USC 2023 Season Preview, Win Total & Over/Under Prediction

• USC’s 2023 win total sits at 10, with the juice shaded slightly to the under
• The Trojans went 11-1 in the regular season in 2022, but were blown out in the Pac-12 Title Game
• Keep reading for USC’s 2023 season preview, plus win total predictions

It took one season for Lincoln Riley to turn USC back into a premier team in the Pac-12. In year number two, the expectations are significantly higher.

The Trojans are ranked inside the top-seven in nearly all preseason polls, and are the favorites to win a loaded Pac-12. Just four teams have shorter odds to make the College Football Playoff, while SP+ projects USC will be the nation’s top offense.

USC Trojans 2023 Win Total Odds

That’s led online sportsbooks to set a line of 10 victories for the Trojans in the college football win total odds. USC won 11 games in Riley’s first season, but fell short to Utah in the conference championship game, and were shocked by Tulane in the Cotton Bowl.

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Riley and Williams Will Fuel Trojans Success

In Riley’s first season at USC, the Trojans were the country’s number one offense. They averaged 41.4 points and 506.8 yards per game, as QB Caleb Williams ran away with the Heisman Trophy.

His 4,537 passing yards and 42 touchdowns had NFL teams drooling over the thought of taking him number one next year, but first he’s back to take the Trojans attack to the next level.

Caleb Williams is reportedly thought to be a guy teams will “tank” in December for according to several NFL scouts.

One NFL GM reportedly believes Williams already “is” Patrick Mahomes.

Aaron Murray (former NFL QB) said he believes Williams is already a “better prospect” than… pic.twitter.com/vrkJomuQkF

— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) July 7, 2023

Yes, his number one target Jordan Addison left for the NFL, but USC poached Arizona’s top receiver Dorian Singer and South Carolina’s leading rusher MarShawn Lloyd. They’ll pair them with a solid cast of returnees and a few blue chip freshmen and the offense will be just as explosive as 2022, if not more.

Offense has always been Riley’s calling card as a coach and the numbers show it. In six years as a head coach, his teams have an average offensive ranking of 2.5 per SP+. It’s the defense that should have Trojan backers concerned.

USC Needs to Plug a Leaky Defense

As good as Riley’s offenses have been, his defenses have prevented his teams from capturing a title. They’ve had an average SP+ ranking of 67.7, never exceeding 63rd.

Last season, in the five most important games the defense was abysmal. The Trojans allowed 42, 45, 27, 47, and 46 points, en route to losing three of those outings. Riley teams are 46-1 all-time when they surrender less than 30 points, but just 10-8 when the yield 40+.

College Football Game of the Day!

Cotton Bowl: #16 Tulane Green Wave vs. #10 USC Trojans (2023)

– The Trojans gave up a 15-point lead with under five minutes to play
– Tulane RB Tyjae Spears rushed for 205 yards and 4 TDs
– The Teams combined for 1,133 yards of offense and 91… pic.twitter.com/cHuY1g7asx

— College Football Alerts  (@CFBAlerts_) July 4, 2023

USC did exhaust the transfer portal searching for defensive help, and will return 14 of the 19 players from 2022 that saw at least 200 snaps. Newcomers Bear Alexanders (Georgia), Anthony Lucas (Texas A&M) and Mason Cobb (Oklahoma State) should contribute immediately, but it’s still the same coach calling the shots.

Alex Grinch has a long history of coaching Riley defenses, but has produced only one unit that’s allowed less than 20 points per game, and that was in the shortened COVID season.

USC 2023 Win Total Prediction

With a 12-game regular season schedule on deck, USC can only afford to slip up once if they’re going to cash the over on their win total. They’ll face five teams that project to be top-30 opponents this season, with three of those games coming at home.

Their highest-ranked opponent in the preseason polls is Notre Dame, and we already have an idea of the spread in that contest thanks to the early college football betting lines. USC is currently a 1.5-point road favorite in that matchup, meaning there’s a chance, albeit a small one, that they’re favored in all 12 of their games.

At Oregon, the preseason number 13, is their next toughest road test, with home dates scheduled versus Utah, UCLA and Washington. Any one of those five opponents is live to beat the Trojans, but their other seven opponents aren’t expected to put up much of a fight.

USC Trojans Five Toughest Opponents of 2023

Five legit tests, however, is a lot to overcome, especially when you consider the timing. Each of those five contests occur over the final seven weeks of the season. That’s a ridiculously challenging stretch run, and one that almost no team would be favored to sweep.

SP+ projects no Pac-12 team has a greater than 6% chance of going 12-0, while USC and Oregon are the only two programs with a greater than 10% chance of reaching 11-1.

The Trojans official SP+ projection is 9.7 victories, and leaning under on their win total seems prudent. Of all the dominant programs over the past decade, few (if any) have had the defensive concerns that USC does.

Nothing about Riley’s coaching resume or his defensive personnel suggests this is the year that unit takes a major step forward.

The Trojans offense has a chance to be historically good, unfortunately, it will take excellence on both sides of the ball to hit the 11-win mark in an uber-talented Pac-12 this season.

Pick: USC Under 10.5 Wins (-120)