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Over/Under Number of People Arya Stark Kills in Season 8 Set at 3.5; Odds Say Cersei is First

Arya Stark
Arya Stark is making a list and checking it twice. Photo by HBO.
  • Arya Stark is seeking to complete her list by the end of Season 8 of Games of Thrones
  • Many big names still remain unchecked
  • How many lives will Arya take, and who will be the first?

Arya Stark has rhymed off her list every night before drifting off to sleep. Dreaming of revenge. Now she has to complete that list.

As we’ve seen, Arya won’t necessarily be the end for all of these names. She’ll cross them off, but she won’t necessarily watch their final breaths.

Who Will Arya Stark Cross Off Her List First?

Who Will Arya Kill First From Her List in Sesason 8? Odds
Cersei +175
Melisandre +300
The Hound +325
Ilyn Payne +400
Beric Dondarrion +500
The Mountain +1000

*Odds taken 04/08/2019

Arya’s list is shorter now. We also have prophecies to consider within Season 8. And with the expected bloodbath, she may not even get to all of the names herself.

Cersei, Melisandre Won’t be Arya’s First Victims

Ayra is on the list of many who could potentially kill Cersei. Whether it’s Cersei’s little brother, someone else’s brother, or Arya wearing their faces, the list of murders is long. But it won’t be Arya.

Ayra is on the list of many who could potentially kill Cersei.

Assuming it’s a Lannister, having Arya pose as Jaime or Tyrion while wearing their face removes the impact. Also, if either are going to get dusted, it’s happening after Cersei’s gone. So Arya couldn’t wear their faces.

For Melisandre, there’s an excellent chance she meets her end at the hands of Arya. It’ll just happen later. Consider this chilling exchange the Red Priestess had with Arya earlier in the show:

She also told Varys that she has to return to the country to die.

Neither Clegane Makes Sense as Number One

Whether Arya takes down The Hound or The Mountain, they won’t be her first victim either.

We know #CleganeBowl is going down. A theory has emerged from that which makes a lot of sense.

From Esquire: “The Hound defeats his brother but is mortally wounded in the process. The Hound lets Arya kill him to stop his suffering, thus also allowing her to cross his name off her list.”

We’re all for it happening that way, but it’s not an early-season write-off.

Expect Ilyn Payne to Be Arya’s First Victim

Cross off Beric Dondarrion, as he still has a role to play in the fight with the White Walkers.

That leaves Mr. Payne as her first victim.

If Arya is sneaking into King’s Landing on her revenge tour, he’s likely the easiest target to get to. He’s also the least integral to the plot of the final season than any of the other characters.

He’s the first to go, and pays alright at +400.

Pick: Ilyn Payne (+400)

How Many People Will Arya Kill in Season 8?

How Many People Will Arya Kill in Season 8? Odds
Over 3.5 -115
Under 3.5 -115

This is an interesting number. And one that isn’t directly list-related.

As we sort through her potential progress, we’ll get a good idea how close she’ll get.

Status of Arya Stark’s List

Victim Dead or Alive?
The Hound Alive
Meryn Trant Dead
Cersei Lannister Alive
Joffrey Baratheon Dead
Ilyn Payne Alive
Polliver Dead
The Mountain Alive
Rorge Dead
Walder Frey Dead
Tywin Lannister Dead
Melisandre Alive
Beric Dondarrion Alive
Thoros of Myr Dead

Arya Stark’s Final Death Total

The odds are even, but take the over.

This one isn’t specifically limited to her list.

Taking the remaining names on her list, let’s assume Arya kills Melisandre and Ilyn Payne. She’s at two, so it’s tough to bet against Arya knocking off some nameless extras in the process. Add The Mountain, and you only need one more.

It’s not a killing spree, but Arya’s going to make some serious headway on that list in Season 8.

Pick: Over 3.5 (-115)

Our Other Game of Thrones Season 8 Coverage:

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