3M Open H2H Picks & Odds to Make the Cut
- Make and miss the cut odds are live for the 3M Open starting Thursday, July 27
- Tom Hoge has missed three of his past five cuts
- Check out the complete list of 3M Open make and miss the cut odds, plus a H2H matchup pick to target
The second last week of the PGA Tour’s regular season takes golfers to TPC Twin Cities for the 3M Open. This is a track littered with landmines, mostly in the form of water, which will require prestine ball striking in order to achieve success.
One player who’s struggling in that category is Tom Hoge, which makes him an ideal target in the miss the cut market.
3M Open Make the Cut Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Make the Cut | Odds to Miss the Cut |
|---|---|---|
| Hideki Matsuyama | -500 | +300 |
| Sungjae Im | -500 | +300 |
| Tony Finau | -500 | +300 |
| Cameron Young | -500 | +300 |
| Emiliano Grillo | -390 | +250 |
| Sepp Straka | -310 | +210 |
| Gary Woodland | -310 | +210 |
| Stephan Jaeger | -310 | +210 |
| Adam Hadwin | -310 | +210 |
| Cameron Davis | -250 | +175 |
| J.T. Poston | -250 | +175 |
| Mark Hubbard | -250 | +175 |
| Justin Thomas | -250 | +175 |
| Tom Hoge | -225 | +160 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | -225 | +160 |
| Alex Noren | -225 | +160 |
| Patrick Rodgers | -225 | +160 |
| Ludvig Aberg | -225 | +160 |
| J.J. Spaun | -225 | +160 |
| Sahith Theegala | -225 | +160 |
| Keith Mitchell | -215 | +150 |
| Austin Eckroat | -215 | +150 |
| Eric Cole | -215 | +150 |
| Doug Ghim | -195 | +140 |
| Beau Hossler | -195 | +140 |
| Lee Hodges | -195 | +140 |
| Justin Suh | -195 | +140 |
Hoge currently boasts +160 odds to trunk slam, something he’s had a habit of doing lately. Four players, including pre-tournament favorite and defending champ Tony Finau, have the longest odds to miss the weekend, currently sporting +300 odds to do so.
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Hoge’s Form Outweighs His Course History
Fading Hoge at TPC Twin Cities can be a bit worrisome given his course history. He finished fourth here last season, and has made the weekend in three of four appearances. However, he enters the week in miserable form.
Hoge has trunk slammed in three of his last five starts, including last week at the British Open. He’s finished higher than 43rd just once since the Players Championship in early March, with five total missed cuts during that stretch.
Tom Hoge Results – Last Three Starts
| Tournament | Result |
|---|---|
| British Open | MC |
| Scottish Open | T19 |
| Rocket Mortgage Classic | MC |
| Travelers Championship | 60th |
| US Open | MC |
Hoge is typcially known for excellent ball striking, but that part of his game has abandoned him recently. He ranks 121st in the field in that metric over the last 12 rounds, losing at least 4.5 strokes in three of his past four measured starts.
To make matters worse, he’s getting no help from his putter once he reaches the greens. Hoge has lost strokes putting in six straight measured tournaments, and ranks 145th on the greens over the last 12 rounds.
Pick: Tom Hoge to Miss the Cut (+160)
Make the Cut Parlay
Switching gears now to the make the cut market, where we’ve put together a four-leg parlay of golfers we like to play the weekend. The wager is headlined by Cameron Davis, who’s made the cut in three straight 3M Open appearances, and is a former champion at Detroit CC, a corollary course to TPC Twin Cities.
Davis will be joined by Ludvig Aberg, who has the game to take this track apart. The Swede ranks sixth in strokes gained tee-to-green over the last 12 rounds, fourth in scoring and second in off the tee play.
The most bet on golfers to win the 3M Open ⛳
1. Sepp Straka (+2500)
2. Ludvig Aberg (+3500)
3. Austin Eckroat (+7000)
4. Emiliano Grillo (+2500)
5. Lucas Glover (+5000) pic.twitter.com/kSl2mswTbG— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) July 24, 2023
We’ll round out the parlay with Eric Cole and Austin Eckroat, who have both been elite cutmakers this summer. Cole has found the weekend in six straight starts, and ranks sixth in iron play over the last 12 rounds. Eckroat is 23rd in strokes gained tee-to-green over the same stretch, making the cut in eight of his last nine starts.
Pick: Make the Cut Parlay (+334)
Aberg vs Thomas H2H Matchup
Moving to the 72-hole head-to-head matchup market now, where once again Aberg is our target. We’re grabbing him at plus-money odds versus Justin Thomas, not only for the Swede’s impressive ball striking and scoring abilities, but also due to Thomas’ horrendous form.
Aberg vs Thomas H2H Odds
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Ludvig Aberg | +100 |
| Justin Thomas | -120 |
JT is currently outside the FedExCup Playoff standings, after posting four missed cuts in his past six events. Since the PGA Championship, he’s cracked the top-60 in only one start, and has been spraying the ball all over the place.
☠️ Justin Thomas…
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) July 20, 2023
Thomas ranks 123rd in off the tee play over the last 12 rounds, and 92nd in strokes gained tee-to-green. Once he gets to the putting surface the numbers are even worse. Thomas is 134th in the field in putting over the past 12 rounds, losing strokes with the flat stick in all but one of his last seven tournaments.
Pick: Ludvig Aberg Over Justin Thomas (+100)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
