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2022 Players Championship Sleepers, Longshot Picks at TPC Sawgrass

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Mar 8, 2022 · 6:00 AM PST

Dustin Johnson tee shot
Dustin Johnson tees off on the fourth hole during the first round of the Genesis Invitational golf tournament at Riviera Country Club, Thursday, Feb. 17, 2022, in the Pacific Palisades area of Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ryan Kang)
  • The 2022 Players Championship from TPC Sawgrass begins on Thursday (March 10th)
  • Both Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka are outrageous values in the outright market
  • Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets

The strongest field of the season meets the purest test in golf. That’s the slogan for this week’s Players Championship, the unofficial fifth Major on the PGA Tour calendar. 46 of the top-50 players in the world are set to tee it up starting Thursday (March 10th) at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, with the season’s biggest purse up for grabs.

With a tournament featuring this much star power, value is bound to be available in the outright market and we’ve identified a handful of bets to target on our sleepers and longshots betting card.

2022 Players Championship Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds
Dustin Johnson +4000  +400 +175
Brooks Koepka +4800 +450 +200
Jason Day +9000 +800 +330
Alex Noren +10000 +800 +350

Odds as of March 8th at DraftKings and FanDuel

Our action starts with a pair of former world number #1’s who are outrageously priced given their pedigree.

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Dustin Johnson Disrespected By Oddsmakers

DJ normally checks in with odds south of 20-1, and even goes off some weeks with a price tag shorter than +1000. Yet this week he’s priced all the way up at +4000 in the Players Championship odds, something we haven’t seen in a very long time.

Sure, the recent form isn’t great, but he’s teed it up just twice this year so how big of a conclusion do we want to draw from those two starts. Last time out he missed the cut at the Genesis, and in his previous start he finished 25th at the Farmers. Of course, we expect a lot more from a player of his calibre, but his tee-to-green game was top notch at Torrey Pines. The two-time Major champ gained 8.3 strokes tee-to-green, 7.1 of which was thanks to his ball striking.

Johnson ended last season with four top-10’s in his final six starts, and finished fifth at this tournament in 2019. One of the few things missing from his trophy case is a Players Championship, and we can’t just standby and let online sportsbooks get away with pricing him at such an outrageous tag.

Pick: Dustin Johnson to Win +4000 (DraftKings)

Koepka is a Screaming Value

Brooks Koepka is priced even longer than DJ. Koepka has thrown everybody off the scent, and it won’t be long before he wins again and resumes his position as one of the shortest priced golfers in every event he enters.

People are under the assumption that he’s lost his game, but the truth is he’s only motivated at the big boy events. With a share of $20 million up for grabs, you better believe Koepka will show up to TPC Sawgrass with some fire in his belly. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s had success at TPC Sawgrass in the past with two top-16 finishes in his last three trips.

As for the demise of his game, let’s just say that’s been greatly exaggerated. Koepka finished 16th at the Honda Classic last time out, one of the toughest tournaments on Tour, and two starts prior he racked up a third place result in Phoenix.

The Four-time Major champ has gained at least 5.3 strokes ball striking in two of his past three starts, and like DJ, is a Players Championship trophy away from a virtually complete trophy case.

I’m betting one of those two takes home the title this week.

Pick: Brooks Koepka to Win +4800 (FanDuel), Top-10 +450 (DraftKings)

Top 20 Value Picks

  1. Jason Day (+330): The value doesn’t stop once we reach the top-20 market. Jason Day absolutely loves this course and is off to his best start to a season in quite some time. He’s gained at least 6.7 total strokes on the field in back-to-back starts, highlighted by a third place finish at Torrey Pines. The 2016 Players Champion has five career top-20 finishes at this event, including three in his past five starts.
  2. Alex Noren (+350): If conditions are even half as windy and rainy as they currently project, you’re going to want some exposure to Alex Noren. The Swede plays his best golf on tough courses, and has two top-six results in his past three starts on Tour. Last time out he gained 6.9 strokes with his ball striking, and another 2.5 strokes with his putter. In four career Players Championship starts he owns a pair of top-17 results.
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