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Updated Game of Thrones Odds After Episode 2: Who Dies First in Season 8, Odds the Night King is a Stark, and More…

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in Entertainment

Updated Mar 26, 2020 · 10:47 AM PDT

Game of Thrones
The action is about to get intense on the final season of Game of Thrones. Photo by HBO.
  • Game of Thrones’ Season 8 is two episodes in, and there promises to be plenty of action over the last four
  • Jon’s reveal to Daenerys and the battle preparations highlighted Episode 2
  • Explore our updated props for the last four episodes of Game of Thrones

Game of Thrones’ second episode of Season 8 was a lot like it’s first. There wasn’t much in terms of action, although the characters and the plot-driven tensions continued to drive the show.

That is all about to change.

There are four episodes left, and the teaser for Episode 3 showed that we’ll get fairly deep into the battle with the Night King. We could finish it, but his army is vast. And if the show somehow came up with a way for the battle to span two episodes, it wouldn’t surprise us.

With the timeline now abbreviated, check out some of our faovrite Game of Thrones bets.

Who Will Perish First in Season 8 of Game of Thrones?

When Will Perish First in Season 8? Odds
Theon Greyjoy +125
Jaime Lannister +300
Euron Greyjoy +500
Cersei Lannister +750
Yara Greyjoy +1000
Arya Stark +1500
Tyrion Lannister +1500
Jon Snow +2000
Daenerys Targaryen +2500
Sansa Stark +2500

*All odds taken 04/22/19

It’s a little shocking to see Theon Grejoy at the top of this list initially. Then you realize that all of the other characters have larger arcs that still have to play out. Theon is also putting himself squarely between the Night King and Bran.

Poor Reek. His only saving grave would be if he somehow turned out to be the Azor Ahai.

Pick: Theon Greyjoy (+125)

When Will the First Living Character Be Killed in the Battle of Winterfell?

When Will the First Living Character Be Killed in the Battle at Winterfell? Odds
9:15 p.m. ET or Earlier -115
9:16 p.m. ET or Later -115

This one is going to take  a little bit of math on our part. Here’s a look at the new opening credits:

YouTube video

Granted this is from Episode 1, but once HBO gets things rolling, we can strike two minutes off of our prospective 9:15 EST deadline.

While there’s a little bit of action in the trailer, HBO is keeping all of the awe-inspiring scenes under wraps too.

YouTube video

That’s an awful lot of posturing for an enemy that doesn’t talk.

While the episode will likely center on the battle, it would be very GoT-esque if they cut away to Cersei at some point. If this happened, it would likely be early in the episode.

Pick: 9:16 p.m. or later (-115)

Who Will Be Destroyed First in the Battle of Winterfell?

Who Will Be Destroyed First in the Battle of Winterfell? Odds
A Member of the Dead -250
A Member of the Living +170

We’re not going to spend a ton of time on this, because if the Night King is any kind of strategist, it’ll be a member of the undead.

Considering how many Wights they have at their disposal, the likelihood is that they’re all sent to a second (?) death very quickly. Then once the living are exhausted, the White Walkers will swoop in.

Pick: Member of the Dead (-250)

Game of Thrones Head-to-Head Survival Odds

Character Odds Character Odds
Varys -130 Bronn EVEN
Tormund Giantsbane -300 Brienne of Tarth +200
Gilly -400 Hot Pie +250
Euron Greyjoy -130 Theon Greyjoy -110
The Mountain -400 The Hound +250
Melisandre -400 Davos Seaworth +250
Jaime Lannister -300 Tyrion Lannister +200
Jon Snow -220 Bran Stark +155
Arya Stark -165 Sansa Stark +125
Cersei Lannister -270 Daenerys Targaryen +180

When we discussed this last week, we figured Tormund and company would arrive during the battle.

Well, they beat the Night King there, and we’re glad they did.

To be clear, I don’t want either to die. But if it’s going to be either of them, it’ll be Tormund. Likely saving Brienne in one last chance to win her affection.

We told you last week to go with Davos over Melisandre, and that advice still rings true. His lucky streak of bragging about battles he’s survived with no experience is ending.

Personally, I like Bran as a sneaky head-to-head pick if you believe one of three things.


  1. Jon Snow and company are living in the darkest timeline and about to enjoy a long winter
  2. The world could survive without a Three-Eyed Raven despite Sam thinking otherwise
  3. Bran dying is what he has planned all along/crucial to saving the world

Who Will Rule Westeros at the End of Game of Thrones?

