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Updated Game of Thrones Odds After Episode 3: Jon Snow Now the Clear Favorite to Rule Westeros

Jon Snow
Jon Snow is favored to rule Westerns by the end of Season 8. Still from HBO's Game of Thrones.
  • Game of Thrones‘ epic Battle of Winterfell has reached its conclusion
  • With just three episodes to go, Jon Snow is currently the favorite to ultimately lead Westeros
  • Get up-to-date with all of our Game of Thrones Season 8 odds

The Battle of Winterfell came and went in Episode 3 of Game of Thrones‘ eighth season. And surprisingly, there were no major deaths.

All of your favorites survived their encounter with the Night King, although their army is significantly weaker for their looming bout with Cersei Lannister.

We’ll kick this week off with the odds on Cersei’s eventual replacement.

Who Will Rule Westeros at the End of Game of Thrones?

Who Will Rule Westeros? Odds at Bovada
Jon Snow +135
Bran Stark +450
Daenerys Targaryen +550
Sansa Stark +650
Gendry +750
Tyrion Lannister +850
Jon & Daenerys’ baby +1200
Arya Stark +1400
Cersei Lannister +2500
Petyr Baelish +2500
Samwell Tarly +2500
Jaime Lannister +5000

*All odds taken 04/29/19

Jon’s run at the top of this list has reached its third week. And just like last week, we don’t buy it.

Yes he’s the rightful ruler, fit to sit on the Iron Throne. But he’s not a King. He’s a fighter. Even if he didn’t do a lot of that Sunday Night.

Arya’s heroics against the Night King have seen her shoot up the rankings. And the unborn and potentially non-existent Snow/Targaryen baby? Has gone from +2500 since Episode 1, to the sixth-best odds.

If you still aren’t taking our advice, can we sell you on Sansa Stark? She has gotten colder and colder towards Dany since she entered her life, and could take the throne in an effort to free the North.

If you don’t think that Gendry is actually a bastard, his price hasn’t changed following Episode 3.

When Will Cersei Lannister Die?

When Will Cersei Lannister Perish? Odds at Bovada
Does Not Perish +400
Episode 3 or 4 +550
Episode 5 or 6 -600

There are three options here for Cersei and we still don’t think she makes it out alive.

And after changing our tune last week, we stand by seeing Episodes 5 or 6 as the most likely for this to happen.

As you can see, the attention has turned to Cersei and Kings Landing now that the Night King is done and dusted.

Judging from the preview, Episode 4 looks like a lot of “tacking stock” and a bit of celebrating. Jon and Daenerys need to figure out where their numbers stand, and revel a bit in the Night King’s defeat. If they make it to Cersei’s doorstep, it’ll be at the end of Episode 4.

The Pick: Episode 5 or 6 (-600)

 

Who Will Kill Cersei Lannister?

When Will Cersei Lannister Perish? Odds at Bovada
Arya Stark +150
Jaime Lannister +150
Cersei Lannister (Suicide) +500
Does Not Perish +600
Tyrion Lannister +700

So we think Cersei’s going down, but who’s going to do the deed?

Despite her being a co-favorite, we still aren’t looking Arya’s way. We’ve dug deep on Maggy the Frog’s prophecy already, and we’re standing by Jaime. He made it through the Battle of Winterfell, so he’s still in line to knock off his baby momma (gross).

Tyrion is looking like a good bet too at +700. His flourishing relationship with Sansa (we’ll get to that), gives him even more reason to want to end Cersei’s life. What better present for his former bride, than the end of a woman who has done nothing but torment her?

The Pick: Jaime Lannister (+150) or Tyrion Lannister (+700) 

Will Tyrion Ride a Dragon?

Will Tyrion Ride a Dragon? Odds at Bovada
Yes +200
No -300

This one hasn’t changed since opening, and neither has our opinion.

Two things have strengthened our “No” stance as well. For one, there are now just two dragons left. True, Viserion wasn’t much of an option, but he definitely isn’t one now.

And the other? Tyrion seems to be (secretly) aligning himself with Sansa. While things are shifting on a more intimate level, what if Sansa’s relationship with Dany doesn’t heal? If the Mother of Dragons sees Tyrion aligning himself with the elder Stark girl, she could strip him of his duties.

No Daenerys means no dragon for the Lannister.

The Pick: No (-300)

Game of Thrones Head-to-Head Survival Odds

Character Odds Character Odds
Varys -110 Bronn -130
Tormund Giantsbane -155 Brienne of Tarth +115
Gilly -300 Hot Pie +200
The Mountain -250 The Hound +170
Jaime Lannister -150 Tyrion Lannister +110
Jon Snow -155 Bran Stark +115
Arya Stark -150 Sansa Stark +110
Cersei Lannister -250 Daenerys Targaryen +170

Getting Brienne of Tarth at +115 seems like a pretty good deal. Everyone had written her off as a casualty in the Battle of Winterfell after getting knighted. But she made it. So she can survive the last three episodes, right?

Well, if Sansa becomes a focal point over these last three episodes, there’s a very real likelihood that Brienne sacrifices herself for her.

Tormund is tied closely to Jon, whose greatest peril was the Night King. Now that he’s gone? Tormund can continue to go on about milking giants.

When it comes to The Mountain and the Hound? We think both are going down. But we agree with the odds saying  Gregor goes before Sandor.

Who Will Win CleganeBowl?

Who Wins CleganeBowl? Odds at Bovada
Sandor ‘The Hound’ Clegane -230
Gregor ‘The Mountain’ Clegane +200
Both Die or Are Destroyed +225

Carrying over from above, we think think both go, but Sandor gets the last word. He’s earned that after his rough ride at the Battle of Winterfell.

The Pick: Both Die or Are Destroyed (+225)

Game of Thrones Survival Odds

Which Lannister Will Die First? Odds at Bovada
Jaime EVEN
Cersei +120
Tyrion +300

If you think Cersei isn’t making it out alive, this is the prop for you. This takes into account Maggy’s prophecy, pitting her head-to-head with both of her younger brothers.

Now that Jaime makes it out of Winterfell, he seems to be in the clear. There doesn’t seem to be a path that takes him back to Cersei AND erases their falling out. So there are two options here. He kills her, or she kills him.

As we discussed above, we still think Jaime is the favorite to finish off Cersei. That would mean he outlives her.

The plans for Tyrion are a little murkier, so we thinks this comes down to the twins.

The Pick: Cersei dies first (+120)

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