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3M Open H2H Picks & Odds to Make the Cut

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Jul 25, 2023 · 9:50 PM PDT

Tom Hoge admires a tee shot.
May 25, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Tom Hoge plays his shot from the 11th tee during the first round of the Charles Schwab Challenge golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
  • Make and miss the cut odds are live for the 3M Open starting Thursday, July 27
  • Tom Hoge has missed three of his past five cuts
  • Check out the complete list of 3M Open make and miss the cut odds, plus a H2H matchup pick to target

The second last week of the PGA Tour’s regular season takes golfers to TPC Twin Cities for the 3M Open. This is a track littered with landmines, mostly in the form of water, which will require prestine ball striking in order to achieve success.

One player who’s struggling in that category is Tom Hoge, which makes him an ideal target in the miss the cut market.

3M Open Make the Cut Odds

Golfer Odds to Make the Cut Odds to Miss the Cut
Hideki Matsuyama -500 +300
Sungjae Im -500 +300
Tony Finau -500 +300
Cameron Young -500 +300
Emiliano Grillo -390 +250
Sepp Straka -310 +210
Gary Woodland -310 +210
Stephan Jaeger -310 +210
Adam Hadwin -310 +210
Cameron Davis -250 +175
J.T. Poston -250 +175
Mark Hubbard -250 +175
Justin Thomas -250 +175
Tom Hoge -225 +160
Nicolai Hojgaard -225 +160
Alex Noren -225 +160
Patrick Rodgers -225 +160
Ludvig Aberg -225 +160
J.J. Spaun -225 +160
Sahith Theegala -225 +160
Keith Mitchell -215 +150
Austin Eckroat -215 +150
Eric Cole -215 +150
Doug Ghim -195 +140
Beau Hossler -195 +140
Lee Hodges -195 +140
Justin Suh -195 +140

Hoge currently boasts +160 odds to trunk slam, something he’s had a habit of doing lately. Four players, including pre-tournament favorite and defending champ Tony Finau, have the longest odds to miss the weekend, currently sporting +300 odds to do so.


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Hoge’s Form Outweighs His Course History

Fading Hoge at TPC Twin Cities can be a bit worrisome given his course history. He finished fourth here last season, and has made the weekend in three of four appearances. However, he enters the week in miserable form.

Hoge has trunk slammed in three of his last five starts, including last week at the British Open. He’s finished higher than 43rd just once since the Players Championship in early March, with five total missed cuts during that stretch.

Tom Hoge Results – Last Three Starts

Tournament Result
British Open MC
Scottish Open T19
Rocket Mortgage Classic MC
Travelers Championship 60th
US Open MC

Hoge is typcially known for excellent ball striking, but that part of his game has abandoned him recently. He ranks 121st in the field in that metric over the last 12 rounds, losing at least 4.5 strokes in three of his past four measured starts.

To make matters worse, he’s getting no help from his putter once he reaches the greens. Hoge has lost strokes putting in six straight measured tournaments, and ranks 145th on the greens over the last 12 rounds.

Pick: Tom Hoge to Miss the Cut (+160)

Make the Cut Parlay

Switching gears now to the make the cut market, where we’ve put together a four-leg parlay of golfers we like to play the weekend. The wager is headlined by Cameron Davis, who’s made the cut in three straight 3M Open appearances, and is a former champion at Detroit CC, a corollary course to TPC Twin Cities.

Davis will be joined by Ludvig Aberg, who has the game to take this track apart. The Swede ranks sixth in strokes gained tee-to-green over the last 12 rounds, fourth in scoring and second in off the tee play.

We’ll round out the parlay with Eric Cole and Austin Eckroat, who have both been elite cutmakers this summer. Cole has found the weekend in six straight starts, and ranks sixth in iron play over the last 12 rounds. Eckroat is 23rd in strokes gained tee-to-green over the same stretch, making the cut in eight of his last nine starts.

Pick: Make the Cut Parlay (+334)

Aberg vs Thomas H2H Matchup

Moving to the 72-hole head-to-head matchup market now, where once again Aberg is our target. We’re grabbing him at plus-money odds versus Justin Thomas, not only for the Swede’s impressive ball striking and scoring abilities, but also due to Thomas’ horrendous form.

Aberg vs Thomas H2H Odds

Team Moneyline
Ludvig Aberg +100
Justin Thomas -120

JT is currently outside the FedExCup Playoff standings, after posting four missed cuts in his past six events. Since the PGA Championship, he’s cracked the top-60 in only one start, and has been spraying the ball all over the place.

Thomas ranks 123rd in off the tee play over the last 12 rounds, and 92nd in strokes gained tee-to-green. Once he gets to the putting surface the numbers are even worse. Thomas is 134th in the field in putting over the past 12 rounds, losing strokes with the flat stick in all but one of his last seven tournaments.

Pick: Ludvig Aberg Over Justin Thomas (+100)  


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