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2021 PGA Tour Sentry Tournament of Champions Odds and Picks

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Jan 4, 2021 · 5:56 AM PST

Justin Thomas driving
In this Jan. 7, 2016, file photo, Justin Thomas hits from the seventh tee during the first round of the Tournament of Champions golf tournament at Kapalua Plantation Course on Kapalua, Hawaii. With a new five-year sponsorship deal with Sentry Insurance, the PGA Tour strengthened its commitment to start the new year in Hawaii. (AP Photo/Matt York, File)
  • The Sentry Tournament of Champions from Kapalua Resort Plantation Course tees off Thursday, January 7th
  • Two-time champion Dustin Johnson opens up as the +650 favorite over Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm
  • We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

Following a month hiatus, the first official PGA Tour event of 2021 is at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Kapalua, Hawaii. Normally the qualification requirement for this tournament is a victory in the previous season, but with the COVID-19 pandemic halting play for three months last year, winners are joined by the top-30 players who qualified for the Tour Championship as well.

Players from the United States have dominated this event, with ten champions in a row from USA, with the last international being Australian Geoff Ogilvy in 2010. Eight of the top ten players in the world are teeing it up, with the notable exceptions being Rory McIlroy and Tyrrell Hatton.

Three of the top four players on the board have captured this tournament in the last four years, with Dustin Johnson winning his second TOC in 2018, Justin Thomas earning the W in both 2017 and 2020 and Xander Schauffele taking the crown in 2019.

2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions Odds

Golfer Odds
Dustin Johnson +650
Justin Thomas +800
Jon Rahm +800
Xander Schauffele +1000
Bryson DeChambeau +1200
Patrick Reed +1800
Patrick Cantlay +1800
Webb Simpson +1800
Hideki Matsuyama +2000
Viktor Hovland +2000
Tony Finau +2200
Collin Morikawa +2500
Daniel Berger +2800
Harris English +3500
Scottie Scheffler +3500
Joaquin Niemann +4500
Sungjae Im +4500
Cameron Smith +4500
Kevin Kisner +5000
Abraham Ancer +5000

Odds taken January 4th from DraftKings

Justin Thomas Loves Kapalua

Justin Thomas, who is the defending champion that has tasted victory here twice in the last four years, comes into this week on a high note, having won the PNC Challenge with his father the last time he played. That was an offseason start, but in his last six official tournaments, he’s posted a pair of runner-ups and nothing worse than T-12th.

In six career times teeing it up at Kapalua, he has those two victories, a third, T-6, T-21 and T-22 finishes so it’s no surprise that he likes this venue. With not much separating himself from DJ on this track, wagering on him offers a tiny bit more value than Johnson at a place he loves.

Last Five Sentry Tournament of Champions Winners

Year Winner
2020 Justin Thomas (-14) Playoff
2019 Xander Schauffele (-23)
2018 Dustin Johnson (-24)
2017 Justin Thomas (-22)
2016 Jordan Spieth (-30)

Sentry Tournament of Champions Best Value Picks

  1. Patrick Reed (+1800): The 2015 champion at this event, Reed came oh-so-close to winning his second career Sentry TOC last year, losing to Justin Thomas on the third playoff hole. Also was a runner-up in 2016. In his last four tournaments, Reed has been strong, with a T-8 at the Tour Championship, T-10 at the Masters, T-13 at the US Open and T-14 at the Zozo Championship.
  2. Collin Morikawa (+2500): The two-time winner last season, which included the PGA Championship had a solid debut at this event last year with at T-7 result. Known to be streaky player, Morikawa’s best finish in five tourneys in the early season was T-12, but playing super well before victory wasn’t imperative last year, with him missing a cut and also being T-20 the tournaments before emerging victorious in 2020.
  3. Abraham Ancer (+5000): Destined to finally break through on the grandest of stages in 2021, after a pair of runner-ups at the American Express and RBC Heritage last year. Criminal he hasn’t yet won on the PGA Tour, so why can’t it happen against a field of just 42 golfers? Missed just one cut in 21 events last year, with finishes of 4, T-12, T-13 his best in the last five times teeing it up.
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