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3M Open Predictions & Odds 2023

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Updated Jul 24, 2023 · 10:09 AM PDT

Tony Finau hitting a shot
July 21, 2023; Hoylake, ENGLAND, GBR; Tony Finau plays on the fourth hole during the second round of The Open Championship golf tournament at Royal Liverpool. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
  • The 3M Open from Blaine, Minnesota tees off Thursday, July 27th
  • Tony Finau is the +1200 favorite over Cameron Young
  • See the 2023 3M odds, picks, and best value bets below

The final men’s major of 2023 has come and gone, with Brian Harman rolling to a sensational six-stroke victory at the Open Championship. The golfers next stop is Blaine, Minnesota for the 3M Open, which is the second last regular season tournament before the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

This year just the top-70 players compete, as opposed to top-125, so playoff stalwart Justin Thomas needs to get something going as the 75th ranked competitor, and he tees it up this week. There have been four iterations of this tournament, with each time the winner going low, with scores ranging from 15 to 21 under-par for the champions.

2023 3M Open Odds

Golfers Odds
Tony Finau +1200
Cameron Young +1400
Sungjae Im +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Justin Thomas +2000
Emiliano Grillo +2800
Sepp Straka +3000
Gary Woodland +3500
Sahith Theegala +3500
Ludvig Aberg +3500
Stephan Jaeger +3500
Patrick Rodgers +4000
Keith Mitchell +4000
Adam Hadwin +4500
Cam Davis +4500
J.J. Spaun +4500
Beau Hossler +4500
Mark Hubbard +4500
Akshay Bhatia +5000
J.T. Poston +5000

The betting favorite is Tony Finau at +1200. He made this the first of back-to-back victories last season. He’s followed by Cameron Young, who contended at last weekend’s Open Championship before settling for a T-8th result. Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Thomas round out the top-five contenders.



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Emiliano Grillo Poised For Another Victory

Emiliano Grillo is coming off his best ever finish at a major championship, where he co-led the Open after round one, then wound up tied for sixth. A few months ago, he won for the second time on the PGA Tour at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and he’s contended at the 3M Open in the past.

Emiliano Grillo’s Strokes Gained Stats Last 12 Rounds At 3M Open

Tee-To-Green Total Ball Striking Off-The-Tee Approach Short Game
3 4 5 9 11 34

In 2020, the Argentinian ended up in a tie for third at the 3M Open, then last year he was runner-up to Tony Finau. Given his strong play of late and exceptional track record around TPC Twin Cities, his +2800 odds to win outright are very intriguing.

Past Four 3M Open Winners

Year Winner
2022 Tony Finau
2021 Cameron Champ
2020 Michael Thompson
2019 Matthew Wolff

2023 3M Open Picks and Value Bets

  1. Adam Hadwin (+4000): The second last time he teed it up, Adam Hadwin very nearly won his second PGA Tour event, dropping a playoff at the Rocket Mortgage Classic to Rickie Fowler. He’s had success at this track also, securing a fourth place showing in 2019 and a tie for sixth in 2021. In the last twelve rounds at this venue, he’s fourth in total strokes gained and fifth in putting.
  2. Taylor Pendrith (+6000): Before a missed cut at the Barracuda Championship, Taylor Pendrith was trending, with a T-14th in Detroit (he was in the final group on Sunday), then a sixth place showing at the Barbasol. For those two events, he gained over 15 shots tee-to-green compared to his competitors.
  3. Garrick Higgo (+7500): South African lefty Garrick Higgo has quietly been playing solidly, going T-33, T-21, T-19 in his last three starts. In that stretch, he’s sixth in strokes gained off the tee and top-15 in total strokes gained. He’ll be an interesting name in the top 10/20 markets.


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