Notre Dame vs Navy Prediction, Odds & H2H History (Saturday, Oct. 26)

• We’ve made our Notre Dame vs Navy prediction for Saturday’s game at MetLife Stadium
• The latest odds have the Fighting Irish as 13.5-point favorites over the Midshipmen
• Read below for Notre Dame vs Navy prediction, picks and H2H trends

The iconic Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the surging Navy Midshipmen are set to clash in Week 9 college football on Saturday October 26, 2024. Kickoff is noon ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

This neutral site is more than just a battle for the Rip Miller Trophy – it’s a game with massive College Football Playoff implications. The 12th-ranked Fighting Irish can’t afford to slip up if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive, while the 24th-ranked Midshipmen are looking to prove they belong among the nation’s elite.

The betting market has been all over this one, with the line moving in Navy’s favor from +17 to +13.5 and the total dropping from 51.5 to 50.5.

Notre Dame vs Navy Prediction

On paper, Notre Dame appears to be the superior team, riding a five-game winning streak during which they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 30 points per game. Their defense has been stifling, allowing just 10.8 points per contest during that stretch. However, Navy’s unique offense, masterminded by coordinator Drew Cronic, presents a challenge the Irish haven’t faced this season.

QB Blake Horvath has been a revelation for the Midshipmen, accounting for 20 total touchdowns (10 passing, 10 rushing) while averaging an impressive 12.3 yards per attempt through the air. Navy’s ability to control the clock with its ground game and strike with explosive plays when needed could be the key to covering the 13.5-point spread.

90-YARD QB TOUCHDOWN RUN!

Blake Horvath has 416 total yards, 6 TD@NavyFB pic.twitter.com/28kQIFHhMm

— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) September 21, 2024

I’m backing Navy +13.5 in this one. The Midshipmen have been undervalued all season, and their modern triple-option offense will keep Notre Dame’s defense off-balance. Navy’s 12-4-1 ATS record as a double-digit underdog since 2021 is hard to ignore, and I believe they’ll add another cover to that impressive stat.

I’m also playing the under 50.5 points. Both teams will lean heavily on their running games, which should lead to long, clock-churning drives and fewer possessions overall. Navy’s defense, while not elite, has shown improvement and should be able to limit Notre Dame’s explosive plays.

• Prediction 1: Navy +13.5 (-115)
• Prediction 2: Under 50.5 points (-105)

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Notre Dame vs Navy Odds

Odds as of October 26th at BetMGM Sportsbook. Check out BetMGM Review or browse other top sports betting sites.

Notre Dame is a substantial favorite, listed at -500 on the moneyline with an implied win probability of around 83%. Navy, at +375, offers significant value for bettors willing to back the underdog straight up, though I’m not quite ready to predict the outright upset.

The line move from Notre Dame -17 to -13.5 suggests that sharp bettors are heavily leaning towards the Midshipmen to cover, and I agree with that assessment.

The total, which has dropped from 51.5 to 50.5, indicates that the market expects a lower-scoring game than initially anticipated. With both teams likely to prioritize their ground attacks, the under feels like the smart play.

Notre Dame vs Navy Head to Head

Notre Dame has historically dominated this rivalry, holding an 80-13-1 all-time advantage. However, Navy has kept things competitive in recent years, covering the spread in four of the last six meetings.

Navy’s success as a double-digit underdog, combined with its improved offense and Notre Dame’s vulnerability to big plays, makes the 13.5-point spread an appealing option for bettors looking to back the Midshipmen.

While I expect Notre Dame to win this game, I believe Navy will keep it closer than the spread suggests. The Midshipmen’s ability to control the clock and limit possessions will be crucial in this matchup, and their explosive playmaking potential could lead to a few game-changing moments.

Take Navy +13.5 and the under 50.5 in what should be a classic college football showdown between two iconic programs.