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Game of Thrones Battle of Winterfell Odds: How Long Before the First Living Casualty? Who Will Survive?

Battle of Winterfell
The Battle of Winterfell promises to be epic. Photo by HBO.
  • Bovada has released new Game of Thrones props ahead of the Battle of Winterfell
  • You can wager on the time of the first death, whether it will be a member of the living or the dead, and which central character will perish first
  • What are the best bets for each prop?

The second episode in the final season of Game of Thrones featured a little bit of everything except violence. For the second consecutive week, no major chess pieces were wiped off the board, but that’s about to change with the Battle of Winterfell on deck.

In anticipation of the most epic GoT episode yet, Bovada has released a trio of new props that center around the battle’s first death, starting with which side will lose a soldier first.

Who Will Be Killed or Destroyed First at the Battle of Winterfell?

Who Will Be Killed or Destroyed First at the Battle of Winterfell? Odds at Bovada
A Member of the Dead -250
A Member of the Living +170

*Odds taken 04/22/19

The Battle of Winterfell will be the longest battle sequence in film or TV history. The living are horribly outnumbered and there’s no way they can start losing soldiers right away and have enough remaining to last the length of the episode. They’ve been frantically preparing for the upcoming attack, and will have archers, catapults, and traps ready to help land the first blow.


Keep in mind, the Night King will likely be missing from the initial action while he hunts down Bran Stark, leaving Daenerys’ two dragons free to mow down Wights with little resistance.

Pick: A Member of the Dead (-250)

What Time Will the First Living Character Be Killed in the Battle of Winterfell?

When Will the First Living Character Be Killed in the Battle of Winterfell? Odds at Bovada
9:15 pm ET or Earlier -115
9:15 pm ET or Later -115

This is tricky to dissect because there’s little information to go off of. Episode 3 is slated to run for 82 minutes, all of which will take place in Winterfell. We know it will be the longest battle sequence ever, and we know that it will be directed by Miguel Sapochnik, who previously directed Hardhome and Battle of the Bastards.

Those two episodes are best known for their legendary battle scenes, but both contained a substantial amount of lead up before the fighting began, as did the other famous battle episode Blackwater in Season 2. We know the fighting won’t take place the minute the opening credits finish, and I have to believe there’s still at least 15 minutes of set-up left before the first kill is recorded.

Pick: 9:15 pm ET or Later (-115)

Who Will Perish First in Season 8?

Who Will Perish First in Season 8? Odds at Bovada
Theon Greyjoy +125
Jamie Lannister +300
Euron Greyjoy +500
Cersei Lannister +750
Yara Greyjoy +1000
Arya Stark +1500
Tyrion Lannister +1500
Jon Snow +2000
Daenerys Targaryen +2500
Sansa Stark +2500

Let’s not overthink this one. The Theon Greyjoy redemption tour has reached its final stop. He earned back the trust of his fellow Ironborn, he rescued his sister and now he’s been welcomed back into the Stark’s good graces.

He’ll be in charge of guarding Bran in the Godswood, which is essentially a death mission, and when the Night King comes Theon will sacrifice himself like he did those two innocent farmboys way back in Season 2.

Pick: Theon Greyjoy (+125)


Our Other Game of Thrones Season 8 Coverage:

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