns
- Early target: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-138 at bet365)
Keelon Russell is my favorite starting point after throwing four touchdown passes in Alabama’s 49-18 win over South Carolina. He completed 21 of 27 attempts for 365 yards, so this was more than a quarterback benefiting from a couple of short scoring drives.
Ryan Coleman-Williams caught two of those scores, while Lotzeir Brooks and Josh Ford supplied the others. That distribution matters to me. Alabama can create scoring chances through more than one receiver, making it harder for an opponent to erase the entire passing threat by focusing on a single matchup.
Mississippi State’s offense gives this game a chance to stay competitive enough for the National Championship odds contender to keep throwing. The risk is that the Tide finish possessions on the ground. Russell himself rushed for a touchdown against South Carolina, and Daniel Hill also scored. Neither helps a passing-touchdown over.
I am interested at 1.5, where two touchdown throws do the job. A move to 2.5 would require a different assessment, even after last week’s performance. I would also compare the college football odds for the full game before buying into another shootout.
Week 5 CFB Player Prop: Ethan Grunkemeyer Passing Touchdowns
- Early target: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-138 at bet365)
Ethan Grunkemeyer offers a potential rebound angle, but his latest game is the reason I would be selective. He threw for just 147 yards in Virginia Tech’s 21-14 victory at Boston College, while Jeffrey Overton Jr. ran for 209 yards. The Hokies showed they can win without leaning on their quarterback.
Ethan Grunkemeyer’s Recent Passing Stats
The two 300-yard performances before Boston College show why I am keeping him on the list. Against Pittsburgh, my case for the over rests on a competitive game that requires Virginia Tech to sustain its passing attack rather than repeatedly handing off with a comfortable lead.
That is a matchup projection, not a claim that passing yards automatically become touchdowns. Two scoring throws would clear this target, but another run-heavy afternoon could leave it short. I would pass if the line rises or the price becomes too steep.
Week 5 CFB Player Prop: Bryce Underwood Passing Touchdowns
- Early target: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-245 at bet365)
Bryce Underwood is the under on my watchlist, and there is a clear argument against it. He threw for 276 yards and two touchdowns in Michigan’s 20-19 loss to Iowa, with both scoring passes going to JJ Buchanan. Michigan produced 429 total yards, so I am not treating that defeat as proof the offense cannot move the ball.
My angle is a different game in Minneapolis: fewer scoring possessions and a greater role for Michigan’s rushing attack near the goal line. The Wolverines can play well without Underwood throwing multiple touchdowns. That is the distinction behind this target.
Still, last week’s passing production makes this the most price-sensitive of my three ideas. I want a 1.5 threshold, and I would reassess if the matchup points toward a more aggressive passing approach.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.