Who Will Rule Westeros? Odds
Jon Snow +225
Bran Stark +300
Sansa Stark +500
Daenerys Targaryen +550
Gendry +650
Night King +1200
Petyr Baelish +1400
Samwell Tarly +1500
Tyrion Lannister +1500
Arya Stark +2000
Jon and Dany’s Baby +2000
Cersei Lannister +2500

Jon’s revelation has him at the top of the list, but we still don’t buy it. Unless he does a full heel turn, he’s not sitting on the Iron Throne.

While his sister Sansa is high up on the odds, she seems to have her sights set on ruling the North. Now could she “settle” for Westeros and double cross Daenerys? It definitely seems that way.

But if it came down to it, we still think that either the Night King or Jon and Daenerys’ baby will be sitting on the throne.

For the Night King, it’s very simple. If/when he gets past Bran, he’d essentially be unstoppable, because if he gets past Bran he’s made it through the rest of the North.

When it comes to the baby theory, it’s straightforward.

Dany is eliminated from contention because any Targaryen woman reference has died in child birth. While someone has to rule in the interim, a time jump would leave their child ruling when things fade to black.

When Will Cersei Lannister Perish?

When Will Cersei Lannister Perish? Odds
Episode 5 or 6 +500
Episode 3 or 4 -500
Does Not Perish +400

Well, we’ve been right so far on this, but time is running out.

We knew it wasn’t happening early on. We’ve stood by that since the beginning.

It wasn’t easy enough to stand by through Episode 1, but after the Night King’s army merely progressed to Winterfell, things aren’t looking so rosy.

If we scratch off Episode 3, assuming the whole thing is one big battle. Then that leaves four, five and six. We’re willing to bend the knee here. Looks like Cersei is making it to the last two.

Pick: Episode 5 or 6 (+500)

Will the Night King Be Confirmed as a Stark?

Will the Night King Be Confirmed as a Stark? Odds
Yes -330
No +215

This is another one that we took a deep dive into before things kicked off. The good news? If you’re with us, the odds have actually improved on “Yes”. With no further character develop on the big, blue baddie, we’re inclined to stay with yes on this.

If you think about it, the Night King being a Stark would mesh well with Bran being the Three-Eyed Raven if they finally get to meet face-to-face.

The Pick: Yes (-330)

What Will Bran Warg into Next?

What Will Bran Warg into Next? Odds
Raven +125
Dragon +250
Wolf +350
Other +400
Human +500

To this point, Bran has yet to Warg into anything this season. The last time we saw him use that ability, was at the close of Season 7 when he witnessed the falling of The Wall. With a looming face-to-face with the Night King, it’s fair to wonder if we’ll see it at all.

There’s no need for Ravens anymore, because we know where the White Walkers are.

The Raven has been the favorite for a while. But we’re backing away from it. Think about this: there’s no need for Ravens anymore, because we know where the White Walkers are. Ghost was last seen with Jon and it’s unlikely Bran has any use for him.

But what if Bran tries to Warg into the Night King when they meet again? Or what if he tries to use Theon to his advantage? We jokingly suggested Jaime last week, but Human is a distinct possibility.

And, whatever they count the Night King as, Other may be a worthwhile play too.

Pick: Other (+400) or Human  (+500)

Which Dragon Will Be Destroyed Next?

Which Dragon will Be Destroyed Next? Odds
Rhaegal -105
Undead Viserion -105
Drogon +500

This is kind of a strange one.

Namely because Rhaegal and Drogon seem to be in the most danger. With the White Walkers that are present, it’d be pretty simple for one of them to use the two remaining dragons for javelin practice.

But the easy way is never the way with Game of Thrones. And with just one episode of dragon-riding for Jon, Rhaegal isn’t biting it. Neither is Drogon. So that leaves us with Viserion.

The North has made their plan clear: they want to draw out the Night King. Kill him and the rest will fall. In the event they pull that off, Viserion is a member of “the rest”.

This isn’t a bet that we would go chasing, but if it catches your attention, we lean towards the Night King’s new pet.

Pick: Undead Viserion (-105)

Who Will Win the Cleganebowl?

Who Wins the Cleganebowl? Odds
Sandor “The Hound” Clegane -400
Gregor “The Mountain” Clegane +250
Both Die or are Destroyed +350

It’s about as good as the Super Bowl… but it features just two massive guys. So who wins?

When we first explored these odds, both perishing wasn’t an option. Now it is. And we like it.

What better way for The Hound and The Mountain to go out, than together? Expect The Hound to stay around a touch longer, just to get the last word win, but they’re both going down.

Pick: Both die or are destroyed (+350)


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Our Other Game of Thrones Season 8 Coverage:

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