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Updated Game of Thrones Odds After Episode 1: Odds Jaime Kills Cersei & More

Game of Thrones
Season 8 of Game of Thrones has audiences riveted. Photo by HBO.
  • Season 8 of Game of Thrones debuted on Sunday evening
  • With just five episodes to go, some of our best Game of Thrones props are moving
  • Keep up-to-date with everything going on in Westeros

Episode 1 of Game of Thrones’ eighth season is in the books.

And while for those of you in death pools you may be disappointed that nobody died, plenty still happened.

We have the evolving feud between Daenerys Targaryen and Sansa Stark, and Sam’s revelation to Jon Snow about his lineage. Then there’s the weird body-part pinwheel left at the wall by the Night King.

And the super-awkward note things ended on between Jaime Lannister and Bran Stark.

With one episode down and five to go, some of Game of Thrones’ most popular betting props have been updated. Let’s review the changes.

What Episode Will Cersei Lannister Die?

When Will Cersei Lannister Perish? Odds at Bovada
Episode 5 or 6 -500
Episode 3 or 4 +400
Does Not Perish +550
Episode 1 or 2 +5000

*Odds taken 04/15/2019

An early-season death has been all-but ruled out at +5000.

When we first discussed the possibility, we liked Episodes 3 and 4. Things haven’t changed, as Episodes 5 and 6 offer no value.

The Pick: Episode 3 or 4 (+400)

Who Will Kill Cersei Lannister?

When Will Cersei Lannister Perish? Odds at Bovada
Jaime Lannister +140
Arya Stark +150
Does Not Perish +550
Tyrion Lannister +600

Don’t like those four? Don’t worry, there’s plenty of options over at Bovada.

Before the season, we went with Jaime Lannister. Going in-depth on Maggy the Frog’s prophecy, he makes the most sense.

We still see this as a fitting end for Game of Thrones’ most cringe-worthy couple.

The Pick: Jaime Lannister (+140)

Game of Thrones Survival Odds

Who Survives Season 8? Odds to Survive Odds to Die
Jon Snow -125 -105
Daenerys Targaryen EVEN -130
Bronn +125 -155
Tyrion Lannister EVEN -130
Night King +250 -400

MyBookie carried the original odds, while Bovada has added a handful of characters to track for five episodes.

Ahead of the season, Jon Snow was listed at +100 to die. As things have transpired, Jon’s status is murky. He seems to have the support of the Starks, but not many others in the North.

Could a double-cross be on the way?

The two with plus odds are the most interesting. Many pegged Bronn as surviving, as he has that long-standing goal of riding off into the sunset. But now he’s been sent after Cersei’s brothers.

The odds he survives that? They aren’t high. He may get one of them, but this may be a one-way trip.

As for the Night King, he’s worth it if you think he makes it to the end.

What Will Bran Warg into Next?

What Will Bran Warg into Next? Odds at Bovada
Raven +125
Dragon +300
Human +300
Wolf +300
Other +400

Bran didn’t do any Warging in Episode 1. He did, however, provide excellent comedic relief.

Before, Raven and Wolf were both +200. Now Raven is +125.

Neither of the Direwolves were seen in Episode 1. Unless you think Ghost became Daenerys’ coat.

But with the value dwindling on Raven, what if we go off the board? What if Bran Warg’s into Jaime Lannister in Episode 2?

While it’s unlikely, he would be able to travel back to the moment Cersei pulled her support from the North. Or, even if it’s odd, the moment Jaime pushed him from the tower. We still think Raven is most likely, but human is our dark horse.

The Pick: Raven (+125) or Human (+300)

Game of Thrones Head-to-Head Survival Odds

Character Odds Character Odds
Varys -130 Bronn EVEN
Tormund Giantsbane -340 Brienne of Tarth +220
Gilly -400 Hot Pie +250
Euron Greyjoy -125 Theon Greyjoy -105
The Mountain -480 The Hound +290
Melisandre -500 Davos Seaworth +300
Jaime Lannister -400 Tyrion Lannister +250
Jon Snow -250 Bran Stark +170
Arya Stark -165 Sansa Stark +125
Cersei Lannister -270 Daenerys Targaryen +180

While the first episode didn’t do much for results, it solidified some character’s standings in these odds.

Even though we didn’t see Brienne of Tarth (+220), we’d take her over Tormund. The battle is coming to Winterfell and Tormund has to make the trek from the wall. We can see Brienne sacrificing herself to save Sansa.

The Red Witch seems like someone who will come back late in the season, once all the fighting is done.

The other one to take is Davos Seasworth over Melisandre. The Red Witch seems like someone who will come back late in the season, once all the fighting is done. Her fate seems to be linked, in part, to Varys’ and Davos’ proximity to the action  will have him in danger.

