- The 2022 Memorial Tournament from Muirfield Village begins on Thursday (June 2nd)
- Viktor Hovland leads the field in strokes gained approach over the past 50 rounds
- Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets
We are officially on a heater. A Sam Burns victory last week at 30-1, gives us two outright winners over the past four tournaments. Throw in a runner-up finish by Will Zalatoris at the PGA Championship during that same stretch, and there’s been no shortage of Sunday sweats thanks to our sleepers and longshots betting card.
This week the PGA Tour moves to Muirfield Village for Jack’s tournament, where one key statistic historically stands out. Strokes gained approach has been by far the biggest indicator of success among the top-10 finishers in recent years, proving to be over twice as important as strokes gained off the tee.
That means elite iron players only on our card, starting with perhaps the best iron player in the game.
2022 Memorial Tournament Odds
|Golfer||Odds to Win||Top-10 Odds||Top-20 Odds|
|Si Woo Kim||+10000||+750||+275|
That of course is Viktor Hovland, who’s offered to us at a steep discount this week. Hovland is currently +2500 in the outright market, far longer than he’s been even in Major Championships.
Hovland’s Irons Are Hot Fire
Hovland leads the field in strokes gained approach over the past 50 rounds, and ranks top-four if you shrink the sample size down to 36 and 24 rounds. He’s typically priced below 20-1, which makes his odds this week a steal.
If you don't love Viktor Hovland, we can't be friends.pic.twitter.com/EGaxWcXePz
— Skratch (@Skratch) March 14, 2022
He hasn’t posted any elite finishes since a run of fourth, second and ninth place results in February and March, but the drought simply won’t last given his elite talent. This is a player with six worldwide victories already at the age of 24, including three since of the start of November.
The concern this week is the importance of a solid around the green game at Muirfield Village, something he doesn’t necessarily possess. He’s lost strokes around the green in eight of his past 10 tournaments, but getting up and down isn’t nearly as important when you are peppering greens.
Viktor Hovland birdies to extend his lead to 2. 🐦 pic.twitter.com/b9LcsILMOq
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 6, 2022
Hovland ranks 13th in greens in regulation over the past 50 rounds, and finished third at the Workday when it was contested at Jack’s course back in 2020.
Pick: Viktor Hovland to Win (+2500 at BetMGM)
A Wise Decision
Moving a little further down the board we find Aaron Wise at +8000 to win and +650 in the T10 market. Wise ranks top-10 in the field in strokes gained approach over the past 24 rounds, and has gained 13.5 strokes with his irons combined in his last three tournaments.
9 putts made over 10 feet so far this week for @AaronWise_.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 20, 2021
One of those results was a sixth place finish in Mexico, which gives him three top-8’s this season, to go along with an additional two top-17 results.
Wise is also an elite Par-4 scorer, especially on longer Par-4’s ranging from 450-500 yards. Muirfield village features seven holes of that variety, which are some of the most difficult on the course. Over the past 24 rounds only eight players have a better scoring average on holes from than range than Wise.
Pick: Aaron Wise to Win (+8000 DraftKings) and T10 Finish (+650 BetMGM)
Top 20 Value Picks
- Si Woo Kim (+275): Back-to-back top-18 finishes at this event, and is fresh off gaining over 5 strokes on approach last time out. Normally a volatile pick, Kim has shown elite consistency this season by missing just two cuts, while posting six top-20’s.
- Tom Hoge (+275): He burned us last week but the sliver lining is that his odds cratered for this event. Over the past 50 rounds, Hoge ranks fifth in strokes gained approach and 12th in scoring in the key 450-500 yard Par-4 range.