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Farmers Insurance Open Odds to Make the Cut

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Jan 24, 2023 · 9:24 PM PST

Keegan Bradley reacts to a missed putt
Aug 19, 2022; Wilmington, Delaware, USA; Keegan Bradley reacts after a missed putt on the fifth green during the second round of the BMW Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
  • The odds to make and miss the cut are live for the Farmers Insurance Open
  • Is there a favorite in danger of missing the cut? How many off the radar players will reach the weekend?
  • Check out the Farmers Insurance Open make and miss the cut odds for the top players in the field below

Fresh off yet another Jon Rahm victory, the PGA Tour’s California swing moves on to Torrey Pines starting Wednesday. This venue is a staple on the Tour’s rotation and the South Course, where three of the four rounds will be played, is the longest track golfers will tee it up at all season.

Driving distance and strokes gained off the tee will be key metrics to look at this week, as will scrambling and putting. The greens at Torrey Pines are extremely tough to hit and the complexes are very tricky. Year after year, the South Course produces one of the highest three-put percentage rates on Tour.

Online sportsbooks have released their make and miss the cut list for the Farmers Insurance Open, and just like last week there is a huge discrepancy between the elite players and the rest of the field.

Make/Miss Cut Odds at the Farmers Insurance Open

Golfer Odds to Make the Cut Odds to Miss the Cut
Jon Rahm -5000 +1200
Xander Schauffele -1200 +550
Tony Finau -1100 +500
Max Homa -700 +400
Justin Thomas -600 +350
Sungjae Im -600 +350
Taylor Montgomery -600 +350
Jason Day -600 +350
Collin Morikawa -600 +350
Will Zalatoris -425 +275
Maverick McNealy -425 +275
Si Woo Kim -350 +225
Justin Rose -350 +225
J.J. Spaun -350 +225
Sahith Theegala -280 +190
Keegan Bradley -280 +190
Cam Davis -265 +180
Adam Hadwin -245 +170
Taylor Pendrith -245 +170
Alex Smalley -245 +170
Will Gordon -225 +160
Hayden Buckley -215 +150

Odds as of January 24 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings Sportsbook bonus code to bet on the Farmers Insurance Open.

Rahm, the world number four and tournament favorite is once again a staggering -5000 to make the cut. Rahm hasn’t missed a cut since the 2021 Fortinet Championship, and has previously won this tournament as well as a U.S. Open at Torrey Pines.

Expecting him to miss a cut anywhere in the world at the moment would be foolish, but the same cannot be said about another former major champ Keegan Bradley.

 

 

Fade Keegan Bradley

On paper, Bradley has a game that should excel at Torrey Pines. He usually drives the ball long and straight, and typically gains strokes around the greens. Bradley does have a pair top-five finishes at the Farmers in 11 starts, but he also has a pair of missed cuts and plenty of middling results.

Keegan Bradley’s 2023 Results

Tournament Result SG Total
Sony Open MC -4.3
Sentry TOC 34th -7.3

The reason to fade Bradley this week is the current state of his game. He’s started the season in a funk, losing strokes in nearly every key category. After not playing competitively for two-plus months, Bradley started 2023 with a 34th place finish at the Sentry TOC in a 38-man event. He lost 7.3 total strokes to the field in that tournament, and wasn’t much better the following week.

Bradley was a trunk slammer at the Sony Open, losing 4.3 total strokes to the field. Torrey Pines is the one of the toughest tests players will face this season, and Bradley’s form just doesn’t seem up for the challenge.

Pick: Keegan Bradley to Miss Cut (+190)

Make the Cut Parlay

While we’re fading Bradley to make it through the cutline, there’s a handful of players we are confident will be playing all four rounds.

Let’s start with Tony Finau, one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet. He’s won three times in his last nine PGA Tour events, and has four top-13 finishes at the Farmers in his past five starts. He’s an excellent first target for our make the cut parlay.

Next up, Will Zalatoris. He lost in a playoff here last year, and finished seventh in his Farmers debut. He leads the field in ball striking over the past 50 rounds, and ranks seventh in strokes gained off the tee.

Our third man in is 2019 champ Justin Rose. He’s got some of the best course history of anyone in the field at Torrey Pines, with three top-eight finishes in his past eight starts. Rose ranks ninth in putting over the last 50 rounds, and 13th in scoring.

We were on Sahith Theegala last week, and we’re going right back to the well. Theegala has missed only one cut on Tour in his past 12 starts.

Let’s sprinkle in Sungjae Im next, who ranks second in strokes gained off the tee over the past 50 rounds, and top-27 in every other key metric including putting and scoring.

Last but not least, we’ll round out our parlay with Taylor Montgomery. He finished 11th in 2022 in his Farmers debut and leads the field in strokes gained putting over the past 50 rounds, while ranking 11th in strokes gained off the tee.

Pick: Make the Cut Parlay (+220)

 

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