Who Will Rule Westeros?

Who Will Rule Westeros? Odds at Bovada
Jon Snow +225
Bran Stark +275
Sansa Stark +500
Daenerys Targaryen +550
Gendry +650
Petyr Baelish +1250
Night King +1500
Tyrion Lannister +1500
Arya Stark +2000
Samwell Tarly +2000
Cersei Lannister +2500
Jon and Dany’s Baby +2500

Don’t like any of the names? Head over to Bovada, where they list nearly the entire Game of Thrones roster.

First of all, we aren’t sure why Petyr Baelish showed up here. Granted there is a theory gaining steam that Baelish faked his own death, but his odds are better than the Night King’s.

Further suggesting that Littlefinger is aware of the Faceless Men is his smirk when he hears Arya say to Brienne that “no one” trained her with a sword. It seems that, as usual, Littlefinger knows more than he is letting on.

That’s some serious money coming in on a man kept alive by fan theories.

Will Jon Snow Win the Game of Thrones?

Jon’s odds got slightly worse following the first episode. There was really nothing to impact them either way, as we already knew what Sam told him.

What might have contributed to the slight dip, is his reluctance to believe Sam. Jon has never been concerned with power. His willingness to abdicate his Northern crown in search of support against the Night King shows that.

Whether or not he’s the rightful heir, he doesn’t seem to care.

Daenerys’ odds fell fairly significantly, although if she survives, they may have gotten better. At least when he first heard the news, Jon still considered her his Queen. The biggest tell on her odds will be how Jon handles things the next few episodes.

If they can’t agree on who assumes the throne, however, maybe the default answer is their child.

We don’t even know if Dany is pregnant (or if she will be), but if they keep visiting that waterfall it could definitely happen. Keep in mind the odds say “at the end of Season 8”. There’s no telling whether or not there will be a time jump, so it’s a worthwhile guess.

And, if you’re into that dark, catastrophic future? The Night King is still there to make you money.

The Picks: Jon Snow (+225), Night King (+1500), Jon and Dany’s Baby (+2500)

Will Arya Wear Little Finger’s Face?

Will Arya Wear Little Finger’s Face Odds at Bovada
Yes +200
No -300

This is an interesting one, and we can see both sides. On one hand, why would it be necessary? With the attention of Westeros turned towards the Night King, Lord Baelish would’ve had little to do with that whether he was alive or dead.

On the other, how many people know that he’s dead? If Arya is intent to continue crossing names off her list, eventually wearing Little Finger’s face could get her close to Cersei.

While we don’t think he’ll sit on the Iron Throne, this isn’t the last we’ve seen of Little Finger.

The Pick: Yes (+200)

Will Gendry Be Confirmed as Cersei’s Son?

Will Gendry be Confirmed as Cersei’s Son? Odds at Bovada
Yes +450
No -850

The Gendry theory is interesting, and would add another layer to the battle for the Iron Throne.

Could Cersei have actually banished an infant Gendry, out of disdain for carrying Robert Baratheon’s child? It’s certainly possible.

I lost my first boy. A little black-haired beauty. – Cersei Lannister

This is something people have ignored with all the attention paid to Jon, Daenerys and the Night King.

Personally, we’re all for it, and all the signs seem to be there. There’s too much intrigue around Gendry for it not to mean anything.

The Pick: Yes (+450)

Will Tyrion Be Proven to Have a Secret Plot with Cersei?

Does Tyrion Have a Secret Plot with Cersei? Odds at Bovada
Yes +150
No -200

When it comes to theories, this one seems to be a reach.

Yes, Cersei seems to account for everything, always having something on the go. And yes, Tyrion has a sly nature about him, and always has a contingency plan. They also enjoyed a private chat before Cersei “agreed” to aid the North in battle.

But these aren’t siblings that have to overcome a simple disagreement. Cersei has hated Tyrion his entire life, holding him responsible for their mother’s death.

It would be a big character deviation, and a stunner, for these two to come together.

The Pick: No (-200)

Will Tyrion Ride a Dragon?

Will Tyrion Ride a Dragon? Odds at Bovada
Yes +200
No -300

This is something that created a bit of a stir in Episode 1. Many fans were a bit put-off by how willing Daenerys was to let Jon ride Rhaegal. If their relationship is going to continue to flourish though, it looks like Jon will get more chances.

Things don’t look so rosy for Tyrion, however.

If there were still three dragons, we’d say yes. But at this point, whether Viserion is a wight or an Ice Dragon, the humans only have two.

Unless he saddles up alongside Dany, he won’t get too many opportunities.

The Pick: No (-300)


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