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2021 US Open Best Sleepers & Longshot Picks at Torrey Pines

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Jun 16, 2021 · 6:58 AM PDT

Viktor Hovland celebrates after his round
Viktor Hovland, of Norway, fist bumps his caddie after his round on the 18th hole during the second round of the PGA Championship golf tournament on the Ocean Course Friday, May 21, 2021, in Kiawah Island, S.C. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)
  • The 2021 U.S. Open tees off Thursday, June 17th at Torrey Pines (South Course), in San Diego, CA
  • Viktor Hovland has six top-5 finishes, including a win since the last U.S. Open in September
  • Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays

It’s U.S. Open week, and it’s hard to imagine a better place to be than Torrey Pines in San Diego, California starting on Thursday, June 17th.

The first two Majors of the season produced longshot winners of 40-1 and 200-1 in Hideki Matsuyama and Phil Mickelson, and we’re going to be banking on another golfer with favorable odds to take home the trophy on Sunday.

A quick glance at the previous five winners (Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka x2, Gary Woodland and Bryson DeChambeau) reveals one glaring similarity. All five are elite off the tee players, and with Torrey Pines playing close to 7,700 yards, we’re going to want to target guys who excel at driving the ball.

You can’t talk off the tee prowess without bringing up Viktor Hovland, and the young star is where we’ll start our betting card at +2900.

2021 U.S. Open Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds
Viktor Hovland +2900 +250 +110
Louis Oosthuizen +5000 +490 +170
Jason Kokrak +7000 +600 +250
Sam Burns +11000 +900 +410
Jhonattan Vegas +29000 +1500 +550
Taylor Pendrith +50000 +3200 +1000

Odds as of June 14th at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Hovland a Statistical Darling

Hovland’s price varies depending on which online sportsbook you use, so make sure to shop around. He’s listed as short as +2200 at some books, and as long as +2900 at others.

Viktor Hovland Strokes Gained Data Ranks – Last 50 Rounds

T2G OTT APP ARG
11 5 20 70

He’s a statistical darling, especially when it comes to ball striking, and has the perfect combination of length and accuracy off the tee. He’s gained the fifth most strokes off the tee of anyone in this field over the past 50 rounds, and just happens to be a pretty good iron player as well.

Hovland has gained at least 2.2 strokes on approach in four straight tournaments, and five times in his past nine measured events, he’s gained at least 4.1 strokes with his irons. One of those starts was at Torrey Pines this past February at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he finished runner-up to Patrick Reed.

He’s finished 13th and 12th in his only two U.S. Open appearances, and owns six top-5 results since the last time the U.S. Open was contested in September.

Pick: Viktor Hovland to Win Outright (+2900)

Bet Viktor Hovland, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele & Paul Casey All to Finish Top 20 Boosted to +700 Odds at William Hill

Oostie On Fire

Our next target is Louis Oosthuizen, who’s not only famous for winning an Open Championship, but also finishing runner-up in all four Majors over the course of his career.

He was runner-up at a PGA Championship for the second time last month, and owns a 7th and 3rd place result in his past two U.S. Open starts. He’s never won on North American soil, which makes him better suited as a top-10 bet than an outright selection, but does own three top-8 finishes in his past six starts.

Oosthuizen isn’t considered a bomber off the tee, but he does consistently gain strokes in that category. He’s been positive off the tee in 12 of his past 15 events, and owns the best short game in this field over the past 50 rounds.

Pick: Louis Oosthuizen Top-10 Finish (+490)

US Open Odds: Track 2023 Betting Favorites – Scheffler, Rahm & McIlroy
Read More

Kokrak a T-10 Machine

Speaking of top-10 picks, now is the time to pounce on Jason Kokrak. He’s fresh off his second win of the season, and has finished 9th or better four times in seven starts.

His ball striking was flawless during his win at the Charles Schwab (+11.4 strokes), and he’s all of a sudden morphed into an elite putter.

He’s gained at least 3 strokes with the flat stick in six of his past seven measured events, something he’s never done before as a pro. He’s already an elite off the tee player, ranking 20th in that category over the past 50 rounds, and those two aspects of his game should translate into continued success at Torrey Pines. He’s finished 29th or better in three straight trips to this venue, and his form has never been better.

Top-20 Value Picks

  1. Sam Burns (+410): Owns a win and a runner-up finish in two of his last four starts. Burns ranks 12th in the field in strokes gained approach and 44th in strokes gained off the tee over the past 50 rounds. He played in the final group at Torrey Pines on Sunday at this year’s Farmers Insurance Open, before sliding down to 18th.
  2. Jhonattan Vegas (+550): A super elite when it comes to off the tee play, Vegas comes to Torrey Pines in great form. He’s finished 2nd and 9th in two of his past three events, and has gained at least 2.3 strokes off the tee in five straight starts.
  3. Taylor Pendrith (+1000): We’re diving deep here with Pendrith, but he does possess some of the necessary skills to excel at a U.S. Open. He mashes the ball off the tee, and possess a great touch around the greens. He finished 23rd last year in his only U.S. Open appearance, gaining 4.5 strokes off the tee, and 3.6 strokes combined on and around the green.
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