First-Round Leader Picks & Bets for the PGA Championship

• The PGA Championship tees off Thursday, May 15th, from Quail Hollow Golf Club in Charlotte, North Carolina
• Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are co-favorites to lead after 18 holes
• Read below for five selections of mine to be leader after day one of the PGA Championship

After Rory McIlroy was victorious at the Masters last month, the second major of 2025 tees off Thursday at a familiar site, Quail Hollow Golf Club. This course has hosted the Wells Fargo Championship since 2003, and it was also the site of Justin Thomas’ first PGA Championship triumph in 2017. Plenty of big names are playing great golf, including Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Thomas. Scheffler is the slight favorite in the PGA Championship odds to win over McIlroy, who has won four times at this track in his career.

Instead of waiting until Sunday to potentially collect our earnings, this article will explore bets that can be made that will settle at the conclusion of the first round, searching to find who will be the first-round leader after 18 holes.

PGA Championship First-Round Leader Odds

The weather will be mainly sunny, with temperatures between mid 60’s in the morning, reaching a high in the low 80’s in the afternoon. Wind gusts will increase as the day wears on, with those competing in the morning holding the slight advantage. Scottie Scheffler, the favorite to win outright, is sporting the shortest odds to be first-round leader, along with reigning Masters champ Rory McIlroy. They’re playing alongside defending champ Xander Schauffele.

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PGA Championship First-Round Leader Picks

• Xander Schauffele +3000
• Tommy Fleetwood +5000
• Keith Mitchell +6000
• Denny McCarthy +9000
• Mackenzie Hughes +11000

In terms of the top guns, they don’t come much bigger than Xander Schauffele (8:22am). He’s the defending champ, and also won the Open Championship in 2024. He loves Quail Hollow Golf Club, having finished runner-up at this venue the last two years it hosted the Wells Fargo Championship. Remarkably, the X-Man has been inside the top-20 in his last twelve majors. After being off early in the year due to a rib injury, he’s rounding into form with four straight top-20s.

Another big name that’s no stranger on leaderboards at major championships is Tommy Fleetwood (7:49am), with his eight top-10s in the grand slam tourneys. He comes in with solid form, finishing T-4th and 7th the last two times teeing it up (in signature events), and also was T-5th at this track in 2023. The Englishmen is fourth in total strokes gained the last twelve spins around this course, and remarkably has been inside the top-25 in 18 of his last 19 events.

Longshots Who Could Lead After 18 Holes

The first of my three longshots should come as a no-brainer, at least in terms of recent form. While Keith Mitchell (12:25pm) only has one PGA Tour victory to his credit, he’s been no stranger to top of the leaderboard in the last two months. Amazingly, in his last five stroke play events, he’s either been first (three times) or second (twice) after 18 holes with a scoring average of 64.2. He’s flashed decent form because of that, with five consecutive top-20s, and was T-3rd at Quail Hollow in 2021 and T-8th in 2019, ranking third in ball striking the last 16 rounds at this venue.

Next I’m bullish on Denny McCarthy at +9000 odds (8:55am). He was in second place after 18 holes last week at the Truist Championship, and is 15th in first-round scoring on the campaign. He’s a phenomenal putter year in and year out, which could lead to a lot of birdies to jump out in front. The last three years at this course, McCarthy was T-6th, T-8th, and T-25th, ranking second in putting.

For my final selection, I’m going with Mackenzie Hughes (12:41pm), a +11000 longshot, despite being a member at this very golf course! In last week’s Myrtle Beach Classic, he was the solo leader after day one, where he eventually finished runner-up in a playoff. He’s shown an affinity for the track he knows so well, placing T-6th in 2024 and T-9th in 2022. In his last four starts, he’s mixed in the aforementioned second place with a missed cut, but also has been T-3rd at the RBC Heritage and 10th at the Houston Open.